环境污染责任保险市场中企业决策行为及其影响因素的研究
发布时间：2019-06-26 13:27
【摘要】：企业生产活动的外部不经济性使得企业盲目追求经济效益，疏忽环境风险管理，导致环境污染事故的发生。利用环境污染责任保险政策解决环境污染事故纠纷已成为事故预防和损害赔付的重要手段。企业的投保积极性对该政策的实施效果有着直接的决定性作用，而企业的投保积极性可以体现为企业在环境污染责任保险市场中的决策行为。根据最大效用原理，在风险和不确定条件下，企业以获得最大期望效用值做为决策行为准则。 本文运用复杂系统理论分析了环境污染责任保险市场的复杂性，采用基于主体的建模仿真方法（agent-based modeling and simulation，下文简称ABMS），选取了政府对企业发生环境污染事故的罚款力度、保险公司的保险费率和企业环境风险评估服务水平以及周边企业的辐射效应等四个指标，模拟了环境污染责任保险市场中企业决策行为在外部环境影响因素作用下的动态变化。得到主要结论，如下： （1）政府对企业发生环境污染事故的罚款力度是影响企业决策行为的因素之一。 具体表现为：政府对企业发生环境污染事故的罚款力度越大，进行环境污染责任保险决策的企业越少，而选择加强环境风险管理措施的企业越多；在政府的罚款金额为3000万元时，环境污染责任保险市场的参保率约为罚款金额为300万元时的三分之一，有将近90%的企业选择了加强环境风险管理措施。 （2）保险公司的保险费率水平是影响企业决策行为的因素之一。 具体表现为：在2.5%的初始费率基础上，提高保险费率至3%时，，环境污染责任保险市场参保率约为10%，比初始状态时减少了20%；提高保险费率至3.5%时，环境污染责任保险市场参保率约为2.3%，不到初始状态时的十分之一；下调保险费率至2%时，环境污染责任保险市场参保率比初始状态时增加了一倍，约为60%；当保险费率下调至1.5%时，环境污染责任保险市场参保率约为80%；当保险费率下调至1%时，环境污染责任保险市场的参保率将近90%；当保险费率下调至0.5%时，环境污染责任保险市场接近饱和，参保率将近97%，比初始状态时增加了3倍多。 （3）保险公司的环境风险评估服务水平是影响企业决策行为的因素之一。 具体表现在两方面：一是降低了企业发生环境污染事故的概率，二是减少了企业环境风险管理的成本。企业发生环境污染事故的概率从0.0035次/年逐步降至0.00035次/年，环境污染责任保险市场的参保率呈直线上升的趋势；企业环境风险控制成本从1.5~10万元逐步减少至0.15~1万元时，环境污染责任保险市场的参保率曲线呈对数曲线上升的趋势。 （4）周边企业的辐射效应是影响企业决策行为的因素之一。 具体表现为：随着时间的推移，在企业间辐射效应作用之下，环境污染责任保险市场的参保率逐年递增，第一年达到52%，将近初始状态时的两倍，第二年达到82.3%，直到第七年市场达到饱和，参保率为100%。 （5）在外部因素的综合作用下，即对参保企业实行以环境风险等级为基础的差别费率，同时提高保险公司为企业提供的环境风险评估服务水平，能够提高企业投保积极性，拉动环境污染责任保险需求，并降低区域内企业总体的环境风险控制成本。
[Abstract]:The external uneconomical efficiency of the enterprise's production activities makes the enterprise blindly pursue the economic benefit and neglect the environmental risk management, leading to the occurrence of environmental pollution accident. The environmental pollution liability insurance policy to solve the environmental pollution accident dispute has become an important means of accident prevention and damage compensation. The enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance has a direct and decisive effect on the effect of the policy, and the enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance can be reflected in the decision-making behavior of the enterprise in the market of environmental pollution liability insurance. According to the principle of maximum utility, under the condition of risk and uncertainty, the enterprise obtains the maximum expected utility value as the decision-making code of conduct. In this paper, the complex system theory is used to analyze the complexity of the environmental pollution liability insurance market, and based on the agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS), the fine force of the government to the environmental pollution accident of the enterprise is selected. The four indexes such as the insurance rate of the insurance company, the service level of the enterprise's environmental risk assessment and the radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises are simulated, and the dynamic change of the enterprise decision-making behavior under the influence of the external environment is simulated. To obtain the main conclusions, such as Under the following circumstances: (1) The government's fine to the enterprise's environmental pollution accident is the cause of the decision-making of the enterprise One of the elements is: the greater the government's fine to the enterprise environment pollution accident, the less the enterprise that carries out the environmental pollution liability insurance decision, and the more enterprises that choose to strengthen the environmental risk management measures; the fine of the government is 30 When the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about one-third of the fine amount, nearly 90% of the enterprises have chosen to strengthen the environment wind. risk management measures. (2) Insurance rate level of insurance company is the influence of enterprise decision-making One of the factors of the behavior is: on the basis of the initial rate of 2.5%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 10% when the insurance rate is increased to 3%,20% less than in the initial state, and when the insurance rate is increased to 3.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The enrollment rate is about 2.3%, less than one-tenth of the initial state, and when the rate of insurance is down to 2%, the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is doubled in the initial state, about 60%, and when the insurance rate is down to 1.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 80%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 1%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is nearly 90%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 0.5%, the market of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is close to the saturation, and the enrollment rate is nearly 97%, which is lower than the initial 3 times increase in the status of the insurance company. (3) The service level of the environmental risk assessment of the insurance company is affected One of the factors of the enterprise decision-making behavior is to reduce the probability of environmental pollution accident in the enterprise, and the second is to reduce the risk. The cost of enterprise environmental risk management is reduced. The probability of enterprise environmental pollution accident is reduced from 0.0035 times/ year to 0.00035 times/ year, and the coverage rate of environmental pollution liability insurance market is in a straight line. The cost of enterprise's environmental risk control is from 1.5 to 100,000 yuan. The coverage of the environmental pollution liability insurance market when the step is reduced to 0.15 to 10,000 yuan The trend of the rising of the logarithmic curve of the rate curve. (4) The radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises It should be one of the factors that affect the decision-making behavior of the enterprise, which is as follows: with the lapse of time, under the effect of the inter-enterprise radiation effect, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is increasing year by year, reaching 52% in the first year, twice the initial state, and the second year 82.3% up to In the seven-year market, the market is saturated and the enrollment rate is 100%. (5) Under the comprehensive effect of external factors, the difference rate based on the environmental risk level is applied to the insured enterprise, and the service level of the environmental risk assessment provided by the insurance company for the enterprise can be improved, and the enterprise can be improved The enthusiasm of insurance insurance and the demand of environmental pollution liability insurance are pulled.
