基于时间序列的N公司退保率分析及相关对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 11:03

本文选题：退保 + 时间序列　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国居民的可自行支配的收入额不断增加,国内寿险行业也快速的发展,2016年保险全行业资产总额达到12.4万亿元,较年初增加25.22%,2017年实现原保费收入1.74万亿元,比上一年度增长31.72%。国内寿险企业高速发展的时后,行业的退保率逼近国际通行的警戒水平。仅2015全年几家上市保险公司的退保金额就为2028亿元,同比增加9%,平安的退保金更是大增62.7%,很高的退保率与寿险行业当前高速发展相悖。如果说自愿存款情况下,取款自由的情况下,那么自愿投保的情况下,退保也可以自行决定的。退保对投保人、寿险公司双方都会带来不小影响。退保会影响寿险公司的现金流,对保证金造成压力,极其严重时会使偿付能力下降。退保率较高的寿险公司行业口碑,形象也会受到很大冲击。本文结合N公司的实际情况,通过大量数据分析,基于时间序列构建了沪深300指数、余额宝7日收益率、退保率等几个指标的回归分析,得出股市短期的大幅度波动对于退保率有较大影响,余额宝7日收益率等固定收益的产品在长期对退保有影响的结论。同时依托相关的财务信息构建资金链指标,也佐证了退保的增加对于寿险公司的资金流会产生较大的影响,得出股市波动在短期内影响退保率,宝宝类的影响在长期。结合目前行业与N公司的实际情况分析并总结出改善产品结构、完善服务经营、合理的多种经营模式等可供实践的方案。
[Abstract]:With the increasing amount of disposable income of Chinese residents and the rapid development of the domestic life insurance industry, the total assets of the insurance industry in 2016 reached 12.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.22 yuan over the beginning of the year, and the original premium income of 1.74 trillion yuan was realized in 2017. This is an increase of 31.72 percent over the previous year. With the rapid development of domestic life insurance enterprises, the withdrawal rate of the industry is close to the international warning level. In 2015 alone, the amount of withdrawal of several listed insurance companies was 202.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period last year, and Ping an's withdrawal gold increased by 62.7%. The very high withdrawal rate is contrary to the current rapid development of the life insurance industry. If the case of voluntary deposits, withdrawal of money free case, then voluntary insurance case, surrender insurance can also decide on its own. The withdrawal of insurance policy-holders, life insurance companies will have a significant impact on both sides. Withdrawal can affect the cash flow of life insurance companies, put pressure on margin, and reduce solvency when extremely serious. The higher surrender rate of life insurance companies industry reputation, image will also be a great impact. Combined with the actual situation of N Company, through a large number of data analysis, based on the time series, this paper constructs a regression analysis of several indicators, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, Yu'e Bao's 7 days rate of return, surrender rate and so on. It is concluded that the short-term volatility of the stock market has a great impact on the rate of withdrawal, and that the fixed income products such as Yu'e Bao's yield of 7 days have a long-term impact on the return of the guarantee. At the same time, based on the related financial information to construct the capital chain index, it also proves that the increase in the return of insurance will have a greater impact on the capital flow of life insurance companies, the stock market fluctuations in the short term affect the withdrawal rate, the impact of the baby class in the long term. According to the actual situation of the industry and N company, this paper analyzes and sums up some practical schemes, such as improving the product structure, perfecting the service management, and reasonable diversified management mode.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.3

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