城乡养老保险制度结构的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 16:42

本文选题：城乡一体化 + 养老保险体系　；参考：《上海工程技术大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的养老保险一直在向“三支柱”协调发展的方向努力，但现实是第一层次的基本养老保险依旧承担着主要的养老职能，第二层次企业年金和第三层次个人商业养老保险发展水平都不高。养老保险各层次发展不合理，导致我国养老保险体系发展遭遇“瓶颈”，无法充分发挥“安全网”的功能、满足人们多层次的养老需求、提高养老保险的总体保障水平。再加上我国现在城乡之间、不同地区之间、不同人群之间实行的养老制度存在明显差异，在地方分割的情况下难以统筹，“碎片化”趋势严重。多种养老保险制度共存，不利于全国统筹和转移接续，养老保险制度的城乡一体化是时代的发展趋势。因此，有必要对城乡一体化背景下的养老保险制度结构进行探究。仿真研究要以改革设计后的城乡养老保险体系制度结构为基础，改革设计包括了四方面的内容：制度层次结构、保障水平、责任分担机制和筹资模式。城乡多层次养老保险制度结构的建立需要各层次间建立一个合理的比例关系，这种比例关系通常用各层次的养老金替代率来衡量，关键在于各个层次保障水平的确定要与该层次养老保险的功能相适应。因此本文的仿真主要是针对保障水平进行研究，养老保险体系层次结构的比例主要通过保障水平来体现，对其他两个比例暂不深入研究。从对国内外城乡养老保险体系的研究状况进行梳理与分析的结果可以看出，国外养老保险体系的研究主要集中在成功经验与教训、多层次养老保险体系在不同国家的适用性等方面；国内的研究则主要是对制度改革的经济学分析、多支柱模式的实践与可行性、或是针对某一支柱的分析，很少从定量的角度对养老保险体系各制度层次的保障水平进行综合研究。因此，本文旨在通过定量仿真方法研究，在借鉴前人研究基础上，主要从以下三个方面进行了探讨与分析： 1、城乡一体化背景下我国养老保险体系的改革设计。通过文献研究法，了解我国目前养老保险体系的现状，结合典型国家养老保险体系的理论和经验，从筹资模式、保障水平、层次结构和责任主体四个方面，构建出一个适应我国经济社会发展水平，以公平为导向，以城乡一体化为目标的养老保险制度结构。 2、各层次保障水平的系统动力学分析。根据我国国情，结合宏观经济学相关理论以及统计学对模型的假设、方程及参数进行界定和估计。通过对养老保险体系这个复杂的社会经济系统进行分析，将要素分为宏观经济、消费储蓄、人口、资本积累和养老保险体系内部五大模块，构建城乡养老保险体系各层次保障水平的系统动力学模型。根据4条基本假设进行系统仿真，模拟得到零层次的国民基础养老金替代率趋向于19.28%左右，，第一层次的基本养老保险替代率在28.60%左右，第二层次的职业年金替代率在20.87%左右，第三层次的个人储蓄型养老保险替代率在6.94%左右。各层次替代率的比例为：19.28%：28.60%：20.87%：6.94%，即1：1.48：1.08：0.36。改革设计后的养老保险体系总替代率达到了75.69%，与现行基本养老保险40%-50%的替代率相比，目前的保障水平只达到了改革后城乡养老保险体系“零层次+第一层次”的水平，第二、第三层次还有很大的发展空间。 3、根据模型的仿真结果，对我国现有养老保险制度向城乡一体化养老保险制度转化的改革提供建议。城乡养老保险体系，是对原有养老保险制度结构和现有养老保险资源利益格局的调整，并非是将原有的制度结构完全推翻，而是更进一步的推进和深化。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance in our country has been trying to coordinate the development of the "three pillar", but the reality is that the basic endowment insurance of the first level still bears the main pension function, the second levels of enterprise annuity and the level of the third level personal commercial pension insurance are not high. The development of the pension insurance at all levels is unreasonable, which leads to the pension of our country. The development of the insurance system is in a "bottleneck", which can not give full play to the function of the "safety net", meet people's multi-level needs for the aged and improve the overall security level of the pension insurance. As a whole, the trend of "fragmentation" is serious. The co-existence of various old-age insurance systems is not conducive to the overall planning and transfer of the whole country. The integration of urban and rural areas in the pension insurance system is the trend of the times. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the structure of the pension insurance system under the background of urban and rural integration.
The simulation research should be based on the system structure of urban and rural endowment insurance system after the reform and design, and the reform design includes four aspects: the system level structure, the level of guarantee, the responsibility sharing mechanism and the financing mode. The establishment of a reasonable proportion relationship between the urban and rural multi-level endowment insurance system needs to establish a reasonable proportion relationship between various levels, this kind of comparison. The relationship is usually measured by the pension replacement rate at all levels, the key is that the assurance level of each level should be adapted to the function of the pension insurance at this level. Therefore, the simulation of this paper is mainly aimed at the research of the level of security. The proportion of the hierarchy of the pension insurance system is mainly reflected by the level of the security, and the other two The proportion is not studied in depth.
From the analysis of the status of urban and rural endowment insurance system at home and abroad, it can be seen that the research of foreign endowment insurance system mainly focuses on the successful experience and lessons, and the applicability of the multi-level old-age insurance system in different countries, and the domestic research is mainly the economic analysis of the system reform. The practice and feasibility of the pillar model, or the analysis of a pillar, seldom make a comprehensive study of the security level of the institutional levels of the pension system from a quantitative point of view. Therefore, this paper aims to study and analyze the following three aspects, on the basis of the previous research, through the quantitative simulation method.
1, the reform and design of the old-age insurance system in China under the background of urban and rural integration. Through the literature research method, we understand the present situation of the endowment insurance system in our country, and combine the theory and experience of the typical state pension insurance system, and build a new economy and society from four aspects of the financing mode, the level of security, the structure of the hierarchy and the owner of the responsibility. Development level, the structure of endowment insurance system with fairness as the goal and urban and rural integration as the goal.
2, the system dynamics analysis of the level of each level. According to the national conditions of our country, combined with the theory of macroeconomics and statistics, the equations and parameters are defined and estimated. Through the analysis of the complex social and economic system of the endowment insurance system, the factors are divided into macro economy, consumption savings, population, and capital. The system dynamics model of all levels of urban and rural endowment insurance system is constructed by five main modules in the system of accumulation and pension insurance. The system simulation is carried out according to the 4 basic assumptions. The substitution rate of national basic pension is about 19.28%, and the replacement rate of basic pension insurance in the first layer is about 28.60%, The substitution rate of occupational pension in the second level is about 20.87%, and the substitution rate of the third level personal savings pension insurance is about 6.94%. The proportion of the replacement rates at all levels is: 19.28%:28.60%:20.87%:6.94%, that is, the total replacement rate of the pension insurance system after the reform and design of 1:1.48:1.08:0.36. reaches 75.69%, and the basic old-age insurance system is in force with the current basic endowment insurance. Compared with the replacement rate of the risk 40%-50%, the current level of security only reached the level of "zero levels + the first level" of the urban and rural endowment insurance system after the reform, and the second and third levels still have a lot of space for development.
3, according to the simulation results of the model, it provides suggestions for the reform of the existing pension insurance system in China to the urban and rural integration endowment insurance system. The urban and rural endowment insurance system is the adjustment of the original old-age insurance system structure and the existing endowment insurance resources interest pattern, not to completely overthrow the original institutional structure, but to be more advanced. Progress and deepening of the step.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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