人口老龄化趋势下福建省新型农村社会养老保险研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 17:51

【摘要】：新中国成立以来,中国人口老龄化的速度不断加快,而农村地区老龄人口所占的比重更是大于城市,所以其人口老龄化问题尤其严重。但在现实生活中,中国社会保障制度的中心一直在城市,至于广大农村的老年人养老则始终主要依靠家庭养老模式,这对农村养老保障体系建设提出了巨大的挑战。由于在旧的农村养老保险制度下,其保障水平相对低下,往往难以真正地发挥其应有的保障作用。在此背景下,新型的农村社会养老保险制度开始建立和实施。早在2009-2010年间,福建省通过选择10%的县(市、区)作为试点,开展养老保险试验,随后于2012年全省基本上实现了新农保的全覆盖。本文研究的主要目的在于结合当前福建省农村人口老龄化日益严重的形势,探索新型农村养老保险制度的建立和完善。文章的主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:其一,文章运用文献分析法阐述新型农村养老保险的概念、基本功能及相关的理论依据(即收入再分配理论和政府父爱主义理论);其二,对福建省人口老龄化的现状进行了定性分析,并从时序资料和截面资料入手,通过建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对福建省农村老年人口进行定量预测,从中分析福建省农村人口老龄化的现状及其今后的发展趋势,并由此明确了人口老龄化对新型农村社会养老保险的影响情况;其三,文章运用规范分析法阐述中国农业保险制度的历史沿革和发展现状,并采用比较分析法阐释新旧农保的不同之处及新农保在资金筹集、养老金待遇和制度可持续性等方面的优越性;其四,文章依据最新的人口普查和相关的统计资料,采用定量分析法,经分析指出在当前人口老龄化的趋势下,福建省的新型养老保险存在着养老金待遇低、保障水平弱,集体补贴未能有效落实,农保基金征、管分开,基金保值、增值效果不佳,基金管理层次低和缺乏专业人才等问题;其五,采用因素分析法,从制度、人口、经济、文化、法律等五个方面展开分析,并得出制约福建省新型农村社会养老保险发展的主要因素,同时还通过回归预测模型,对福建省财政对养老保险的支持能力进行定量分析;其六,文章结合上述五个主要影响因素,提出解决福建省人口老龄化趋势下完善新型农村社会养老保险的对策,即应完善新农保基金管理运营机制、建立健全新农保监管体制、加大政府的财政投入力度、调整养老金的待遇水平、提高农民的参保意识和加快新型农村养老保险相关立法,等等。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the aging of the population in China has been accelerating, and the proportion of the aged population in rural areas is larger than that in the cities, so the aging problem of the population is especially serious. But in real life, the center of China's social security system has been in the city, as for the majority of rural elderly pension is always dependent on the family pension model, which has put forward a huge challenge to the construction of rural old-age security system. Under the old rural old-age insurance system, its security level is relatively low, it is often difficult to really play its due protection role. In this context, the new rural social endowment insurance system began to establish and implement. As early as 2009-2010, Fujian Province selected 10% of counties (cities and districts) as the pilot to carry out pension insurance trial, and then in 2012, the province basically realized the full coverage of new rural insurance. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the establishment and perfection of the new rural old-age insurance system according to the situation of the aging of the rural population in Fujian Province. The main research contents of this paper include the following aspects: firstly, the paper uses the literature analysis method to expound the concept of new rural old-age insurance. The basic function and related theoretical basis (i.e. income redistribution theory and government patriarchal theory); secondly, the qualitative analysis of the current situation of population aging in Fujian Province, and starting with time series data and cross-section data, Through the establishment of grey prediction GM (1 / 1) model, this paper makes a quantitative prediction of the rural elderly population in Fujian Province, and analyzes the present situation of the aging of the rural population in Fujian Province and its future development trend. From this, the influence of the aging population on the new rural social endowment insurance is clarified. Thirdly, the article uses the normative analysis method to explain the historical evolution and development status of the agricultural insurance system in China. Using comparative analysis to explain the differences between the old and the new rural insurance, and the advantages of the new rural insurance in the aspects of fund raising, pension treatment and system sustainability. Fourth, the article based on the latest population census and related statistical data, Using the quantitative analysis method, it is pointed out that under the current trend of aging population, the new pension insurance in Fujian Province has low pension treatment, weak security level, the collective subsidy cannot be effectively implemented, the rural insurance fund is collected, and the management is separated. The fund maintains value, increases the value effect is not good, the fund management level is low and lacks the specialized personnel and so on; fifthly, uses the factor analysis method, from the system, the population, the economy, the culture, the law and so on five aspects carries on the analysis, The main factors restricting the development of new rural social endowment insurance in Fujian Province are obtained. At the same time, through regression prediction model, the financial support ability of Fujian Province to endowment insurance is quantitatively analyzed. Combined with the above five main influencing factors, the paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the new rural social endowment insurance under the trend of population aging in Fujian Province, that is, to perfect the management and operation mechanism of the new rural insurance fund, and to establish and perfect the supervision system of the new rural insurance. Increase the government's financial input, adjust the level of pension treatment, improve farmers' awareness of participating in the insurance and speed up the new rural old-age insurance related legislation, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F323.89;F842.67

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