我国31个省现代服务业发展潜力的水平特征及分布动态

发布时间：2018-02-22 03:10

本文关键词： 服务业潜力 TOPSIS Kernel密度估计分布动态　出处：《深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为有助于探讨十二五期间我国现代服务业的发展潜力问题,构建现代服务业发展潜力评价指标体系,为建设现代化服务业提供重要政策参考,通过综合利用加权主成分TOPSIS法、Kernel密度估计和马尔科夫链等研究方法,对中国31个省份的现代服务业发展潜力及分布动态时序特征进行研究。分析结果显示,中部地区在十二五规划期间,现代服务业发展潜力变化最为明显,其他地区省份的现代服务业发展潜力水平均呈现出较为稳定的状态;其次,发展潜力级别较低的省份往往具有后发优势,并呈现出显著的现代服务业发展潜力增长的趋同现象;再者,我国的现代服务业潜力水平呈现空间聚集于分散特性,但潜力水平较低时,趋近于空间聚集,反之,为空间扩散。
[Abstract]:In order to discuss the development potential of modern service industry in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan, to construct the evaluation index system of the development potential of modern service industry, and to provide an important policy reference for the construction of modern service industry. By using weighted principal component TOPSIS method and Markov chain, the potential of modern service industry development and the dynamic temporal characteristics of service distribution in 31 provinces of China are studied. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the development potential of modern service industry in the central region changed most obviously, and the level of the development potential of modern service industry in other provinces showed a relatively stable state; secondly, The provinces with low level of development potential tend to have the advantage of latecomer, and show obvious convergence phenomenon of the growth of the development potential of modern service industry; moreover, the potential level of modern service industry in our country presents a spatial aggregation of decentralized characteristics. However, when the potential level is low, it approaches to spatial aggregation, otherwise, it is spatial diffusion.
【作者单位】：福州外语外贸学院财会系;福州外语外贸学院开放型经济与贸易研究中心;
【基金】：福建省社科规划项目“创意产业生态演化影响因素与路径选择研究”(2014C093) 国家社会科学基金规划项目“产业组织演进与未来国际文化产业发展新趋势研究”(2012BJL033)
【分类号】：F719

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