我国第三产业发展对劳动力需求预测
发布时间：2018-08-17 08:56
【摘要】：十八大报告提出全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标，在我国已跨入上中等收入国家行列和工业化中期偏后阶段，要转变过去粗放型的经济增长方式，使经济增长更多地依靠技术进步和创新来实现。近年来，随着我国生产要素成本不断上升，外需逐步收缩，国内产能出现过剩，国内需求结构正在发生变化，以及资源和生态环境状况难以支撑现有产业结构等现象的发生，产业结构升级压力加大，还面临发达国家和贫困国家的双重竞争压力，一方面在那些技术变化较快的产业领域很难同作为创新者的发达国家竞争，另一方面在传统成熟产业与作为竞争对手的低工资水平的贫困国家也丧失了比较优势，增长动力不足，面临“中等收入陷阱”的挑战；而随着产业结构的升级，，我国又出现了高增长与低就业并存、就业难与用工荒并存的就业领域的怪象。解决这些问题的关键在于第三产业，从经济发展的历史来看，第三产业有着重要的地位：第三产业是国民经济循环系统的重要环节，与第一产业和第二产业相互制约、相互促进；第三产业是国民经济的重要组成部分，能够促进国民经济进一步发展和容纳较多的就业人员；第三产业还是国民经济的导向系统，对国民经济的发展带有明显导向性。可见，大力发展第三产业是优化我国经济发展方式、提升第三产业在国民经济中的比重、缓解就业结构性矛盾、实现产业结构高级化的重要途径，符合我国基本国情和发展阶段性新特征。 产业结构优化升级的表现形式之一是产业高级化，第三产业比重升高是产业高级化的重要体现。我国第三产业产值比重在一个低水平保持稳定，自2001年以来一直在40%左右徘徊。我国要进行生产发展方式的转变，第三产业必将大力发展。根据第三产业发展的国际经验，随着经济的不断发展，第三产业的比重将不断上升，并占据主导地位，第三产业发展呈现了多元化的路线，向服务经济转型不一定必然是在工业化过程完成以后。随着分工专业化程度的加深，工业部门对服务活动的中间需求不断增加，直接促进了第三产业进入快速发展阶段。按照过去的发展方式，1978年到2011年间我国第三产业产值比重增长速度年均达到10.9%，高于同时期国内生产总值9.9%的增长率，即将形成第三产业打头的产业格局。而因为其发展基础低等原因，我国第三产业发展滞后于工业化发展的要求，总量依然不足，还存在内部结构不合理，现代服务业发展明显不够的现象。 结合我国和发达国家第三产业发展历程，我国第三产业处于快速发展阶段，因此建立基于罗吉斯缔（Logistic）曲线的我国第三产业发展模型，并根据模型预测到2030年各主要年份我国第三产业产值比重。第三产业产值比重不断提高，对劳动力要求会逐渐提高；第三产业相比第一、二产业较强的吸纳能力，要求劳动力数量增多；现代服务业发展则要求劳动力层次不断提升。通过第三产业劳动力对第三产业产值比重影响的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验，验证两者之间存在长期稳定的关系，故采用时间序列数据建立两变量之间的回归模型，并运用前面预测的第三产业产值比重测算到2030年各主要年份需求的劳动力。由第六次全国人口普查数据可知，我国劳动力总量规模大，自然供给将在2015年左右达到峰值，受教育程度层次提升和劳动力平均受教育年限增加。沿用已有研究对劳动力供给趋势预测数据，与第三产业发展对劳动力的需求对比发现，我国劳动力将出现缺口，并且缺口逐渐增大。 因此，面对劳动力供给不足，劳动力的供给与需求不相匹配，劳动力配置缺乏市场调节和劳动力流动困难等问题，提高劳动力的平均受教育年限，提升劳动力的受教育层次，完善劳动力市场，以及引导劳动力合理流动优化配置是盘活现有劳动力存量的主要方向。
[Abstract]:The report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC sets forth the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries and the post-middle stage of industrialization. We should change the extensive economic growth pattern in the past and make economic growth more dependent on technological progress and innovation. There is a gradual contraction of external demand, a surplus of domestic production capacity, changes in the domestic demand structure, and difficulties in supporting the existing industrial structure in terms of resources and ecological environment. The pressure for upgrading the industrial structure is increasing, as well as the dual competitive pressures of developed and poor countries. On the one hand, there are industries with rapid technological changes. It is difficult to compete with developed countries as innovators in the field. On the other hand, poor countries with low wages and traditional mature industries have also lost their comparative advantages and lack of growth momentum, facing the challenge of the "middle-income trap"; with the upgrading of industrial structure, China has witnessed high growth and low employment. The key to solving these problems lies in the tertiary industry. From the history of economic development, the tertiary industry has an important position: the tertiary industry is an important part of the national economic cycle system, and it restricts and promotes each other with the primary industry and the secondary industry; the tertiary industry is An important part of the national economy can promote the further development of the national economy and accommodate more employees; the tertiary industry is still the guiding system of the national economy, which has a clear guidance for the development of the national economy. The proportion, the important way to alleviate the structural contradiction of employment and realize the advanced industrial structure conforms to the basic national conditions and the new characteristics of the development stage.