【学位授予单位】：苏州科技学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.69;X322
本文编号：2506216
[Abstract]:The external uneconomical efficiency of the enterprise's production activities makes the enterprise blindly pursue the economic benefit and neglect the environmental risk management, leading to the occurrence of environmental pollution accident. The environmental pollution liability insurance policy to solve the environmental pollution accident dispute has become an important means of accident prevention and damage compensation. The enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance has a direct and decisive effect on the effect of the policy, and the enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance can be reflected in the decision-making behavior of the enterprise in the market of environmental pollution liability insurance. According to the principle of maximum utility, under the condition of risk and uncertainty, the enterprise obtains the maximum expected utility value as the decision-making code of conduct. In this paper, the complex system theory is used to analyze the complexity of the environmental pollution liability insurance market, and based on the agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS), the fine force of the government to the environmental pollution accident of the enterprise is selected. The four indexes such as the insurance rate of the insurance company, the service level of the enterprise's environmental risk assessment and the radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises are simulated, and the dynamic change of the enterprise decision-making behavior under the influence of the external environment is simulated. To obtain the main conclusions, such as Under the following circumstances: (1) The government's fine to the enterprise's environmental pollution accident is the cause of the decision-making of the enterprise One of the elements is: the greater the government's fine to the enterprise environment pollution accident, the less the enterprise that carries out the environmental pollution liability insurance decision, and the more enterprises that choose to strengthen the environmental risk management measures; the fine of the government is 30 When the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about one-third of the fine amount, nearly 90% of the enterprises have chosen to strengthen the environment wind. risk management measures. (2) Insurance rate level of insurance company is the influence of enterprise decision-making One of the factors of the behavior is: on the basis of the initial rate of 2.5%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 10% when the insurance rate is increased to 3%,20% less than in the initial state, and when the insurance rate is increased to 3.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The enrollment rate is about 2.3%, less than one-tenth of the initial state, and when the rate of insurance is down to 2%, the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is doubled in the initial state, about 60%, and when the insurance rate is down to 1.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 80%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 1%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is nearly 90%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 0.5%, the market of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is close to the saturation, and the enrollment rate is nearly 97%, which is lower than the initial 3 times increase in the status of the insurance company. (3) The service level of the environmental risk assessment of the insurance company is affected One of the factors of the enterprise decision-making behavior is to reduce the probability of environmental pollution accident in the enterprise, and the second is to reduce the risk. The cost of enterprise environmental risk management is reduced. The probability of enterprise environmental pollution accident is reduced from 0.0035 times/ year to 0.00035 times/ year, and the coverage rate of environmental pollution liability insurance market is in a straight line. The cost of enterprise's environmental risk control is from 1.5 to 100,000 yuan. The coverage of the environmental pollution liability insurance market when the step is reduced to 0.15 to 10,000 yuan The trend of the rising of the logarithmic curve of the rate curve. (4) The radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises It should be one of the factors that affect the decision-making behavior of the enterprise, which is as follows: with the lapse of time, under the effect of the inter-enterprise radiation effect, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is increasing year by year, reaching 52% in the first year, twice the initial state, and the second year 82.3% up to In the seven-year market, the market is saturated and the enrollment rate is 100%. (5) Under the comprehensive effect of external factors, the difference rate based on the environmental risk level is applied to the insured enterprise, and the service level of the environmental risk assessment provided by the insurance company for the enterprise can be improved, and the enterprise can be improved The enthusiasm of insurance insurance and the demand of environmental pollution liability insurance are pulled.
【学位授予单位】：苏州科技学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.69;X322
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相关期刊论文 前2条
1 莫蔚彬;吴唤群;;基于Agent的房地产经济模型Swarm平台仿真研究——以广州为例[J];全国商情(经济理论研究);2009年01期
2 谢霖铨;谭光霞;;企业决策过程中影响因素的主成分分析[J];统计与决策;2007年11期
本文编号：2506216
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