“全面二孩”政策对上海市城镇职工基本养老保险缴费人数影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 03:46

本文选题：全面二孩 + 单独二孩　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：老龄问题已经长时间受到全球所关注,尤其从20世纪末开始,全世界大多数国家都普遍面临这个问题。上海的人口年龄结构近年来随着社会经济的发展正在发生着巨大的变化,与全国其他城市相比,上海很早就步入了老龄化阶段,并且老龄化程度高、发展快。本文主要研究的内容包括三点:一是2030年上海按照高中低三种总和生育率方案的分年龄结构人口预测,并与当前年龄结构进行对比分析;二是2050年参与养老保险的劳动力人口预测,并与当前劳动力人口数量和劳动力比例进行分析;最后得出2050年养老保险缴费人口。三是对养老保险缴费人数增加的正负效应进行探讨,并针对负效应从生育政策和社会基本养老保险政策的角度提出政策建议。对未来人口的预测,本文采用队列要素法分年龄移算法。未来各个时期,各年龄性别的出生人数、死亡人数和迁移人数等均是变化的,借助单因素法各个手段,合理地对各个参数值进行估计,可实现准确预测;并且用该方法建立起来的模型中基本都是四则算术运算,对于数学学科知识要求不高,而且所需变量都是人口变量,在计算和推广时相对较容易。本文的主要结论包括以下几点:一是2030年上海人口总量和年龄结构预测情况。按照三个方案,到2030年与2015年相比,分别增长14.86%,12.6%和8.28%。按照"单独二孩"方案,上海的老龄化程度严重,65岁以上人口占总人口的16.95%,而按照中方案和高方案该数值分别为11.3%和7.74%。高方案中老龄化程度得到缓解;二是2050年上海实际参保人数预测情况。按照高中低方案2050年与2015年参保人数相比分别增长76.66%,50.32%和25.02%;三是2050年上海退休城镇职工领取养老金预测情况。得到2050个人领取养老金(已换算成当前水平)按三个方案进行计算分别为3721、3431、3140,与2015年城镇职工养老金平均水平3315相比,高方案增长12.26%,中方案增长3.5%,"单独二孩"方案与之相比减少5.27%。在高方案下,缴费人数的增长幅度大于领取养老金人数的增长幅度,"全面二孩"实施14年后养老保险缴费人数增加带来了正效应;中方案下领取养老保险水平基本与现在持平,而"单独二孩"方案下领取养老保险水平降低,缴费人数增加幅度小于领取养老金人数增长幅度,有限程度上提高了总和生育率,但无法抵消老龄化带来的负效应。
[Abstract]:Ageing has long been a global concern, especially since the end of the 20th century. In recent years, the age structure of Shanghai's population is undergoing great changes with the development of social economy. Compared with other cities in China, Shanghai has stepped into an aging stage very early, with a high degree of aging and rapid development. The main contents of this paper include three points: first, the age structure population forecast of Shanghai in 2030 according to the three programs of high school and low total fertility, and compared with the current age structure; The second is the labor force population forecast of the pension insurance in 2050, and the analysis with the current labor force population and the proportion of labor force. Finally, the contribution population of the pension insurance in 2050 is obtained. The third is to discuss the positive and negative effects of the increase in the number of endowment insurance contributions, and to put forward policy recommendations from the perspective of fertility policy and social basic endowment insurance policy. To predict the future population, this paper uses the cohort element method to divide the age shift algorithm. In the future, the number of birth, death and emigration of each age and sex are all changed. By means of single factor method, the values of each parameter can be reasonably estimated, and the accurate prediction can be realized. The model established by this method is based on four arithmetic operations, which requires little knowledge of mathematics, and the variables required are population variables, which are relatively easy to calculate and popularize. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the population and age structure of Shanghai in 2030. According to the three programs, by 2030 compared with 2015, the increase of 14.86% and 8.28% respectively. According to the "single two-child" scheme, the population aged over 65 years old in Shanghai accounts for 16.95% of the total population, while 11.3% and 7.74% respectively according to the medium and high schemes. The aging degree of the high plan is alleviated, the second is the forecast of the actual insured population in Shanghai in 2050. According to the low plan of senior high school in 2050 and 2015, the number of insured persons increased 76.660.32% and 25.02% respectively; third, the forecast of retirement pension for urban workers in Shanghai in 2050. A total of 2050 pensioners (who have been converted to the current level) have been calculated as 3721 / 3431 / 3140 according to three schemes, respectively. Compared with the average pension level of urban workers in 2015, the high scheme has increased by 12.26 percent, the middle plan has increased by 3.5 percent, and the "single two-child" scheme has decreased by 5.27m compared with the average level of the urban worker's pension in 2015. Under the high scheme, the increase in the number of contributors is greater than the increase in the number of pensioners, and the increase in the number of contributory contributions to the old-age insurance after 14 years of implementation of the "all-around two-child" scheme has had a positive effect; the level of receiving old-age insurance under the medium scheme is basically the same as that of the present scheme. However, the level of old-age insurance under the "single two-child" scheme is lower, and the increase in the number of contributors is smaller than the increase in the number of pensioners, which increases the total fertility rate to a limited extent, but cannot offset the negative effects of aging.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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