辽宁省失业保险基金制度优化的系统动力学仿真研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 15:32

本文选题：失业保险 + 失业保险基金　；参考：《东北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：失业是一个较为普遍的国际性问题,在我国,城镇登记失业率居高不下与失业保险基金结余过高并存是亟待解决的问题,如何优化现行失业保险基金制度,实现可持续发展,成为我国失业保障部门面临的重大挑战。笔者以系统动力学理论为基础,运用AnyLogic6.9.0软件预测在现有政策不变的情况下,辽宁省未来10年的失业保险基金收支变化状况,并通过调整失业保险缴费率、职业介绍和职业培训比例、失业保险替代率和平均支付期四个参数,来模拟不同政策条件下预测期内辽宁省失业保险基金的收支变化状况。研究发现,现行政策不变条件下,预测期2013—2022年内失业保险基金收入和基金支出两者之间的差距越来越大,从而导致基金累计余额从2018年开始呈现大幅度增长的趋势,并且到2022年,这种趋势越发严重,累计余额达到588.97亿元。优化实验的研究结果表明,同时调整失业保险缴费率、职业介绍与职业培训比例和失业保险替代率三个政策参数的混合策略结果最优,到2022年,基金累计余额将降为44.07亿元,这一数值较为合理,即失业保险基金收支状况得到有效改善,基本实现了基金运行收支平衡,略有结余,失业保险基金利用社会效用最大化的目标。最后,本文对构建和完善失业保险基金制度进行优化设计,提出将适当调整失业保险费率、逐步提高失业保险替代率水平、加大职业介绍与职业培训支出和积极扩大失业保险覆盖人群等几项策略有机结合,以保证2013—-2022年期间辽宁省失业保险基金收支平衡发展的建议。
[Abstract]:Unemployment is a common international problem. In our country, the coexistence of high registered unemployment rate and excessive balance of unemployment insurance fund is an urgent problem to be solved. How to optimize the current unemployment insurance fund system and realize sustainable development, Become the major challenge that our country unemployment security department faces. Based on the theory of system dynamics, the author uses AnyLogic6.9.0 software to predict the change of unemployment insurance fund income and expenditure in Liaoning Province in the next 10 years, and adjust the contribution rate of unemployment insurance. The ratio of job introduction and vocational training, the replacement rate of unemployment insurance and the average payment period are four parameters to simulate the change of income and expenditure of unemployment insurance fund in Liaoning province under different policy conditions. The study found that the gap between the income of the unemployment insurance fund and the fund expenditure in the forecast period 2013-2022 is getting wider and larger under the condition of the current policy, which has led to a trend of a substantial increase in the cumulative balance of the fund since 2018. And by 2022, this trend became more serious, the cumulative balance reached 58.897 billion yuan. The results of the optimization experiment show that the mixed policy results of adjusting the contribution rate of unemployment insurance, the ratio of job introduction to vocational training and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance are optimal. By 2022, the cumulative balance of the fund will be reduced to 4.407 billion yuan. This value is more reasonable, that is to say, the income and expenditure of unemployment insurance fund is improved effectively, which basically achieves the goal of balance of income and expenditure, a little surplus, and the maximization of social utility of unemployment insurance fund. Finally, this paper optimizes the construction and improvement of unemployment insurance fund system, and puts forward that the unemployment insurance rate will be adjusted appropriately, and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance will be raised step by step. It is suggested that the unemployment insurance fund in Liaoning Province should be balanced in income and expenditure during the period of 2013-2022 by organically combining several strategies such as increasing the expenditure on vocational training and actively expanding the coverage of unemployment insurance.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.61;N941.3

【共引文献】