中国服务业全要素生产率测算及鲍莫尔“成本

发布时间：2017-12-27 13:19

本文关键词：中国服务业全要素生产率测算及鲍莫尔“成本病”检验　出处：《山西师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在面对国内外复杂的经济形势下,我国进入稳增长、调结构、惠民生的新常态时期,甚至有学者指出,我国在2016年将要或甚至正在面临“刘易斯拐点”。在国家“十三五”规划中明确提出,实现现代化服务关键要把握产业经济转型,而经济转型升级主要在于形成以服务业为主体的产业结构。服务业经过30年的高速发展,2012年增加值总额首次超过第二产业(1),但是增长的背后原因是什么?增长质量又如何?增长动力来源于资本、劳动等要素的投入还是全要素生产率的提高?我国服务业是否真的存在鲍莫尔“成本病”?十八届五中全会也明确提出要转变依靠物资资源消耗为依靠劳动生产率的提高,通过提高TFP来促进经济增长是必经之路。所以研究服务业以及服务业各细分行业TFP及其分解的异质性,并检验鲍莫尔“成本病”是理论和现实的需要。本文旨在已有的研究基础上,借助计量经济学方法,考察中国服务业及其分行业TFP增长及差异情况,寻找服务业TFP增长的源泉,检验是否存在鲍莫尔“成本病”。本文首先通过与第一产业和第二产业对比,从投入规模和产出规模分析我国服务业发展现状及问题,并对服务业细分行业的发展现状和问题进行描述性分析;其次采用数据包络(DEA)的Malmquist指数法,收集1993-2014年第三次经济普查后的面板数据,对1993-2002及2004-2014年我国服务业及其细分行业全要素生产率进行全面、客观的测算,同时进行稳健性检验,分析了我国服务业及其细分行业的TFP增长率及其分解的特征;最后在测算的TFP基础上,通过与工业全要素生产率进行对比,检验鲍莫尔“成本病”。本文的创新点在于采用数据包络(DEA)的Malmquist指数法,对服务业三大细分行业TFP及其分解进行测算对比,考察其异质性,扩展了数据,并以此为依托检验了鲍莫尔“成本病”。最终得出对于服务业发展滞后的我国,存在鲍莫尔“成本病”,增长额背后动力来源于资本、劳动等要素的投入,而不是全要素生产率的提高。从时间趋势看,服务业TFP增长率呈现下降趋势,甚至出现负增长。从TFP分解来看,增长主要依靠技术进步,技术效率较低,仍有挖掘资源和技术的潜力。服务业各细分行业TFP增长表现出较大的行业异质性,生产性服务业的TFP下降得最快,但增长率仍大于消费性服务业,差距在逐渐缩小;消费性TFP也呈现下降趋势,行业的TFP异质性最大;公共服务业TFP不降反升,TFP异质性最小。根据实证结果,本文从加强经营管理和监督力度,充分利用行业异质性特点,加快发展生产性服务业等方面提出促进服务业更高质量发展的措施。
[Abstract]:In the face of complex economic situation at home and abroad, China has entered a new normal period of steady growth, restructuring and people's livelihood. Even some scholars have pointed out that China will face or even face Lewis turning point in 2016. Clearly stated in the national "13th Five-Year" plan, to realize the modernization of the key to grasping the service industry and economic transformation, economic transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure mainly lies in the formation of service industry as the main body. The service industry after 30 years of rapid development, a total of more than second of industrial added value in 2012 for the first time (1), but what is the reason behind the increase of the quality of growth? How? Growth momentum comes into capital, labor and other factors or total factor productivity? Ballmer has "cost disease" is our service in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also clearly put forward to change? Rely on material resource consumption on the improvement of labor productivity by improving the TFP to promote economic growth is the only way which must be passed. Therefore, it is a theoretical and practical need to study the heterogeneity of TFP and its decomposition in service industry and service industry, and to test Baumol's "cost disease". The purpose of this paper is to research on the existing basis, using econometric methods, study China service industry and TFP growth and the difference of industry, the source of TFP in service industry growth, test the existence of Ballmer "cost disease". Firstly, with the first and second industry comparison, from the investment scale and the scale analysis of the current situation and problems of China's service industry development, descriptive analysis of current situation and problems of the development of service industry; secondly, using data envelopment (DEA) of the Malmquist index method, the panel data collected 1993-2014 years of the third economic census the comprehensive and objective measure of total factor productivity of 1993-2002 and 2004-2014 years of China's service industry and industry segments, and robustness test, analysis of China's service industry and its sub industry TFP growth and its decomposition characteristics; finally based on TFP estimates, compared with the industrial total factor productivity inspection, Baumol "cost disease". The innovation of this paper is using the Malmquist index method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate and compare the TFP and its decomposition of the three major sectors of the service industry, to investigate the heterogeneity and expand the data, and to test Baumol's "cost disease" based on this. Eventually come to China for the development of service industry lags behind, there are Ballmer "cost disease", increase the amount of investment in the power source behind capital, labor and other factors, rather than total factor productivity. In terms of the trend of time, the growth rate of TFP in service industry is declining, even negative growth. From the point of view of TFP decomposition, the growth depends mainly on technological progress, low technical efficiency, and the potential of mining resources and technology. The subdivision of service industry TFP growth showed a greater difference of industry, producer services TFP decreased quickly, but the growth rate is still higher than the consumer services, gradually narrowing the gap in consumption; TFP also showed a downward trend in the industry heterogeneity of TFP; public service industry TFP not fall TFP, minimum heterogeneity. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward measures to promote the development of producer services in higher quality by strengthening management and supervision, making full use of the heterogeneity of industries and accelerating the development of producer services.
【学位授予单位】：山西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F719

【相似文献】