广东社会养老保险对城镇居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 04:26

本文选题：广东社会养老保险 + 城镇居民消费　；参考：《广东商学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国在经济快速增长的同时，社会发展的相对滞后和社会保障体系的缺失与不完善成为居民消费倾向下降的重要原因。在欧债危机与贸易保护主义抬头的国际背景下，国内收入分配差距的趋势仍在扩大的国内背景下，刺激消费，扩大内需成为我国当前和今后很长一段时期里经济增长的主要途径。当前，居民消费不振是扩大内需的主要瓶颈，社会养老保险制度作为影响居民消费的主要因素之一，其发展和完善在很大程度上影响着消费增长。研究养老保险支出与居民消费的关系，具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文的研究思路如下：首先，根据阅读整理的文献，对社会养老保险影响城镇居民消费进行理论方面的研究，主要介绍了绝对收入假说和莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说等西方经典理论。其次，对我国养老保险体制的历史演变和广东社会养老保险的现状进行阐述，着重分析新型城镇社会养老保险试点工作开展以来广东社会养老保险的发展现状。在此基础上，统计分析广东城镇居民消费变动趋势、消费总量和结构变化，总结出了影响广东城镇居民消费支出的养老保险因素。再次，本文根据生命周期理论构建养老保险与城镇居民消费支出的消费函数模型，，利用广东省2005-2008年间16个地市的面板数据和2001-2011年的时间序列数据进行实证分析。实证分析表明，社会养老保险支出显著地影响了广东省城镇居民消费的支出。最后，结合理论、实证研究，进一步得出本文研究结论，在此基础上提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth in China, the relative lag of social development and the lack and imperfection of social security system have become the important reasons for the decline of consumption tendency of residents. In the international context of the European debt crisis and the rise of trade protectionism, the trend of domestic income distribution gaps is still widening in the domestic context, stimulating consumption, Expanding domestic demand has become the main way of economic growth at present and for a long time to come. At present, the sluggish consumption of residents is the main bottleneck of expanding domestic demand. As one of the main factors affecting the consumption of residents, the development and perfection of the social old-age insurance system has a great impact on the growth of consumption. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between endowment insurance expenditure and resident consumption. The research ideas of this paper are as follows: firstly, according to the literature, the paper studies the influence of social endowment insurance on the consumption of urban residents. This paper mainly introduces the absolute income hypothesis and Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis. Secondly, the paper expounds the historical evolution of China's endowment insurance system and the present situation of Guangdong's social old-age insurance, focusing on the analysis of the development status of Guangdong's social old-age insurance since the pilot work of new urban social old-age insurance was carried out. On this basis, the change trend of consumption, the total amount and structure of consumption of urban residents in Guangdong are analyzed statistically, and the pension insurance factors that affect the consumption expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong are summarized. Thirdly, according to the theory of life cycle, this paper constructs the consumption function model of endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption expenditure, using the panel data of 16 prefectures in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2008 and the time series data from 2001 to 2011 to carry on the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis shows that the expenditure of social pension insurance has a significant impact on the expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong province. Finally, combined with the theory and empirical research, the conclusion of this paper is drawn, and the policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F842.67

【参考文献】