中国城镇职工基本养老保险精算平衡的条件

发布时间：2018-05-30 21:16

本文选题：城镇职工 + 基本养老保险　；参考：《金融经济学研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：根据社会养老保险精算的基本原理,结合中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的具体内容,采用符合实际和逻辑一致的精算假设,以2015年末为评估时间点,以退休待遇制度承诺兑现为目标,对未来75年基金收支及平衡状况进行模拟运算。精算结果显示,中国城镇职工基本养老保险保持收支平衡需满足以下约束条件:总和生育率于2050年提高到更替水平;适当延迟职工退休年龄,至2037年达到男、女职工退休年龄分别为65岁和60岁;将基本养老保险的制度覆盖率、遵缴率、缴费工资率逐步提高到62%、90%和80%的目标值;根据《社会保险法》规定的政府责任,将每年提供的财政补贴应逐步提高到占当年GDP1%的水平。
[Abstract]:According to the basic principles of social endowment insurance, combined with the specific contents of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China, the actuarial assumptions consistent with reality and logic are adopted, and the time point for assessment is the end of 2015. In order to fulfill the promise of retirement treatment system, the fund income and expenditure and balance in the next 75 years are simulated. Actuarial results show that the following constraints need to be met to maintain the balance of income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for Chinese urban workers: the total fertility rate rises to replacement level in 2050; and the retirement age of workers is appropriately delayed to reach male in 2037. The retirement age of female workers is 65 and 60 years respectively; the coverage of the basic old-age insurance system, the compliance rate and the contribution wage rate are gradually increased to the target of 6290% and 80%; the government's responsibilities under the Law on Social Insurance, Annual subsidies should be gradually raised to a level of 1% of GDP that year.
【作者单位】：广东金融学院保险系;加州大学河滨分校安德森管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(14BSH142) 广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划项目(GD15YYJ04)
【分类号】：D669.6;F842.67

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