我国老年长期护理保险定价研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 14:44

本文选题：长期护理险 + 均衡保费　；参考：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国面临的人口老龄化问题日益严重,加上慢性疾病发病率逐年提升,越来越多的老年人将面临年老后生活不能自理的问题。但是家庭结构的变化和人口流动性的增加都使失能老人单纯依靠家庭护理变得越来越困难,这从客观上促进了护理院护理这种新型行业的发展,但也意味着许多老年人需要准备一笔资金来保障晚年的护理问题。老年长期护理险就是为了解决这笔护理资金问题而诞生的-种人身保险产品。在很多发达国家,长期护理险已经作为社会保险或者商业保险,形成了比较成熟的运作体系。但是在目前的国内市场上,并没有能够真正解决老人在失能时候所需要的长期护理保障的保险产品。本文对国外的长期护理险模式做了介绍并指出了应该借鉴的经验。同时选择了曼联模型,利用我国的统计数据,在一定的假设前提下对我国的长期护理险费率做了精算研究和费用负担分析。结果表明,在较为适合市场需求的保险期限为20年、给付期限为5年的保险假设前提下,如果以当前护理费用市场的价格作为我国长期护理险的赔付标准,长期护理险的均衡纯保费是一般的城镇居民可以承受的。但是对于失能率较高、收入反而较低的乡村居民来讲,长期护理险的费用偏高,这就需要政府有一定的作为。最后,本文就长期护理险在经营过程中可能遇到的风险进行了分析,并对应对风险的措施提出了一点见解。更保守的定价方式、根据利润测算不断的调整费率以及金融产品的创新都是可以用了规避风险的方式。
[Abstract]:The problem of aging population in China is becoming more and more serious, and the incidence of chronic diseases is increasing year by year. More and more elderly people will face the problem of being unable to take care of themselves after old age. However, the changes in family structure and the increase in population mobility make it more and more difficult for the disabled elderly to rely solely on family care, which objectively promotes the development of nursing home nursing, a new type of industry. But it also means that many older people need to set aside money to secure care in their old age. Old age long-term care insurance is to solve the problem of care funds and born-life insurance products. In many developed countries, long-term care insurance has formed a more mature operation system as social insurance or commercial insurance. But in the current domestic market, there is no real solution to the elderly in the event of disability need long-term care insurance products. This paper introduces the long-term nursing insurance model abroad and points out the experience that should be used for reference. At the same time, the author chooses the Manchester United model and makes an actuarial study and cost burden analysis on the long term nursing insurance rate under certain assumptions by using the statistical data of our country. The results show that under the assumption that the insurance period is 20 years and the payment period is 5 years, if the current market price of nursing expenses is taken as the standard of long-term care insurance in China, The balanced net premium of long-term care insurance is affordable to average urban residents. But for the rural residents with higher disability rate and lower income, the cost of long-term care insurance is on the high side, which requires the government to do something. Finally, this paper analyzes the risks that may be encountered in the long-term nursing insurance, and puts forward some opinions on the measures to deal with the risks. More conservative pricing, constantly adjusted rates based on profit estimates, and innovation in financial products can be risk-averse.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.6;F224

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