基于模糊层次评价法的我国保险投资风险评价研究
发布时间：2019-02-21 17:41
【摘要】：美国著名银行专家保罗·希尔曾经说过：“投资是保险行业的核心业务,没有投资便没有保险业。”在经济多元化的今天,保险业早已成为集融资、补偿、风险管理为一身的综合性金融体系。以承保业务为主营业务的时代早已过去,现在的保险行业只有发展壮大投资业务才能立足。而能否进行投资方式的优化就成为影响保险公司收益的主要因素,如何在单位投资资金内增加收益,如何管理控制风险成为当今热点研究问题。目前,我国保险业整体发展缓慢原因有二：一是投资环境管理混乱；二是保险公司自身风险管理水平较低。我国《保险法》颁布之前,保险公司片面追求利润率,导致盲目跟风投资,非但没为企业带来盈利,反而带来巨大亏损和不良资产。《保险法》的出台限制了企业的投资范围和投资渠道,尤其是对无风险投资组合做了明确规定。随着我国投资市场的逐步规范、相关机制的逐步健全,保险监管者必然采取拓宽资金渠道、丰富投资组合方式的政策。放松投资管制后,投资风险管理能力将成为决定保险业企业总体收益与竞争力的关键因素。 以往大多数针对保险投资的研究着眼于证券投资组合优化等,而对于投资企业(或者项目)的风险评价研究较少。至今为止,并没有权威和统一的保险投资风险评价体系和规范。因此,本文结合保险业实际投资的特点,结合投资风险评价的目标,在系统全面性和可操作性的指导原则下,设计出保险投资风险评价指标体系,体系共包括4个Ⅰ级指标,12个Ⅱ级指标,以及41个Ⅲ级指标。在设计保险投资的风险评价指标体系的基础上,根据模糊层次方法(FAHP),结合德尔菲法和专家打分法,得出模糊判断互补矩阵,进而确定出保险投资风险评价Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ级指标的权重大小,并确定出风险评价的隶属度,最终建立起基于FAHP保险投资风险评价模型。本文为了验证投资风险评价指标体系以及风险评价模型的有效性,选择X保险集团对H纺织公司的投资作为对象,结合H公司的企业基本情况和财务数据,确定出投资风险等级评价的结果以及关键风险所在。
[Abstract]:Paul Hill, a prominent U.S. banking expert, once said: "Investment is the core business of the insurance industry. Without investment, there is no insurance industry." In today's diversified economy, the insurance industry has become a comprehensive financial system with financing, compensation and risk management. The era of underwriting business as the main business has long passed, now the insurance industry can only be based on the development of investment business. Whether the investment mode can be optimized becomes the main factor that affects the income of insurance company. How to increase the income in the unit investment fund and how to manage and control the risk has become a hot research issue. At present, there are two reasons for the slow development of the insurance industry in our country: one is the confusion of the investment environment management, the other is the low level of risk management of the insurance companies themselves. Before the promulgation of our country's Insurance Law, insurance companies pursued profit margins one-sidedly, resulting in blindly following the trend of investment, not only did they not bring profits to enterprises, On the contrary, it brings huge losses and bad assets. The introduction of "Insurance Law" limits the investment scope and investment channels of enterprises, especially for the risk-free investment portfolio. With the gradual standardization of China's investment market and the gradual improvement of relevant mechanisms, insurance regulators must adopt the policy of widening the capital channels and enriching the investment portfolio. After deregulation of investment, investment risk management ability will become the key factor to determine the overall income and competitiveness of insurance enterprises. In the past, most of the research on insurance investment focused on portfolio optimization, but less on risk evaluation of investment enterprises (or projects). So far, there is no authoritative and unified insurance investment risk evaluation system and norms. Therefore, according to the characteristics of insurance industry investment and the target of investment risk evaluation, under the guiding principle of system comprehensiveness and maneuverability, an index system of insurance investment risk evaluation is designed. There were 12 grade 鈪，
本文编号：2427735
[Abstract]:Paul Hill, a prominent U.S. banking expert, once said: "Investment is the core business of the insurance industry. Without investment, there is no insurance industry." In today's diversified economy, the insurance industry has become a comprehensive financial system with financing, compensation and risk management. The era of underwriting business as the main business has long passed, now the insurance industry can only be based on the development of investment business. Whether the investment mode can be optimized becomes the main factor that affects the income of insurance company. How to increase the income in the unit investment fund and how to manage and control the risk has become a hot research issue. At present, there are two reasons for the slow development of the insurance industry in our country: one is the confusion of the investment environment management, the other is the low level of risk management of the insurance companies themselves. Before the promulgation of our country's Insurance Law, insurance companies pursued profit margins one-sidedly, resulting in blindly following the trend of investment, not only did they not bring profits to enterprises, On the contrary, it brings huge losses and bad assets. The introduction of "Insurance Law" limits the investment scope and investment channels of enterprises, especially for the risk-free investment portfolio. With the gradual standardization of China's investment market and the gradual improvement of relevant mechanisms, insurance regulators must adopt the policy of widening the capital channels and enriching the investment portfolio. After deregulation of investment, investment risk management ability will become the key factor to determine the overall income and competitiveness of insurance enterprises. In the past, most of the research on insurance investment focused on portfolio optimization, but less on risk evaluation of investment enterprises (or projects). So far, there is no authoritative and unified insurance investment risk evaluation system and norms. Therefore, according to the characteristics of insurance industry investment and the target of investment risk evaluation, under the guiding principle of system comprehensiveness and maneuverability, an index system of insurance investment risk evaluation is designed. There were 12 grade 鈪，
本文编号：2427735
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