中国保险业的经济外部性实证研究

发布时间：2018-12-06 12:45

【摘要】：摘要：外部性研究是经济学研究中的一个长盛不衰的热点问题。近年来兴起的金融领域的外部性研究,为揭示现代金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系提供了可靠的实证方法。保险业作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分,经济外溢效应显著,对其溢出机制和溢出绩效的实证研究是国内外研究的重点之一。尤其是中国保险业,其在发展过程中展现出了旺盛的生命力和显著的外部性效果,因此,对中国保险业的经济外部性进行系统实证研究具有重要的理论意义与现实价值。本文首先对中国保险业的发展状况进行全面分析与评价,通过对保险业与经济增长的关联性实证来检验保险业的经济外部性效果。在此基础上,从产业功能的视角对中国保险业的经济外部性产生原理进行解析,并分别基于Feder两部门模型和预防性储蓄理论拓展模型对外溢路径和溢出渠道进行研究,构建起中国保险业的经济外部性溢出机制模型。在理论分析的基础上,通过对全国24个省市地区进行广泛的问卷调查获得大量原始数据,详细的调研数据分析和Logit二元离散模型实证检验显现了现阶段中国保险业的经济外部性溢出特征。随后,本文运用2003年～2012年全国31个省市地区的面板数据,在对Feder两部门模型进行理论拓展的基础上,采用两部门Panel Data模型对中国保险业的生产外部性进行实证研究,结果表明,保险能显著影响非保险部门的产出,中国保险业的生产外溢效应系数为0.1142。通过引入保险消费这一影响因素,构建基于预防性储蓄理论的VAR拓展模型,运用1980年～2010年间的年度时序数据对中国保险业的消费外部性进行实证研究,结果显示,保险能有效促进消费和收入的增长,在长期内保险消费对社会消费的促进作用稳定在5%的水平。基于以上研究,本文得出如下主要结论： (1)中国保险业的经济外部性根源于经济补偿、资金融通和社会管理三大产业功能,在此基础上衍生出共享资源、优化配置、提升效率、推动创新、扩大投资、深化金融、促进消费、扩大内需、管控风险、提升素质、和谐社会等一系列经济外溢效应。 (2)调研实证显示,中国保险业的经济外部性溢出渠道主要有规模经济溢出、投资溢出、消费溢出、技术溢出、知识溢出与人力溢出等数种。 (3)基于两部门Panel Data模型的实证表明,保险作为一种重要的生产要素投入,会显著影响非保险部门的产出进而促进经济增长。经测算,对非保险部门每增加1%的保险要素投入,会产生国民经济增长0.1142%的保险生产外溢效应。 (4)基于预防性储蓄理论的VAR拓展模型实证显示,保险通过降低个体未来的经济不确定性,可有效释放全社会的预防性储蓄,提升储蓄向投资转化的效率,保险消费的增加,短期内会带来社会边际消费倾向同比增加0.09,长期内对社会消费的促进作用稳定在5%的水平。本文的创新之处在于：(1)首次构建了较为完整的中国保险业的经济外部性作用体系,在金融领域的外部性理论研究方面有所拓展； (2)对中国保险业的经济外部性进行广泛问卷调研,并运用Logit二元离散模型进行实证检验,展现了中国保险业的经济外部性特征； (3)对Feder两部门模型和预防性储蓄理论进行了相应地理论拓展与创新,并在此基础上分别构建两部门Panel Data模型和VAR模型对中国保险业的生产与消费外部性进行实证研究。
[Abstract]:Abstract: Externality is a hot issue in the study of economics. In recent years, the research of the externality in the financial field has provided a reliable and positive method for revealing the causal relationship between the development of modern finance and economic growth. As an important part of the modern financial system, the insurance industry is an important part of the modern financial system, and the empirical research on the overflow mechanism and the overflow performance of the insurance industry is one of the key points of the research at home and abroad. In particular, China's insurance industry has shown strong vitality and significant externality in the process of development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical value to carry out a systematic and empirical study on the economic externality of the insurance industry in China. In this paper, the development of the insurance industry in China is analyzed and evaluated, and the economic externality effect of the insurance industry is verified by the correlation between the insurance industry and the economic growth. Based on this, the paper analyzes the principle of the economic externality of China's insurance industry from the perspective of industrial function, and makes a research on the spillover and overflow channel based on the two-sector model of the Federation and the model of preventive saving. Research and Construction of the Mechanism of Economic Externality of China's Insurance Industry Based on the theoretical analysis, a large number of raw data is obtained through a wide survey of 24 provinces and cities throughout the country. The detailed investigation data analysis and the analysis of the Logit binary discrete model show the economic externality of the insurance industry in China at present. Then, using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in the country from 2003 to 2012, based on the theoretical development of the two-sector model of the Federation, the two-sector Panel Data model is used to make an empirical study on the production externalities of the insurance industry in China. The results show that the insurance can significantly affect the output of the non-insurance sector, and the production spillover effect factor of China's insurance industry is 0.1. 142. By introducing the influence factor of the insurance consumption, the VAR expansion model based on the preventive saving theory is constructed, and the consumption externality of the insurance industry in China is studied by using the annual timing data between 1980 and 2010, and the result shows that the insurance can effectively promote consumption and income The growth of the long-term insurance consumption on social consumption is stable at 5% Based on the above research, this paper concludes that The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is rooted in the function of economic compensation, financing and social management. Efficiency, promoting innovation, expanding investment, deepening finance, promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, controlling risk, improving quality, and building a harmonious society (2) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is mainly characterized by the economic overflow, the overflow of investment, the overflow of the consumption, the overflow of technology, the overflow of knowledge, and the spillover effect of the economic externalities of the Chinese insurance industry. (3) Based on the two-sector Panel Data model, insurance is an important input of production factors, which can significantly affect the non-insurance sector. The output of the non-insurance sector, in turn, contributes to the growth of the economy. It is estimated that an increase of 1% of the insurance elements in the non-insurance sector will result in an increase of 0.114 in the national economy 2% of the insurance production spillover effect. (4) Based on the empirical analysis of the VAR model of the preventive saving theory, the insurance can effectively release the preventive saving of the whole society by reducing the economic uncertainty of the individual's future, and improve the saving-to-investment The efficiency of conversion, the increase of insurance consumption, the social marginal consumption tendency in the short term will increase by 0.09, and the social consumption in the long term The innovation of this paper is that: (1) It is the first time to construct a more complete system of economic externalities of China's insurance industry. The external theory of the domain has been expanded; (2) for China The economic externalities of the insurance industry conduct a wide-ranging questionnaire survey and use the Logit binary discrete model to carry out the empirical test. The paper presents the economic externality of the insurance industry in China, and (3) the model and the pre-processing of the two parts of the Federation. In this paper, the theoretical development and innovation of the anti-sexual saving theory are carried out, and the two-sector Panel Data model and the VAR model pair are built on the basis of the theory.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842;F224

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