“二孩”政策背景下我国养老保险制度精算平衡问题研究
发布时间：2018-09-18 18:04
【摘要】：近三十多年来,我国实行严格的计划生育政策使得出生人口下降,同时经济的发展使平均寿命增加,老年抚养比从1996年的9.5加速上升到2015年的14.3,人口结构进一步恶化将会使基本养老保险保障体系遭受巨大压力。为缓解养老压力,我国计划生育政策发生了较大的转变:由一孩到“单独二孩”,再到现在的全面二孩。同时,为惠及全体城乡居民,由新型农村养老保险和城镇居民养老保险合并而来的城乡居民养老保险成为我国养老保险体系的重要组成部分。因此在养老保险制度改革以及生育政策改变的双重背景下,我国养老保障体系的压力是否能够得到有效地缓解,同时对于并轨后的城乡居民养老保险体制如何进一步完善以适应我国的现实情况都成为新的研究课题。本文结合统计学、精算学以及人口学等学科的相关知识建立了人口预测模型、基金收入和支出精算模型,测算了我国养老保险(包括城镇职工养老保险和城乡居民养老保)的收支结余情况,进而又对影响养老保险收支的因素进行了政策模拟分析,为健全养老保险制度,提高养老保险支付能力,提供重要参考。测算结果发现:第一,二孩政策下我国总人口将在2029年达到峰值14.44亿人,之后开始下降,老年抚养比则持续攀升;第二,二孩政策对我国养老保险收支的影响具有一定的时滞性,并且目前政策效果仍不足以有效缓解未来养老保险的支付压力;第三,二孩政策后实施延迟退休政策(领取养老金的年龄)将有效改善养老保险的收支情况;第四,提升参保人员缴费率和计发系数,保证基金收益率也将有效缓解现行养老保险制度下的财务压力;第五,经济健康发展是保障养老保险可持续性的最基础力量。因此,应建立完善的养老保险保障体系,保证经济发展水平,同时鼓励人们生育二孩,多政策配合实施,保障我国养老保险长期可持续性发展。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years or so, China has implemented a strict family planning policy that has led to a decline in the number of births, while economic development has increased the average life expectancy. The old-age dependency ratio increased from 9.5 in 1996 to 14.3 in 2015, and the deterioration of the population structure will put great pressure on the basic old-age insurance system. In order to relieve the pressure of supporting the aged, the family planning policy of our country has changed greatly: from one child to "single two children", and then to the all-around second child. At the same time, in order to benefit all urban and rural residents, the combination of new rural old-age insurance and urban old-age insurance has become an important part of the old-age insurance system in China. Therefore, under the dual background of the reform of the old-age insurance system and the change of the birth policy, can the pressure of the old-age security system in our country be effectively alleviated? At the same time, how to perfect the pension insurance system of urban and rural residents to adapt to the reality of our country has become a new research topic. In this paper, a population forecasting model, an actuarial model of fund income and expenditure are established by combining the relevant knowledge of statistics, actuarial science and demography, etc. This paper calculates the balance of income and expenditure of China's endowment insurance (including urban and rural workers' pension insurance and urban and rural residents' old-age insurance), and then carries out a policy simulation analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of pension insurance, in order to improve the pension insurance system. Raise endowment insurance pay ability, provide important reference. The results show that: first, under the two-child policy, the total population of China will reach a peak of 1.444 billion in 2029, then it will begin to decline, and the old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise; second, The effect of the two-child policy on the income and expenditure of China's old-age insurance has a certain delay, and the current policy effect is still insufficient to effectively alleviate the payment pressure of the future pension insurance; third, The implementation of the deferred retirement policy after the two-child policy (the age at which the pension is received) will effectively improve the income and expenditure of the old-age insurance. Fourth, the contribution rate and the payout coefficient of the insured personnel will be increased. Ensuring the return rate of funds will also effectively alleviate the financial pressure under the current pension insurance system; fifthly, healthy economic development is the most basic force to ensure the sustainability of pension insurance. Therefore, we should establish a perfect pension insurance system to ensure the level of economic development, encourage people to give birth to two children, and implement more policies to ensure the long-term sustainable development of China's old-age insurance.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67
本文编号：2248694
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years or so, China has implemented a strict family planning policy that has led to a decline in the number of births, while economic development has increased the average life expectancy. The old-age dependency ratio increased from 9.5 in 1996 to 14.3 in 2015, and the deterioration of the population structure will put great pressure on the basic old-age insurance system. In order to relieve the pressure of supporting the aged, the family planning policy of our country has changed greatly: from one child to "single two children", and then to the all-around second child. At the same time, in order to benefit all urban and rural residents, the combination of new rural old-age insurance and urban old-age insurance has become an important part of the old-age insurance system in China. Therefore, under the dual background of the reform of the old-age insurance system and the change of the birth policy, can the pressure of the old-age security system in our country be effectively alleviated? At the same time, how to perfect the pension insurance system of urban and rural residents to adapt to the reality of our country has become a new research topic. In this paper, a population forecasting model, an actuarial model of fund income and expenditure are established by combining the relevant knowledge of statistics, actuarial science and demography, etc. This paper calculates the balance of income and expenditure of China's endowment insurance (including urban and rural workers' pension insurance and urban and rural residents' old-age insurance), and then carries out a policy simulation analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of pension insurance, in order to improve the pension insurance system. Raise endowment insurance pay ability, provide important reference. The results show that: first, under the two-child policy, the total population of China will reach a peak of 1.444 billion in 2029, then it will begin to decline, and the old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise; second, The effect of the two-child policy on the income and expenditure of China's old-age insurance has a certain delay, and the current policy effect is still insufficient to effectively alleviate the payment pressure of the future pension insurance; third, The implementation of the deferred retirement policy after the two-child policy (the age at which the pension is received) will effectively improve the income and expenditure of the old-age insurance. Fourth, the contribution rate and the payout coefficient of the insured personnel will be increased. Ensuring the return rate of funds will also effectively alleviate the financial pressure under the current pension insurance system; fifthly, healthy economic development is the most basic force to ensure the sustainability of pension insurance. Therefore, we should establish a perfect pension insurance system to ensure the level of economic development, encourage people to give birth to two children, and implement more policies to ensure the long-term sustainable development of China's old-age insurance.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67
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