解决养老保险转轨成本的可行性研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 14:09

本文选题：养老保险 + 转轨成本　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：“老有所养”与“病有所医”、“住有所居”一样,是几千年来中国人的梦想,既是历代施行“仁政”的明君的目标,也是儒家文化下心怀天下的士大夫的梦想。可以说,无论什么时候,养老问题将一直是社会关注的焦点。今天,当中国经济总量位居世界第二的时候,养老依然是人们生活中永恒不变的主题。我国1997年以前一直实行的是现收现付制养老保险制度,即由下一代人抚养上一代人,但是随着老龄化程度的加剧,领取养老金的人越老越多,继续采用现收现付制将会产生巨大的支付压力,只能通过不断提高在职人员的缴费率以满足日益增长的退休人员的养老金需求,但是这与“减轻企业负担”的改革目标是相悖的。在这种情况下,我国引入了个人账户,旨在通过个人账户预先积累一部分基金,并实现基金的增值,从而满足未来老龄化高峰期时的养老金支付需求。1997年,国务院发布的《关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》,标志着社会统筹与个人账户相结合的职工养老保险模式初步确立。“统账结合”的养老保险制度可以有效地应对老龄化,其初衷是在不增加企业和在职职工负担的情况下,维持养老保险制度长期的收支平衡。但是,新制度运行的第一年1998年全国基本养老保险基金收支缺口就为100多亿,1999年为200多亿,直到2011年我国的收支缺口已经达到767亿元,而个人账户“空账”规模高达2.2万亿元。“统账结合”的养老模式并没有实现预期的效果。为什么个人账户会出现“空账”呢?从表象上看,由于统筹账户收不抵支,为了确保企业已退休职工的养老问题,政府不得不挪用应作为积累用的个人账户基金,从而形成了个人账户“空账”的局面。通过.分析,本文认为导致个人账户“空账”的本质原因是政府没有为制度变革付出转轨成本。因此本文在研究做实个人账户意义的基础上,指出解决转轨成本问题的重要性,并运用精算方法对未来65年的转轨成本进行预测。在阅读了相关文献的基础上,运用精算模型考察我国养老保险制度在改革过程中遇到的问题。从理论方面和实证方面做了详细的讨论,研究的主要内容如下：首先,对为什么研究我国的养老保险转轨成本进行选题说明,并对相关文献进行梳理,从两个方面总结学习评价已有的相关文献,进一步提出研究的切入点。其次,在介绍了养老保险的相关概念之后,对转轨成本的产生作了历史性分析,通过对未来个人账户“空账”规模的预测,指出解决转轨成本问题的必要性。再次,运用精算模型,按照“老人”、“中人”和“新人”三类人群对我国的养老保险转轨成本的规模进行测算。最后,针对我国的当前形势,总结比较了各种养老保险转轨成本的筹资方案。指出我国需要扩大养老保险覆盖面,但是不应该把扩面“新人”的缴费当作解决养老保险隐性债务的办法；在目前情况下,中国也不宜采用债务融资或税收融资来解决养老保险转轨成本,最切实际的解决办法还是通过调整财政支出结构,加大财政补偿力度以及双轨制“并轨”作为养老保险基金的筹资渠道。现行制度在融资方式上仍然保持现收现付制,与过去的企业现收现付制度相比,除扩大了统筹范围和强制个人缴费外,在融资方式和给付方式上没有实质的改革,仍然不能有效地应对老龄化所带来的影响。可见,做实个人账户是实现“统账结合”的关键。首先,我们要了解个人账户“空账”的形成原因。为什么养老保险系统在运行过程中会出现严重的收不抵支以及“空账”问题呢?本文认为在新体制运行之初由“老人”和“中人”引发的转轨成本是导致这一问题的根本原因。其次,我国日趋严重的老龄化现象加剧了“空账”危机。而且,在现行的养老保险覆盖人群中,机关事业单位的人员占据了一定的比重,其特殊的缴费制度也造成了一定的影响。本文将就这些因素进行逐一分析。