二元效用模型下的养老保险与生育率研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 16:40

本文选题：世代交叠模型 + 养老金模型　；参考：《云南师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着“二孩”政策全面放开,执行30多年的“一孩”政策全面松绑。生育政策的调整,主要为了缓解越来越严重的低生育率风险和老龄化现象。“二孩”政策和养老保险之间会如何影响?对此,本文基于世代交叠和内生增长模型理论,使用最优化思想研究两者之间的关系,分析生育率与企业缴费率、养老金、退休年龄之间的关系。首先,以代表性消费者的工资收入、消费、储蓄、养育子女成本等变量为研究对象,效用函数中引入养育子女(消费)这一新变量,传统世代交替模型扩展为第一类养老金模型。通过推导最终得出生育率与企业缴费率显示解,经深入分析发现生育率与企业缴费率之间呈正相关关系,而养老金和生育率之间的关系显得较为复杂。其次,第一类养老金模型中引入退休年龄和预期寿命参量,进而扩展为第二类养老金模型。在此基础上研究发现生育率与退休年龄之间呈负相关关系。然后在满足市场均衡和社会福利最大化背景下,求解出最优企业缴费率。最后进行数值模拟并提出相关政策意见。
[Abstract]:With the full liberalization of the "two-child" policy, the "one-child" policy that has been implemented for more than 30 years has been fully liberalized. Fertility policy adjustment, mainly to alleviate the increasing risk of low fertility and aging phenomenon. What will happen between the "two-child" policy and the old-age insurance? In this paper, based on the theory of generation overlap and endogenous growth model, the relationship between fertility rate and enterprise contribution rate, pension and retirement age is analyzed by using the optimization theory. First of all, taking the variables such as wage income, consumption, savings and child-rearing cost of representative consumers as the research object, the utility function introduces the new variable of parenting (consumption). The traditional alternative generation model is extended to the first type pension model. Through the derivation, the relationship between fertility rate and enterprise contribution rate is obtained. Through in-depth analysis, it is found that there is a positive correlation between fertility rate and enterprise contribution rate, while the relationship between pension and fertility rate is more complicated. Secondly, the parameters of retirement age and life expectancy are introduced into the first type pension model, and then extended to the second type pension model. On this basis, the study found a negative correlation between fertility and retirement age. Then under the background of satisfying market equilibrium and social welfare maximization, the optimal enterprise contribution rate is solved. Finally, numerical simulation is carried out and relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F842.67

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