山东省能繁母猪保险政策的实施效果分析与优化

发布时间：2018-08-04 09:55

【摘要】：在我国，以生猪为主的畜牧业生产，对国民经济的发展具有重要的促进作用。养猪收入是农民最主要的务农收入之一，也是农民增产增收的重要手段。我国绝大多数地区的生猪养殖模式还是属于小规模的散养形式，在生猪养殖过程中,包括自然灾害、疫病以及意外事故等风险发生频率较高，尤其是灾情严重的年份，将会给生猪养殖场（户）带来严重的经济损失。在农村生猪养殖中，养殖场（户）最担心的就是风险分散的问题，生猪产业的这种脆弱性致使我国生猪养殖场（户）亟需一种能够转移分散风险和分摊经济损失的风险管理机制，政府为扶持生猪养殖业发展而提出的能繁母猪保险可以有效解决这种问题。山东省作为全国生猪养殖和消费大省，对其进行能繁母猪保险的优化研究具有很好的代表性，论文研究不仅对完善山东省能繁母猪保险具有指导意义，同时对其他省份乃至全国也有一定的借鉴意义。本文主要从山东省能繁母猪保险的实施效果评价与分析、养殖场（户）的购买决策制约因素分析、道德风险的博弈分析以及优化能繁母猪保险的对策四个步骤展开研究。首先，本文分析了山东省能繁母猪保险政策实施以来的概况，得出政策实施以来，虽然各实施主体都主动参与，但实施效果没能达到预期，保险公司承保积极性逐年下降，养殖场（户）参保积极性不高。在此基础上介绍了山东省能繁母猪保险的实施方式，归纳为准商业性的实施方式和联合承保的实施方式。进而评价了山东省能繁母猪保险的实施效果，肯定了政策实施以来对调动养殖场（户）积极性和分散养殖风险等方面的积极作用，同时指出当前山东省能繁母猪保险在养殖场（户）、保险公司、政府、保险条款设计四个方面存在不同程度的问题。然后，本文运用二元Logistic回归模型，利用山东省17地市的问卷调查结果，对养殖场（户）能繁母猪保险购买决策制约因素进行了实证分析。按照养殖场（户）的基本特征、生产经营特征、保险及风险认知特征对养殖场（户）的调查问卷进行了描述性统计分析，通过回归分析，，得出“养殖规模”、“养殖年限”、“是否加入合作社组织”、“是否与公司签订合同”、“生猪疫病等自然风险认知”、“是否经常注射疫苗”、“对险条款的认知程度”等七个变量对养殖场（户）能繁母猪保险的购买决策有非常显著或比较显著的影响。其次，本文针对山东省能繁母猪保险中养殖场（户）存在的道德风险，进行了博弈分析，确定了保险公司和养殖场（户）混合策略纳什均衡的形成，进而分析了养殖场（户）道德风险的治理途径，得到结论：降低保险公司风险偏好、养殖场（户）违规偏好、保险公司的监督成本、养殖场（户）违规生产获得的收益，增加违规生产的罚款、合规生产获得的收益为、违规生产情况下的成本、养殖场（户）违规生产的信用损失，最终可以有效的降低养殖场（户）的道德风险。最后，本文从养殖场（户）、政府、保险公司三个层面提出了山东省能繁母猪保险的优化途径。
[Abstract]:In China, the production of animal husbandry based on pig mainly plays an important role in promoting the development of the national economy. The income of pig raising is one of the most important agricultural income of farmers, and is also an important means to increase the production and increase the income of the farmers. The risk of natural disasters, epidemic diseases and accidents is more frequent, especially in years of severe disaster, which will bring serious economic losses to the pig farms (households). In the rural pig breeding, the most concerned problem of the farm (household) is the problem of dispersing the risk. The frailty of the pig industry leads to the pig farm of our country. There is an urgent need for a risk management mechanism that can transfer risk and share economic losses. The complex sow insurance proposed by the government to support the development of the pig breeding industry can effectively solve this problem.
Shandong Province, as a large province of pig breeding and consumption in China, has a very good representation for the optimization of its complex sow insurance. The paper not only has the guiding significance to improve the complex sow insurance in Shandong Province, but also has some reference meaning to other provinces and even the whole country. This paper mainly from Shandong Province, which can be complicated by sow insurance. The evaluation and analysis of the implementation effect, the analysis of the restricting factors of the purchase decision of the farm (household), the game analysis of the moral hazard and the optimization of the Countermeasures for the complex sow insurance are studied in four steps.
First of all, this paper analyzes the general situation of the insurance policy in Shandong province. Since the implementation of the policy, the implementation effect has not reached the expectation, the insurance company's enthusiasm for insurance is declining year by year, and the enthusiasm of the farm (household) is not high. On this basis, it introduces the breeding of the sows in Shandong province. The implementation of risk is summed up as the implementation of quasi commercial and the implementation of joint underwriting. Then it evaluates the implementation effect of Shandong province's complex sow insurance, affirms the active use of the enthusiasm of the farm (households) and the risk of dispersing culture since the implementation of the policy. At the same time, it points out that the current Shandong province can be complicated by sow insurance. There are varying degrees of problems in four aspects: farms, households, insurance companies, governments, and insurance clauses.
Then, using the two yuan Logistic regression model and using the questionnaire survey results of 17 cities in Shandong Province, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the factors restricting the purchase decision of the breeding farm (household) sow insurance. According to the analysis of sex statistics, we can get the "breeding scale", "breeding year", "whether to join the cooperative organization", "whether to sign a contract with the company", "natural risk cognition of pig epidemic disease", "whether the vaccine is often injected", "the cognition of the risk clause", and so on, seven variables can be used for breeding farms (households) to breed sows Insurance purchase decisions have a very significant or significant impact.
Secondly, in view of the moral hazard of the breeding farm (household) in Shandong Province, this paper makes a game analysis, and determines the formation of Nash equilibrium of the mixed strategy of insurance companies and farms (households), and then analyzes the ways to govern the moral hazard of farm farms (households). It is concluded that the risk preference of the insurance companies is reduced and the farms (households) are violated. The supervision cost of the insurance company, the income obtained by the illegal production of the farm (household), the fine of the illegal production, the income obtained by the compliance production, the cost under the illegal production, the credit loss of the illegal production of the farm (household), can effectively reduce the moral hazard of the farm (household).
Finally, from the three levels of farms, households, government and insurance companies, this paper puts forward the optimization way of sow insurance in Shandong province.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.3;F842.66;F224.32

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