One of the manifestations of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the advanced industry, and the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry is an important embodiment of the advanced industry. According to the international experience of the development of the tertiary industry, with the continuous development of the economy, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise and occupy a dominant position. The development of the tertiary industry shows a diversified line. The transition to a service economy is not necessarily after the completion of the industrialization process. According to the past development mode, the annual growth rate of the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in China reached 10.9% from 1978 to 2011, which was higher than the 9.9% growth rate of the GDP of the same period. The industrial pattern of the tertiary industry will soon be formed. For the reasons of its low development foundation, the development of China's tertiary industry lags behind the requirements of industrialization, the total amount is still insufficient, the internal structure is unreasonable, and the development of modern service industry is obviously insufficient.
Combined with the development process of tertiary industry in China and developed countries, the tertiary industry in China is in a rapid development stage. Therefore, a development model of tertiary industry in China based on Logistic curve is established. According to the model, the proportion of output value of tertiary industry in each major year in 2030 is predicted. Compared with the first industry, the second industry has a strong absorptive capacity, which requires an increase in the number of labor. The development of modern service industry requires a continuous improvement in the level of labor. Therefore, the regression model between the two variables is established by using time series data, and the proportion of tertiary industry output value forecasted is used to calculate the labor demand in each major year of 2030. According to the sixth national census data, the total labor force in China is large, and the natural supply will reach its peak around 2015. Based on the forecasting data of labor supply trend and the demand of labor force for the development of tertiary industry, it is found that there will be a gap in China's labor force, and the gap will gradually increase.
Therefore, in the face of the shortage of labor supply, the mismatch between labor supply and demand, the lack of market regulation and the difficulty of labor mobility in the allocation of labor force, it is necessary to revitalize the existing problems by increasing the average length of education of the labor force, raising the level of education of the labor force, improving the labor market, and guiding the rational flow and optimal allocation of labor force. The main direction of labor stock.
【学位授予单位】：中南民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.21;F719
本文编号：2187113
[Abstract]:The report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC sets forth the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries and the post-middle stage of industrialization. We should change the extensive economic growth pattern in the past and make economic growth more dependent on technological progress and innovation. There is a gradual contraction of external demand, a surplus of domestic production capacity, changes in the domestic demand structure, and difficulties in supporting the existing industrial structure in terms of resources and ecological environment. The pressure for upgrading the industrial structure is increasing, as well as the dual competitive pressures of developed and poor countries. On the one hand, there are industries with rapid technological changes. It is difficult to compete with developed countries as innovators in the field. On the other hand, poor countries with low wages and traditional mature industries have also lost their comparative advantages and lack of growth momentum, facing the challenge of the "middle-income trap"; with the upgrading of industrial structure, China has witnessed high growth and low employment. The key to solving these problems lies in the tertiary industry. From the history of economic development, the tertiary industry has an important position: the tertiary industry is an important part of the national economic cycle system, and it restricts and promotes each other with the primary industry and the secondary industry; the tertiary industry is An important part of the national economy can promote the further development of the national economy and accommodate more employees; the tertiary industry is still the guiding system of the national economy, which has a clear guidance for the development of the national economy. The proportion, the important way to alleviate the structural contradiction of employment and realize the advanced industrial structure conforms to the basic national conditions and the new characteristics of the development stage.
One of the manifestations of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the advanced industry, and the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry is an important embodiment of the advanced industry. According to the international experience of the development of the tertiary industry, with the continuous development of the economy, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise and occupy a dominant position. The development of the tertiary industry shows a diversified line. The transition to a service economy is not necessarily after the completion of the industrialization process. According to the past development mode, the annual growth rate of the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in China reached 10.9% from 1978 to 2011, which was higher than the 9.9% growth rate of the GDP of the same period. The industrial pattern of the tertiary industry will soon be formed. For the reasons of its low development foundation, the development of China's tertiary industry lags behind the requirements of industrialization, the total amount is still insufficient, the internal structure is unreasonable, and the development of modern service industry is obviously insufficient.
Combined with the development process of tertiary industry in China and developed countries, the tertiary industry in China is in a rapid development stage. Therefore, a development model of tertiary industry in China based on Logistic curve is established. According to the model, the proportion of output value of tertiary industry in each major year in 2030 is predicted. Compared with the first industry, the second industry has a strong absorptive capacity, which requires an increase in the number of labor. The development of modern service industry requires a continuous improvement in the level of labor. Therefore, the regression model between the two variables is established by using time series data, and the proportion of tertiary industry output value forecasted is used to calculate the labor demand in each major year of 2030. According to the sixth national census data, the total labor force in China is large, and the natural supply will reach its peak around 2015. Based on the forecasting data of labor supply trend and the demand of labor force for the development of tertiary industry, it is found that there will be a gap in China's labor force, and the gap will gradually increase.
Therefore, in the face of the shortage of labor supply, the mismatch between labor supply and demand, the lack of market regulation and the difficulty of labor mobility in the allocation of labor force, it is necessary to revitalize the existing problems by increasing the average length of education of the labor force, raising the level of education of the labor force, improving the labor market, and guiding the rational flow and optimal allocation of labor force. The main direction of labor stock.
【学位授予单位】：中南民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.21;F719
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