城乡居民社会养老保险个体替代率精算及实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-04 13:50

本文选题：城乡居民社会养老保险　切入点：个体替代率　出处：《金融理论与实践》2017年10期

【摘要】：以国发[2014]8号文件规定为依据,构建城乡居民社会养老保险个体替代率精算模型,对城乡居民养老金个体替代率进行测算。研究发现:城乡居民养老金个体替代率很低,城乡居民社会养老保险难以保障城乡居民在老年时的基本生活,土地养老和家庭养老在当前依然承担着无可替代的重要地位。在不考虑"中人"补缴的情况下,城乡居民养老金个体替代率总体上随着参保者参保年龄的增长呈下降趋势;在考虑"中人"补缴的情况下,城乡居民养老金个体替代率总体上随着参保者参保年龄的增长呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,有趣的是个体替代率最低点的出现和个人账户收益率有关。此外,提高个人的缴费档次、增加政府补贴、提高个人账户投资收益率,均可明显地提高城乡居民养老金个体替代率,并且如果个人账户养老金的积累速度与城乡居民人均收入增长速度持平,养老金个体替代率将会保持一定的稳定性。这一研究结果为实现城乡居民养老保险保基本、可持续的发展方针进行制度内参数优化提供了参考。
[Abstract]:On the basis of document No. 8 of Guofa [2014], an actuarial model of individual replacement rate of social old-age insurance for urban and rural residents is constructed, and the replacement rate of individual pension for urban and rural residents is calculated.It is found that the individual replacement rate of pension of urban and rural residents is very low, the social endowment insurance of urban and rural residents is difficult to ensure the basic life of urban and rural residents in old age, and land and family pension still bear an irreplaceable important position at present.Without taking into account the "middle person", the individual replacement rate of pension for urban and rural residents generally shows a downward trend with the increase of the insured's age; in the case of "middle person" 's supplementary contribution,As a whole, the individual replacement rate of pension in urban and rural residents is decreasing first and then rising with the increase of insured age. It is interesting that the low point of individual replacement rate is related to the rate of return of individual account.In addition, raising the level of individual contributions, increasing government subsidies, and raising the rate of return on investment in personal accounts can significantly increase the individual replacement rate of pensions for urban and rural residents.And if the accumulation rate of personal account pension is equal to the growth rate of per capita income of urban and rural residents, the replacement rate of individual pension will maintain a certain stability.The results of this study provide a reference for realizing the basic and sustainable development policy of urban and rural residents' old-age insurance.
【作者单位】：渤海大学经法学院;中央财经大学保险学院;渤海大学管理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“城乡统筹背景下辽宁流动人口基本医疗保障关系转移接续问题研究”(L14BJL013) 辽宁省保险学会项目“政府购买服务视角下辽宁地区大病保险供给机制研究”(2017ilkt18);辽宁省保险学会项目“供给侧改革下辽宁农业保险业实现精准扶贫的路径研究”(2017ilkt19)
【分类号】：F842.67

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