社会医疗保险基金收支平衡与风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 18:41

本文选题：风险评估 + 医疗保险基金　；参考：《中国卫生经济》2017年07期

【摘要】：目的:分析我国社会医疗保险基金收支平衡变化情况,评估基金超支风险发生的时点和程度。方法:根据社会医疗保险基金自1995年到2015年21年间收入、支出和年度结余情况,利用时间序列模型预测到2030年的收支、结余情况。结果:社会医疗保险基金收入与支出呈逐年递增趋势。基金支出与基金收入比值从1995年的75.35%上升到1998年的87.96%,随后逐渐下降到2001年的63.63%。其后又逐渐上升,2015年到达83.19%。预测到2021年基金收入总额为20 075.10亿元,支出为20 256.40亿元,年度基金支出大于年度基金收入。结论:在我国老龄化趋势不断加剧的背景下,医疗费用快速上涨,社会医疗保险基金的收支平衡压力越来越大,预测到2021年基金将出现收不抵支的超支风险。
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the changes of balance of income and expenditure of social medical insurance fund in China and to evaluate the time and degree of the risk of overspending. Methods: according to the income, expenditure and annual balance of the Social Medical Insurance Fund from 1995 to 2015, the time series model was used to predict the income and expenditure and the balance from 2030. Results: the income and expenditure of social medical insurance fund were increasing year by year. The ratio of fund expenditure to fund income rose from 75.35% in 1995 to 87.96% in 1998, and then gradually decreased to 63.63% in 2001. Then it went up, reaching 83.19 in 2015. The total fund income by 2021 is estimated to be 2.00751 trillion yuan and the expenditure is 2.02564 trillion yuan. The annual fund expenditure is larger than the annual fund income. Conclusion: under the background of increasing aging trend in China, the medical cost is rising rapidly, and the balance of income and expenditure of social medical insurance fund is under increasing pressure. It is predicted that by 2021, the fund will face the risk of overspending.
【作者单位】：潍坊医学院;"健康山东"重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心;潍坊市人力资源与社会保障局;济宁医学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71273191,71673202) 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2014GL012,ZR2016HL45) 山东省教育厅人文社科项目(J15WB02,J15WB43) “健康山东”重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心重点资助项目(XT1401001,XT1401002,XT1401003)
【分类号】：F842.684;R197.1

【参考文献】