从“单独二孩”走向“全面二孩”:中国养老金支付危机能破解吗

发布时间：2018-06-15 18:42

本文选题：“全面二孩”政策 + 养老保险基金　；参考：《财贸经济》2016年07期

【摘要】：随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,中国养老保险基金支付压力不断上升。政府通过调整生育政策以缓解老龄化程度,进而减轻养老保险基金支付压力。本文以2016年1月1日中国生育政策正式从"单独二孩"走向"全面二孩"为背景,通过建立精算模型分析调整生育政策对养老保险基金财务运行状况的影响,研究发现:(1)如果继续实行"一胎"政策,养老保险基金不可避免出现累计赤字(支付危机);(2)如果所有符合"单独二孩"规定的夫妇生育二孩,养老保险基金出现累计赤字的时点推迟约9年;(3)在不同"全面二孩"生育意愿下,养老保险基金出现累计赤字的时点均有所推迟,如果生育意愿达到54%及以上,养老保险基金在2090年及以前不出现累计赤字。上述结论均通过敏感性测试。可见,"全面二孩"政策可以缓解养老保险基金支付压力,如果要达到破解支付危机的目的,还有赖于生育意愿的提高。
[Abstract]:As the aging population continues to deepen, China's pension fund payment pressure is rising. The government adjusts the fertility policy to ease the aging, thereby reducing the pressure on pension funds to pay. Based on the background of China's fertility policy from "single two-child" to "all-around second-child" on January 1, 2016, this paper analyzes the impact of the adjustment of birth policy on the financial operation of pension insurance fund by establishing an actuarial model. The study found that if the "one-child" policy continues, the pension fund will inevitably run a cumulative deficit (paying for the crisis) if all couples who meet the "single two-child" rule have a second child. The time of the accumulated deficit of the pension fund is delayed by about nine years.) under different "all-around two-child" fertility intentions, the time when the pension fund has a cumulative deficit has been delayed, if the willingness to have a child reaches 54% or more. Pension funds did not run cumulative deficits in 2090 and before. All the above conclusions passed the sensitivity test. It can be seen that the "comprehensive two-child" policy can ease the pressure on pension funds to pay, and if the purpose of solving the payment crisis is to solve the problem, it also depends on the improvement of fertility willingness.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;江苏大学管理学院;山西财经大学统计学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“生育政策调整对我国社会保险基金可持续性的影响评估及相关对策研究”(15XRK005)
【分类号】：F842.67

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