鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策效应研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 23:31

本文关键词： 现代服务业政策效应空间统计溢出性　出处：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国市场经济的逐步转型，产业结构大幅度改革并逐步升级完善，现代服务业发展的深入研究对区域经济增长及空间集聚效应演变的作用十分显著。在当前学术界，对现代服务业的空间集聚效应的相关研究成果很多，但针对一个地区的现代服务业发展政策效应的相关研究尚不多见，对现代服务业发展政策效应的系统分析，并将空间相关性这一影响因素融入一个地区的政策效应体系的相关研究文献更不多见。本论文的研究目的和研究任务是基于当前中国现代服务业发展现状和发展愿景的基础上，构建较为完整的现代服务业政策体系，以江西省鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业为研究对象，通过政策理论分析与实证研究相结合探究鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业空间集聚特征与当地政策效应的内在机理。论文主要研究内容分五大部分，第一部分包括绪论和现代服务业的相关内涵、分类和范围界定及现代服务业发展政策相关理论分析。根据鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业当前发展状况，论文第二部分将做系统概括分析，通过描述性方法对鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业当前的规模水平做出评价，根据鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展的基础条件阐述该地区的现代服务业发展对整个经济体制发展改革完善的贡献与效果。第三部分是对鄱阳湖生态经济区的现代服务业发展政策进行效应测度，通过常用效应测度方法的比较，选用超效率DEA方法对鄱阳湖生态经济区的现代服务业进行实证分析，具体测算2005-2010年鄱阳湖生态经济区31个县市的现代服务业发展政策的效应值，得出结论：鄱阳湖生态经济区的政策效应并没有随着时间的推移有所改良，，对当地的现代服务业发展的影响效果不显著。通过模型测算的该地区各县市的效应值比较可以发现政策效应的空间聚集特征显著，这一结论表明鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策效应具有溢出效应，该地区的现代服务业发展存在空间相关性，通过空间相关性角度考察鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策效应具有实践价值。第四部分根据鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展特征分别从内在因素和外在因素两个方面选取该地区现代服务业发展政策的衡量指标，通过GeoDa软件计算鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策的Moran's I值并描绘其政策效应值散点图，提出鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策效应的空间相关性显著的特征。据此，通过构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型，选取政策质量因素、政策民主化因素、体制因素和认识因素等指标作为模型的解释变量，将鄱阳湖生态经济区各县市的现代服务业发展政策效应作为被解释变量，对该地区现代服务业发展政策效应影响因素的空间自相关性进行检验，模型检验结果表明鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业政策体系中的体制因素和政策质量因素对当地的现代服务业发展具有显著的促进作用，而认识因素（即对现代服务业发展的重视程度）需要时间的积累，将在未来发展期间有一定的助推能力。第五部分是根据三、四部分中现代服务业发展政策效应测算及溢出性特征测度结果而得出的相关结论，并为提升鄱阳湖生态经济区现代服务业发展政策效应提出实践性建议，包括三个方面：一、提升政策质量，权衡各方利益。主要根据现代服务业发展特征，结合政策质量因素和政策民主化因素等相关模型指标对政策效应的影响程度所提出的政策建议。二、科学改革政策体制，重视市场资源配置。基于鄱阳湖生态经济区经济结构的调整，产业结构的转型及模型变量体制因素对该地区政策效应的综合影响考虑，提出对当地政策体制的改革必要性，重视服务业的人力资源对市场建设的影响，政策对信息服务业重点扶持具有长远价值。三、明确现代服务业发展前景，重视现代服务业发展的贡献。根据模型变量认识因素对现代服务业发展政策效应的影响效果表明，当地政府对现代服务业的重视程度不高，对服务业内部结构认知不够，提倡政府重视现代服务业与第一、二产业的紧密结合，提升通信、金融和物流等现代服务业对其他产业的支撑力度，重视现代服务业发展对当地经济发展的长远利益。
[Abstract]:With the gradual transformation of China market economy, industrial structure greatly reform and gradually upgrade, in-depth study of the development of modern service industry on regional economic growth and spatial agglomeration evolution is very significant. In the current academic circles, many related research achievements of the modern service industry agglomeration effect of space, but the research for a the development of modern service industry policy is still rare, systematic analysis of the development of modern service industry policy effect, and will see more relevant research documents the impact of spatial correlation factors into a system of regional policy effect. The purpose of this research and the research task is based on the current development of Chinese the modern service industry present situation and the development of vision on the construction of modern service industry policy system more complete, to the modern service of Jiangxi province Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Industry The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial mechanism of the modern service industry in Poyang Lake eco economic zone and the internal mechanism of the local policy effect through the combination of policy analysis and empirical research.
