中国南方双季稻区天气指数保险的选择分析

发布时间：2018-04-08 13:43

本文选题：天气指数保险　切入点：可行性　出处：《保险研究》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文基于1980~2008年南方双季稻地区575个县粮食单产和183个气象站的数据,对天气指数保险进行了选择分析。研究发现:不同天气指数可保区的空间分布差异大;依据可保区相关系数的概率分布,发现气象产量损失与温度灾害指数之间的整体相关程度和内部匀质性均较高;随着种植制度的改变,水稻的冷害和暴雨可保区的质心向西南方向迁移,热害和干旱可保区质心向东北方向迁移;水稻的冷害可保区质心迁移距离最长,进一步结合风险分散理论则冷害风险分散程度最高。因此,综合农业气象灾害的可保性和可保区的质心迁移分析得到,在南方双季稻种植区,选择冷害指数实行天气保险的可行性最大。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of grain yield per unit and 183 weather stations in 575 counties of southern double cropping rice region from 1980 to 2008, the weather index insurance was selected and analyzed.According to the probability distribution of the correlation coefficient of the insurable area, it is found that the overall correlation degree and internal homogeneity between meteorological yield loss and temperature disaster index are higher.With the change of planting system, the centroid of rice chilling injury and rainstorm could migrate to the southwest, the center of heat and drought could migrate to the northeast, the distance of centroid migration was the longest in the chilling injury zone.Further combining with the theory of risk dispersion, the degree of risk dispersion of chilling injury is the highest.Therefore, through the analysis of the insurability of agrometeorological disasters and the centroid migration in the insured area, it is found that it is the most feasible to choose the chilling damage index to carry out weather insurance in the area of double cropping rice planting in the south of China.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院/地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：自然科学基金项目(41571493,41571088和31561143003)
【分类号】：F842.66

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