中国是世界人口最多的发展中国家,中国的养老保险制度改革牵涉面之广、影响之大是前所未有的,必然受到全世界的关注。中国养老保险“统账结合”模式是否能够成功,在很多的程度上取决于能否解决转轨成本问题。因此对转轨成本的研究将具有重要的意义。对我国养老保险转轨成本的规模进行测算,得出较为准确和可信的结果,有利于政府在总量上对我国养老金政策的把握。通过探讨养老保险转轨成本的解决方案,并预测方案实施后的资金变动情况和彻底解决我国养老保险债务的时间,对完善我国公共养老金制度有着重要的现实意义。合理解决中国养老保险转轨成本能够缩短新制度开始规范运作的时间,有利于社会稳定和经济增长。养老保险制度的改革在一定程度上决定着中国劳动力市场能否正常和有序地进行,关系到中国社会经济能否健康持续的发展。由于发展中国家的人口经济环境、资本市场成熟程度与发达国家存在明显差异,所以发展中国不能照搬发达国家的养老保险制度改革经验。而作为最大的发展中国家,中国养老保险改革的经验教训却可以为广大发展中国家提供有益的借鉴。本文对养老保险制度的基本理论、我国养老保险转轨成本的规模以及解决养老保险转轨成本的方法进行了系统的研究。首先阐述了养老保险的基本概念和发展历程,并对相关文献进行了回顾。在对养老保险转轨成本的历史分析下,构建了精算模型,测算了我国的养老保险转轨成本规模。在测算转轨成本的同时,还对我国个人账户的空账规模进行了预测,有助于我们更好地把握我国养老保险债务的特点以及我国养老保险社会统筹基金未来的收支状况。在此基础上,结合了我国相关的制度背景和定量测算结果,对解决转轨成本的各种办法进行了可行性分析和效果分析。本文的主要研究结论如下：在考虑了“新人”扩面的情形下,对我国养老保险个人账户的“空账”规模进行了预测。通过测算,我们认为,我国不应该指望利用扩面“新人”的缴费来偿还“老人”和“中人”的债务。原因有两点：第一,利用“新人”缴费来解燃眉之急,只是目光短浅的表现,不仅违背代际公平原则,而且等到大批“新人”退休、扩面潜力逐渐消失的时候,养老金的支付危机才会真正显现出来。第二,通过“新人”长期维持高缴费率来偿还“老人”和“中人”的债务,不仅会增加扩面难度,和基金征缴难度,而且会对中国的经济发展有不利影响。所以,我国政府应当重视转轨成本,主动承担起解决转轨成本问题的责任。我国养老保险政府支出仅占国内生产总值的4.3%,低于世界的平均水平,像日本、美国和加拿大这些国家的养老保险政府支出部分已经达到了20%,我国应当调整财政支出结构压缩一些“越位”和效率不高的财政支出项目,为增加养老保险补助支出腾出“空间”。为了实现我国养老保险制度的可持续性发展,国家需要采取一些宏观经济政策,以保证预期目标的实现。具体来讲,一是通过调整财政支出结构来合理弥补养老金缺口,建立与完善社会保障预算；二是多渠道筹集养老保险资金；三是落实“双轨制”并轨。本文在定量测算的基础上,分析各种偿还养老保险债务办法在中国的可行性,并对延长退休年龄等制度内解决方案进行了定量分析,得出该政策不能从根本上解决我国的转轨成本问题,只能起到一定的缓解效果,最根本的方法应该是从制度外寻求出路。本文重点测算了未来各年养老保险补助支出占财政支出的比重,更直观和充分的说明了财政补偿的可行性,增强了说服力。本文研究解决转轨成本的途径时,从财政支出角度研究了养老金缺口的财政支付问题,而对于财政收入问题涉及较少,有待于今后进一步研究。本文主要研究的城镇养老保险问题,对农村养老保险涉及较少,随着养老保险覆盖面的不断扩大,难以对中国养老保险体系的健全和完善提出整体性建议。本文对于未来所进行的测算以及得到的结论都是建立在一定的假设条件下的。如果要得到更精准的结论,还需要结合我国养老保险改革的实际情况进行分析。
[Abstract]:It is the dream of the Chinese people for thousands of years and the dream of the scholar - doctor in the world under the Confucian culture .

