时间序列模型在医保总额管理中的运用及效果评价

发布时间：2018-05-29 11:43

本文选题：时间序列 + 医保　；参考：《中国卫生事业管理》2017年04期

【摘要】：目的:探讨时间序列模型在预测医保总额中的可行性。方法:以某医院2010年~2014年发生的D市参保人实际医保记账费用数据为基础,对D市下达总额控制数据资料进行追踪研究,发现其周期性变化规律,运用SPSS19.0专家建模器建立时间序列模型,对2015年某医院发生记账费用进行预测,并用实际发生记账费用进行验证。结果:研究表明,时间序列模型测算的预测拟合值与观测值总体相差3.37%,与实际情况基本吻合。结论:时间序列模型能为医院在医保总额控制管理中的决策与应用提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the feasibility of time series model in predicting the total amount of medical insurance. Methods: based on the actual medical insurance charge data of the insured in a hospital from 2010 to 2014, the data of total amount control in D city were tracked and studied, and the regularity of periodic change was found. A time series model was established by using SPSS19.0 expert modeler to predict the charge of accounting in a hospital in 2015. Results: the results show that the predicted fitting value of the time series model is 3.37 different from the observed value, which is basically consistent with the actual situation. Conclusion: the time series model can provide reference for the decision-making and application of medical insurance total control management.
【作者单位】：南方医科大学南方医院;南方医科大学卫生管理学院;
【基金】：广东省高校哲学社科重点实验室项目“公共卫生政策研究与评价重点实验室”(编号:2015WSYS0010)
【分类号】：F842.684;R197.1

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