山东省城镇化与第三产业发展的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-11-19 14:30

【摘要】：城市经济理论的研究表明,城镇化的发生与发展是农业发展、工业化以及第三产业的崛起这三大力量的推动,并且随着城镇化进程的加深,这三大力量依次处于主导地位。城镇化是经济社会发展过程中的一个不以人的意志为转移的客观规律,也是产业结构优化与升级在地域空间上的必然反映。城镇化是一个国家或区域经济发展水平高低的标志。世界范围内经验表明,工业是城镇化发展的直接动因,到经济发展到一定阶段,第三产业将取代工业成为城镇化发展的主要推动力量。与此同时,城镇化也会对第三产业产生非常重要的影响,城镇化是第三产业发展的坚强基石,第三产业是城镇化的经济源泉和强大动力。山东省的城镇化水平目前正处于上升阶段,第三产业的发展步伐也正逐渐加快。因此,探明目前山东省城镇化和第三产业的发展状况,研究其城镇化和第三产业的互动关系,对于加快其城镇化步伐,优化第三产业结构,进而促进第三产业的快速健康发展都有十分重要的现实意义。本文基于城镇化和产业结构演进的互动关系理论,分析了城镇化和第三产业的相互作用关系,并对山东省的城镇化进程、第三产业发展进程和它们的发展状况进行了具体描述和分析。采用1981-2010年之间的相关数据,运用协整检验、回归分析和格兰杰检验等方法从时间角度研究城镇化和第三产业之间的互动关系,得出山东省城镇化与第三产业存在长期的稳定关系,并且具有显著地长期双向格兰杰因果关系；选取适当的时间截面,从空间的角度对山东省城镇化和第三产业的互动关系进行分析,得出其城镇化水平和第三产业产值比重呈同方向变动；运用灰关联分析方法研究城镇化和第三产业内部各层次之间的关系,具体分析山东省内部各地区的城镇化和第三产业的互动发展关系。最后为山东省城镇化和第三产业的互动发展提供具体的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The study of urban economic theory shows that the emergence and development of urbanization is promoted by the three forces of agricultural development, industrialization and the rise of the tertiary industry, and with the deepening of urbanization, these three forces are in the leading position in turn. Urbanization is an objective law in the process of economic and social development that does not shift with the will of human beings, and it is also an inevitable reflection of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the regional space. Urbanization is a symbol of the level of economic development of a country or region. The experience in the world shows that industry is the direct driving force of urbanization. To a certain stage, tertiary industry will replace industry as the main driving force of urbanization development. At the same time, urbanization will also have a very important impact on the tertiary industry. Urbanization is the strong foundation stone of the development of the tertiary industry, and the tertiary industry is the economic source and powerful driving force of urbanization. The level of urbanization in Shandong Province is now on the rise, and the pace of development of the tertiary industry is also gradually accelerating. Therefore, to find out the current development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, to study the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry, to accelerate the pace of urbanization and optimize the structure of tertiary industry, And then promote the rapid and healthy development of the tertiary industry has very important practical significance. Based on the interactive relation theory of urbanization and industrial structure evolution, this paper analyzes the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry, and analyzes the process of urbanization in Shandong Province. The development process of tertiary industry and their development status are described and analyzed in detail. By using the relevant data from 1981 to 2010, using cointegration test, regression analysis and Granger test, the paper studies the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry from the perspective of time. It is concluded that there is a long-term stable relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, and there is a significant long-term two-way Granger causality. From the perspective of space, this paper analyzes the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, and finds out that the urbanization level and the proportion of tertiary industry output value are changing in the same direction. The relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry is studied by using the method of grey correlation analysis, and the interactive development relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong province is analyzed in detail. Finally, it provides specific countermeasures and suggestions for the interactive development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719;F299.21

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