南京市养老服务设施空间分布格局及可达性评价——基于时间成本的两步移动搜索法

发布时间：2018-04-18 00:38

本文选题：养老服务设施 + 核密度估计　；参考：《现代城市研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：精确地评价养老服务设施空间的可达性是进行养老服务设施资源合理配置的前提。近年来,在"十二五规划"的大背景下,南京市养老服务设施发展迅速,然而快速的人口老龄化现象致使养老服务设施的供给依旧不能满足老年人口对养老服务设施的需求。本文运用Arc GIS中的核密度估计方法,在对养老服务设施空间分布特征研究的基础之上,采用OD成本矩阵计算了人口重心到养老设施的出行时间,据此采用两步移动搜索法测算了南京市养老服务设施的空间可达性,重点对1h单一有效服务阈值和按养老服务设施规模划分的三级有效服务阈值两种情况下的可达性进行比较分析。结果显示:(1)南京市养老服务设施总体分布呈现中心凝聚—外围分散的特征;空间热点分布呈现蔓延扩散和非均衡扩散混合模式,出现"跨江发展"和"郊县发展"的空间形态。(2)不同性质类型养老服务设施空间布局模式存在很大差异,公办公营养老服务设施呈现"多核心"布局模式,公办民营呈现"双核心"模式,民办民营呈现"单核心"模式,敬老院呈现"均匀式"布局态势。(3)南京市养老服务设施可达性呈现中心城区可达床位数由东南向西北方向递减,主城区北高南低,郊区南高北低的分布格局,1h单一有效服务阈值评价南京市养老服务设施空间可达性更为合理。
[Abstract]:It is the premise of reasonable allocation of endowment service facilities to evaluate precisely the accessibility of endowment service facilities.In recent years, under the background of "the 12th Five-Year Plan", the old-age service facilities in Nanjing have developed rapidly. However, the rapid aging of the population causes the supply of the old-age service facilities can not meet the needs of the elderly population for the old-age service facilities.In this paper, the kernel density estimation method in Arc GIS is used to calculate the travel time from population center of gravity to pension facilities based on the study of spatial distribution characteristics of pension service facilities, and the OD cost matrix is used to calculate the travel time between population center of gravity and pension facilities.Based on this, the spatial accessibility of pension service facilities in Nanjing is calculated by using the two-step mobile search method.This paper focuses on the comparison and analysis of the reachability under the single effective service threshold of 1h and the three-level effective service threshold according to the scale of the old-age service facilities.The results show that the overall distribution of old-age service facilities in Nanjing presents the characteristics of central agglomeration and peripheral dispersion, and the spatial hot spot distribution shows a mixed pattern of spread, diffusion and non-equilibrium diffusion.The spatial pattern of "cross-river development" and "suburban county development" appears. (2) there are great differences in the spatial layout pattern of pension service facilities of different nature types, and the public public pension service facilities present a "multi-core" layout pattern.The "double core" mode is presented by the public private sector, the "single core" pattern is presented by the private private sector, and the "uniform" layout situation is presented by the elderly home.) the accessibility of the old-age service facilities in Nanjing is decreasing from the southeast to the northwest, and the number of accessible beds in the central urban area is decreasing from the southeast to the northwest.It is more reasonable to evaluate the spatial accessibility of old-age service facilities in Nanjing by a single effective service threshold of 1 h in the distribution pattern of north high and south low in the main urban area and in the south of the suburb.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：江苏省高校哲学社会科学重大基金项目(111040A1111) 国家自然科学基金项目(41371518) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(地理学)
【分类号】：D669.6;F719

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