再评世界银行1994年《应对老龄化危机》:客观质疑与理性启示

发布时间：2018-07-17 14:48

【摘要】：中国主要依据世界银行1994年的报告对养老金制度实施激进改革之后已历20载。与许多其他采用而后放弃这个改革模式的国家一样,中国目前也面临着困境。本文从理论和过去20多年全球养老金改革实践两个角度,反思世界银行1994年报告的核心观点,希望可以帮助中国重建一个确保能提供更适当水平、并更具有财政可持续性的养老金制度。本文对积累制养老金,从是否能够应对人口老龄化并促进经济增长、对代际间收入分配是否公平、公共养老金在老年人收入中的份额及累进性、政策的比较优势与目标之间的匹配关系等角度进行了分析,指出:世界银行1994年的报告离一个基于科学证明的经验(实证)研究尚差很远,故发达国家均未采用这个改革模式,而是通过实施自动平衡机制解决了养老金制度的财政可持续性问题。本文建议中国采用记账制养老金来解决目前的困境。
[Abstract]:China has been reforming its pension system for 20 years, largely on the basis of the World Bank's 1994 report. Like many other countries that have adopted and abandoned this model of reform, China is now in trouble. From the perspective of theory and the practice of global pension reform in the past 20 years, this paper reflects on the core point of view of the 1994 report of the World Bank, hoping to help China rebuild a more appropriate level. And a more financially sustainable pension system. In this paper, we discuss whether the accumulation pension can cope with the aging of the population and promote economic growth, whether the distribution of income between generations is fair, the share and progression of public pension in the income of the elderly. This paper analyzes the matching relationship between policy comparative advantage and objectives, and points out that the 1994 report of the World Bank is still far from a scientifically proven empirical study, so the developed countries have not adopted this reform model. Instead, the financial sustainability of the pension system is solved through the implementation of an automatic balance mechanism. This paper suggests that China adopt the accounting pension system to solve the current dilemma.
【作者单位】：日本一桥大学日本养老金与老年计划综合研究所;中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【分类号】：F842.67

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