基于随机人口预测的基本养老金资金缺口研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 03:32

本文选题：扩展的共同因子模型 + 随机人口预测　；参考：《南开大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着科学技术的发展和生活条件的不断改善,人们的死亡率下降而寿命延长。这会对一个国家的人口结构产生显著的影响,其突出表现就是老龄人口比重上升,产生严重的老龄化现象。由于我国计划生育政策的长期实施,生育率在近三十年保持在较低的水平上,这更加剧了我国的老龄化问题。老龄化问题是导致我国基本养老金缺口产生和扩大的最重要的原因之一,而养老金制度上的一些缺陷使得缺口问题更加严重。本文以基于Lee-Carter模型的扩展的共同因子模型来估计中国人口未来的死亡率变化,结合中国生育率数据的实际情况分析其发展趋势,并进行随机人口预测。基于人口预测的结果和当前我国的基本养老金制度估计缺口的规模,缺口产生的原因并提出缩小缺口的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of living conditions, the death rate of people decreases and life expectancy increases. This will have a significant impact on the population structure of a country, its outstanding performance is the proportion of aging population rising, resulting in a serious aging phenomenon. Due to the long-term implementation of the family planning policy in China, the fertility rate has remained at a relatively low level in the past 30 years, which has exacerbated the aging problem in China. The aging problem is one of the most important reasons leading to the generation and expansion of the basic pension gap in China, and some defects in the pension system make the gap problem more serious. In this paper, the extended common factor model based on Lee-Carter model is used to estimate the future mortality changes of Chinese population, and the trend of development is analyzed according to the actual situation of China's fertility data, and the random population prediction is carried out. Based on the results of population forecast and the current basic pension system in China, the size of the gap and the causes of the gap are estimated, and some policy suggestions for reducing the gap are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.2;F842.67;F224

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