新疆兵团第一师基本养老保险基金收支预测及分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 01:40

本文选题：城镇基本养老保险 + 收支预测　；参考：《新疆农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：二十世纪人口发展出现生育率下降和人口平均预期寿命延长两大方面现象,给全球带来老龄化的问题,影响着全球一百七十多个已经建立养老保险制度的国家,给社会平稳发展带来危机。养老保险基金收支平衡问题是养老保险制度重要组成部分,也是国际社会共同关注的问题。本文主要对第一师城镇目前基本养老保险基金存在的问题进行研究,并对影响第一师基本养老保险基金收支平衡的因素进行分析,通过建立基本养老保险基金收支平衡的测算模型,对第一师城镇基本养老金进行预测分析,发现从2036年起,累计基金缺口为负值,而且缺口越来越大,至2050年,缺口为9138万元,按现行政策将来政府的支付压力很大。因此,应对现有的政策及措施进行改革,对征缴率、替代率、缴费比例等现行的因素进行调节来改善第一师基本养老保险基金的收支状况,使其收支相对平衡。
[Abstract]:In the 20th century, the decline in fertility rate and the increase in average life expectancy of the population in the twentieth century have brought about an ageing problem around the world, affecting more than 170 countries around the world that have established pension insurance systems. Bring the crisis to the steady development of the society. The balance of income and expenditure of pension insurance fund is an important part of pension insurance system, and it is also a common concern of the international community. This paper mainly studies the problems existing in the basic old-age insurance fund of the first division, and analyzes the factors that affect the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund in the first division. By establishing the calculation model of the balance of income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance fund, this paper forecasts and analyzes the basic pension of the first division town. It is found that from 2036 onwards, the cumulative fund gap is negative, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. By 2050, the gap will be 91.38 million yuan. According to the current policy, there will be great pressure on the government to pay in the future. Therefore, we should reform the existing policies and measures, adjust the current factors, such as levy rate, substitution rate, payment ratio and so on, to improve the income and expenditure of the first division's basic pension insurance fund and make its income and expenditure relatively balanced.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67

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