我国养老保险的财务可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 15:10

【摘要】：在人口老龄化压力下,世界各国的公共养老金大多面临可持续发展的挑战,从而纷纷实施各种改革,以帮助恢复系统的财务偿付能力。在我国,从2011年7月开始实施的《社会保险法》对社会保险制度提出财务可持续发展的要求,但实践中并没有建立起相应的财务风险管理系统,相关的理论研究比较缺乏。本文在讨论社会养老保险财务可持续性的内涵和度量方法的基础上,通过建立精算评估模型,对我国社会养老保险的未来收支和长期精算平衡进行了测算分析。结果表明,如果不对现行制度实施改革,制度在未来的发展中将会面临支付赤字。建立多层次养老金体系,并采取提高退休年龄和调整待遇等改革措施,将会有效缓解制度的财务压力,有助于制度的财务可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Under the pressure of aging population, most public pensions in the world are facing the challenge of sustainable development, so they have implemented various reforms to help restore the financial solvency of the system. In our country, the Social Insurance Law, which has been implemented since July 2011, puts forward the requirement of sustainable financial development for the social insurance system, but in practice there is no corresponding financial risk management system, and the relevant theoretical research is relatively lacking. On the basis of discussing the connotation and measurement method of the financial sustainability of social pension insurance, this paper estimates and analyzes the future income and expenditure and long-term actuarial balance of social pension insurance in China by establishing an actuarial evaluation model. The results show that if the current system is not reformed, the system will face payment deficit in the future. The establishment of a multi-level pension system and the adoption of reform measures such as raising the retirement age and adjusting the treatment will effectively relieve the financial pressure of the system and contribute to the financial sustainable development of the system.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心;中国人民大学统计学院;山东财经大学统计学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(10JJD790037) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA910008) 国家自然科学基金项目(71173230)的资助
【分类号】：F842.6

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