实物期权方法在房地产投资决策中的应用

发布时间：2018-04-21 18:12

本文选题：房地产投资项目 + 传统投资评价法　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产行业目前是我国经济的支柱产业,对我国经济的发展有着重要的作用。房地产开发项目有占用资金大、开发周期长、行业受政策影响较大等特点,运用科学合理的评价方法对房地产投资项目进行评价决策十分必要。传统的项目投资评价方法在对房地产投资项目进行评价时,有着巨大的缺陷。传统投资评价方法静态地考虑一期投资项目单独的现金流,而不考虑开发项目对企业可能带来的战略价值。房地产行业有着很大的不确定性,在面对这些不确定性时需要管理者灵活应对。而这些不确定性和管理柔性、灵活性就带来的开发项目的实物期权价值。实物期权方法也考虑到了开发项目对后续项目价值的影响。总之,实物期权方法相对于传统评价方法的优点是考虑到了不确定性带来的机会、管理柔性和灵活性的价值,和对企业战略发展的意义。本文首先介绍了传统项目投资评价方法和实物期权项目投资评价理论和方法,并对两种不同的评价方法进行了对比。在运用实物期权评价方法时,本文考虑了目前房地产市场存在的泡沫,将泡沫因素加入到了实物期权评价法的考量当中,得到了泡沫修正后的实物期权评价模型。在第五章本文结合笔者在房地产咨询行业的世界五大行之一——戴德梁行(DTZ)房地产咨询公司做过的项目,进行了实证案例分析。通过利用传统投资评价方法、实物期权评价方法和泡沫修正后的实物期权评价方法三种方法,分别对投资项目的价值进行计算；并运用敏感性分析方法,对实物期权模型的五大主要因素进行敏感性分析。利用传统投资评价法的净现值法,得出一期项目和二期项目的现金流和净现值；利用增长实物期权的评价方法则测算开发项目的扩展价值,扩展价值中包含开发项目的增长实物期权价值；然后利用泡沫修正后的实物期权定价模型对开发项目的价值进行计算,得到了去除泡沫后项目的扩展价值。最终对三种评价方法和结果进行比较和分析。分析结果表明,实物期权方法更能够体现不确定性给项目带来的机会,管理者的柔性管理和灵活性管理带来的价值,投资项目对企业的战略价值。而泡沫修正后的期权价值模型,能去除泡沫因素带来的虚假繁荣,给过热的房地产市场合理地降温,使计算出的投资项目价值更加科学合理,接近实际。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country's economy. It plays an important role in the economic development of our country. The real estate development project has the characteristics of large capital, long development cycle and great influence on the policy. It is very necessary to use scientific and reasonable evaluation method to evaluate the investment items of real estate.
The traditional project investment evaluation method has a huge defect when evaluating the real estate investment project. The traditional investment evaluation method is static considering the separate cash flow of an investment project, without considering the strategic value that the development project may bring to the enterprise. The real estate industry has a great uncertainty in the face of these indeterminacy. It is necessary for managers to respond flexibly. While these uncertainties and management flexibility, flexibility brings the real option value of development projects. Real options approach also takes into account the impact of development projects on the value of subsequent projects. In a word, the advantages of real options approach to the traditional evaluation method are brought into consideration with uncertainty. The opportunity, the value of management flexibility and flexibility, and the significance to the development of enterprise strategy.
This article first introduces the traditional project investment evaluation method and the real option project investment evaluation theory and method, and compares the two different evaluation methods. In the use of real option evaluation method, this paper considers the existing bubble in the real estate market, and adds the bubble factor to the real option evaluation method. In the fifth chapter, an empirical case analysis is carried out in the fifth chapter of the real estate consulting company, one of the five largest banks in the world's real estate consulting industry, the ddliang (DTZ) real estate consulting company. Through the use of the traditional investment evaluation method, the real option evaluation method and the bubble correction Three methods are used to evaluate the value of the investment projects, and the sensitivity analysis method is used to analyze the sensitivity of the five major factors of the real option model. The net present value of the traditional investment evaluation method is used to obtain the cash flow and net present value of the first and two projects; The evaluation method of real option estimates the expansion value of the development project, and the value of the real options is included in the expansion value. Then the value of the development project is calculated with the modified real option pricing model after the bubble correction, and the expansion value of the project after the removal of the bubble is obtained. Finally, the three evaluation methods and the conclusion are made. Results are compared and analyzed. The results show that real option method can reflect the opportunities that uncertainty brings to the project, the value brought by flexible management and flexibility management, and the strategic value of investment projects to the enterprise. The rational cooling of the hot real estate market makes the calculated value of the investment project more scientific and reasonable, and is close to reality.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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