In 1997 , the income and expenditure gap in China ' s basic endowment insurance fund is more than 1 billion yuan , which is more than 200 billion yuan in 1999 .

On the basis of reading the relevant literatures , the problems encountered in the reform process of the endowment insurance system of our country are investigated by using the actuarial model . The main contents of the study are as follows :

First of all , how to study the cost of the transition of endowment insurance in our country is explained , and the relevant literatures are reviewed , and the relevant literatures of the study evaluation are summarized from two aspects , and the entry point of the study is further proposed .

Secondly , after the introduction of the related concept of endowment insurance , the paper analyzes the production of transition cost , and points out the necessity of solving the problem of transition cost by forecasting the scale of " empty account " in future personal accounts .

Thirdly , using the actuarial model , according to the " old man " , " middle - person " and " new person " group , the scale of the transition cost of endowment insurance of our country is measured .

Finally , according to the current situation in our country , the financing schemes of various endowment insurance transition costs are summarized and compared . It is pointed out that China needs to expand the coverage of endowment insurance , but should not treat the contribution of " new person " as a means to solve the hidden debt of endowment insurance ;
Under the current circumstances , China should not adopt debt financing or tax financing to solve the transition cost of endowment insurance , the most practical solution is to adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure , increase financial compensation and double - track " parallel track " as the financing channel of endowment insurance fund .

Compared with the existing cash payment system in the past , there is no substantial reform in the financing mode and the payment method , but still cannot effectively deal with the impact of aging . At first , we need to know the reasons for the formation of the " empty account " of the individual account .

Why the old - age insurance system has serious income and bad debts during the operation process and the " empty account " problem ? This paper holds that the transition cost caused by " old man " and " middle - person " in the beginning of the operation of the new system is the root cause of this problem . Secondly , the phenomenon of aging in China is aggravated by the " empty account " crisis . Moreover , in the current endowment insurance coverage , the personnel of the institution and institution occupy a certain proportion , and its special payment system also has a certain influence . This article will analyze these factors one by one .

China is the most populous developing country in the world , the reform of endowment insurance system in China involves a wide range , the influence is unprecedented , it is inevitable to be concerned about the whole world .

The scale of the transition cost of endowment insurance in our country is measured , and the accurate and credible results are obtained , which is beneficial to the government ' s understanding of the pension policy in China .

Through discussing the solution of the transition cost of endowment insurance , and forecasting the change of funds after the implementation of the scheme and the time for the total settlement of our country ' s endowment insurance debt , it is of great practical significance to perfect the public pension system in China .

It is beneficial to the social stability and economic growth . The reform of the endowment insurance system determines whether the Chinese labor market can be carried out in a normal and orderly manner , and the sustainable development of the Chinese social economy .

In this paper , the basic theory of endowment insurance system , the scale of endowment insurance reform in China and the method of solving the transition cost of endowment insurance are discussed in this paper .

The paper forecasts the scale of the " Empty Account " in the personal account of endowment insurance in China under the condition of " new person " . Through calculation , we believe that China should not rely on the payment of " new person " to repay the debts of " old man " and " middle - person " .

China ' s endowment insurance government expenditure only accounts for 4.3 % of GDP , below the average of the world , like Japan , the United States and Canada ' s endowment insurance government expenditure part has reached 20 % , our country should adjust the financial expenditure structure to compress some " offside " and inefficient financial expenditure item , to increase the endowment insurance subsidy expenditure free " space " .

In order to realize the sustainable development of our country ' s endowment insurance system , some macro - economic policies need to be adopted by the country to ensure the realization of the expected goal .
Second , raise the endowment insurance fund in multi - channel ;
The third is to implement the " double track system " and the track .

On the basis of quantitative calculation , this paper analyzes the feasibility of various kinds of repayment old - age pension schemes in China , and makes quantitative analysis on the solution in the system of extending the retirement age .

In this paper , the problem of financial payment of pension gap is studied from the angle of financial expenditure when the cost of transition is solved , and the problem of fiscal revenue is less , which is expected to be further studied in the future .

This article mainly studies the urban old - age insurance problem , has little to the rural endowment insurance , with the expanding of the endowment insurance coverage , it is difficult to put forward the whole suggestion to the sound and perfect of the endowment insurance system of China .

In this paper , it is necessary to analyze the actual situation of the reform of endowment insurance in our country if more accurate conclusions are to be obtained .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67;F840.4

【参考文献】