The main content of this thesis is divided into five parts. The first part includes the introduction and the connotation of the modern service industry, the relevant theoretical analysis and define the scope and classification of policies for the development of modern service industry. According to the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the current state of development, the second part will do system analysis, through the descriptive methods of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake the level of modern service industry and the current scale of evaluation, according to the basic conditions of modern service industry development in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the area of the development of modern service industry contribution to the development of the whole economic system reform and perfect effect. The third part is the policy for the development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone of modern service industry by comparing the effect of measure, measure common effect, using super efficiency DEA method on the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry demonstration Analysis of effect of the development of policy of 31 counties in 2005-2010 years to calculate the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry value, draw the conclusion: the policy effect of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake over time did not improve effect on the local development of modern service industry is not significant. Compared the policy effect of spatial aggregation characteristics the model estimates the significant effect of cities and counties of the value, the conclusion indicates that the effect of policies for the development of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has a spillover effect, the area of modern service industry development in the spatial correlation, the spatial correlation of the perspective effect of modern service industry development policy of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has practical value.
The fourth part according to the measure of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development features two aspects respectively from the internal and external factors from the area of modern service industry development policy, through the calculation of the GeoDa software development policy of modern service industry in the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake Moran's I and describe its policy effect value plot, spatial correlation characteristics the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone development policy effect significantly. Therefore, by constructing the spatial lag model and spatial error model, selection of quality policy factors, democratic policy factors, institutional factors and cognitive factors and other indicators as independent variables of the model, the effect of the development of the policy of each county Ecological Economic Zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry as explanatory variables, impact on the modern service industry in the region development policy effect factors of the spatial autocorrelation of inspection Test, test results show that the model has a significant role in promoting the development of modern service industry quality factors institutional factors of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone policy system and the policy of local, and understanding of the factors (the degree of attention to the development of modern service industry) need time to accumulate, there will be a boost capacity in the future during the period of development.
The fifth part is based on the three, the related conclusion effect of modern service industry development policy in the four part the estimates and the overflow of characteristic measurement findings, and to enhance the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development policy effect put forward some practical suggestions, including three aspects: first, enhance the quality of policy, weigh the interests of all parties. According to the modern the development of service industry characteristics, the impact model index with the policy quality factors and policy factors on the democratization of policy effect policy recommendations. Two, scientific reform policy system, pay attention to market allocation of resources. The economic structure adjustment of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Based on the comprehensive consideration of influence of transformation and the variables of the model system of industrial structure the effects of policies in the region, put forward the reform necessity of local policies, pay attention to the service industry influence human resources market construction The policy of information service industry, the key support has long-term value. Three, clear prospects for the development of modern service industry, attaches great importance to the development of modern service industry contribution. According to the effect factors on the understanding of the variables of the model of modern service industry development policy, the local government attaches great importance to the modern service industry is not high, the lack of the internal structure of the service industry cognition, closely, advocate the government attaches great importance to the modern service industry and the first, second industry to enhance communication, financial support and logistics and other modern service industry to other industries, pay attention to the development of modern service industry in the development of the local economy's long-term interests.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719;F224

【参考文献】