我国财政对基本养老保险基金缺口的承受力测度及压力测试研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 12:06

本文选题：基本养老保险基金缺口 + 财政　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：社会保障是当代社会不可缺少的福利机制,是社会发展的“安全网”和“稳定器”。基本养老保险制度作为社会保障制度的核心,有利于稳定社会秩序,促进社会的和谐发展。现阶段我国基本养老保险制度实行的是社会统筹与个人账户相结合的部分积累制,但在制度由现收现付制向部分积累制转变与发展的实践过程中,存在着转制成本大、制度缺失以及“空账”规模增大等问题,而且随着我国近年来人口老龄化进程的加快,养老金支出在不断加大。这些因素使得养老保险基金收不抵支,基本养老保险基金出现缺口,而且缺口额在不断增加。养老保险关系到人们的切身利益保障,由此养老保险基金缺口问题引起人们对养老保险基金财务可持续性的关注和重视。当养老保险基金出现支付不足时,为保证养老保险金的顺利发放,政府财政对养老保险基金负有补贴责任。而财政补贴的力度应在政府财政所能承受的范围之内,否则,可能会影响经济长期稳定发展甚至出现因财政风险过大而引发债务危机。为此,有必要对财政对基本养老保险基金缺口的承受力进行分析,并进行压力测试,测定未来短期内我国财政是否能承受基本养老保险基金缺口。这有助于完善我国的养老保险制度,有助于为政府在养老保险补贴方面的财政决策提供参考。本文借鉴了金融系统中商业银行应用宏观压力测试的思想和方法,以财政对基本养老保险基金缺口承受力为被解释变量,以影响财政对基本养老保险基金缺口承受力的各因素变量为解释变量,建立财政对基本养老保险基金缺口承受力的模型,进行模型的估计与检验；然后采用情景压力测试方法考察当对影响养老保险基金收支的关键变量的值加以改变时,我国财政对基本养老保险基金缺口的承受能力状况,进而得出未来短期我国财政能够承受养老保险基金缺口的结论。最后提出完善财政补助保障机制、提高养老保险制度的统筹层次、加强基金管理以及延长退休年龄等方面的建议。
[Abstract]:Social security is an indispensable welfare mechanism, a safety net and a stabilizer for social development. As the core of the social security system, the basic old-age insurance system is conducive to stabilizing the social order and promoting the harmonious development of the society. At present, the basic old-age insurance system in our country is based on the combination of social planning and personal accounts. However, in the process of system transformation and development from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system, there is a great cost of transformation. The system is missing and the scale of "empty account" is increasing, and with the acceleration of population aging in recent years, pension expenditure is increasing. These factors make the pension fund income not offset, the basic pension fund gap, and the gap is increasing. Pension insurance is related to the protection of people's vital interests, so the gap of pension insurance fund has aroused people's concern and attention to the financial sustainability of pension insurance funds. When the pension fund is underpaid, the government has the responsibility to subsidize the pension fund in order to guarantee the smooth issuance of the pension insurance fund. The intensity of financial subsidy should be within the range that the government finance can bear, otherwise, it may affect the long-term stable development of economy and even cause debt crisis because of excessive financial risk. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ability of finance to bear the gap of basic old-age insurance fund, and to carry out a stress test to determine whether the finance of our country can bear the gap of basic pension fund in the short term in the future. It is helpful to perfect the endowment insurance system of our country and provide reference for the government's financial decision on the pension insurance subsidy. This paper draws lessons from the idea and method of applying macro-stress test to commercial banks in the financial system, and takes the gap bearing capacity of the basic pension insurance fund as the explanatory variable. Taking the factors that affect the gap bearing capacity of the basic pension insurance fund as the explanatory variables, the model of the gap bearing capacity of the finance to the basic pension fund is established, and the model is estimated and tested. Then the situational stress test method is used to investigate the financial capacity of the basic pension fund gap when the value of the key variables affecting the income and expenditure of the pension fund is changed. And then draw the conclusion that the short-term finance of our country can bear the gap of pension fund in the future. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as perfecting the mechanism of financial subsidy, raising the overall level of pension insurance system, strengthening the fund management and extending the retirement age.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67;F812

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