基于系统动力学的酒店类上市公司经营预测研究

发布时间：2018-12-06 14:38

【摘要】：现阶段，，我国旅游业发展依然强劲，在很大程度上促进酒店行业继续发展；同时，国家近年来鼓励并引导民间资本进入酒店等旅游经济领域，酒店行业资本的资本空前活跃，更多民间资本的进入定将带来酒店行业的繁荣；酒店类上市公司作为我国酒店行业的杰出代表，经过多年发展，已初具规模与影响力，成为证券市场上独具特色的板块。由此可见，深入研究酒店类上市公司这一独特的经济组织不仅十分必要，且具有显著的理论与现实意义。基于此，本文即以酒店类上市公司的经营活动为研究对象，针对其特殊性，引入系统动力学的理论与方法，进行了卓有成效的研究，主要研究成果包括以下两个方面：首先，构建起合理的酒店类上市公司经营系统动力学模型。在充分研究现有相关研究成果的基础上，并通过咨询酒店学术研究及实践专家，根据酒店经营管理活动的特点，构建起了较为全面、合理的酒店类上市公司经营系统动力学模型，模型由人力资源子系统、固定资产子系统、盈利能力子系统、偿债能力子系统、营运能力子系统与成长能力子系统构成，包括了酒店人力资源管理、固定资产管理及财务管理等主要经营管理内容。同时，总结出各子系统的关键影响变量，明确了变量之间的相互关系。引入系统动力学在一定程度上是酒店类上市公司研究领域的理论创新。其次，成功运用所建系统动力学模型实现了华天经营管理活动的预测。模型构建完成后，以华天为例，针对性地确定了模型中的常量、表函数等变量，即解决了模型应用于具体企业的适应性问题，为模型仿真奠定基础。然后运用Vensim软件模拟得到华天2011-2015年的仿真预测值，经检测，模型运行效果良好，仿真预测结果拟合度好，模拟结果可信度高，可通过相关具体变量的分析来判断公司未来的经营情况，为经营、信贷、投资等决策提供合理参考。实证分析结果表明，通过针对不同公司改变模型中的部分变量值，可实现对不同酒店类上市公司的经营预测，达到本研究的实践意义，既可以帮助经营管理者更好地决策以实现公司发展目标，也可为债权人、投资者、股民、政府等利益相关方的决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:At present, China's tourism industry is still strong, to a large extent, promoting the continued development of the hotel industry; At the same time, in recent years, the country encourages and guides the folk capital to enter the tourist economic domain such as the hotel, the capital of the hotel industry is unprecedented active, more folk capital will surely bring the prosperity of the hotel industry; As an outstanding representative of hotel industry in China, hotel listed companies have begun to take shape and influence after years of development, and have become a unique plate in the securities market. It can be seen that it is not only necessary to study the hotel listed company as a unique economic organization, but also has significant theoretical and practical significance. Based on this, this paper takes the management activities of hotel listed companies as the research object, aiming at its particularity, introduces the theory and method of system dynamics, and carries on the fruitful research. The main research results include the following two aspects: first, build a reasonable hotel listed company management system dynamics model. On the basis of fully studying the existing related research results, and consulting the hotel academic research and practice experts, according to the characteristics of hotel management activities, a more comprehensive construction, The model is composed of human resource subsystem, fixed assets subsystem, profitability subsystem, solvency subsystem, operating capacity subsystem and growth ability subsystem. Including hotel human resources management, fixed asset management and financial management and other main management content. At the same time, the key influence variables of each subsystem are summarized, and the relationship between the variables is clarified. The introduction of system dynamics is, to some extent, a theoretical innovation in the field of hotel listed companies. Secondly, the prediction of Huatian operation and management activity is realized by using the system dynamics model successfully. Taking Huatian as an example, the variables such as constants and table functions in the model are determined, that is, the adaptability of the model to a specific enterprise is solved, which lays a foundation for model simulation. Then the simulation results of Huatian 2011-2015 are obtained by using Vensim software. The test results show that the model runs well, the simulation results fit well, and the simulation results are reliable. Through the analysis of relevant specific variables, we can judge the company's future operating situation and provide reasonable reference for the decision of management, credit, investment and so on. The results of empirical analysis show that by changing some variables of the model for different companies, we can realize the management prediction of different hotel listed companies, and achieve the practical significance of this study. It can not only help managers to make better decisions to achieve the development goals of the company, but also provide reference for creditors, investors, shareholders, government and other stakeholders.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F719;N941.3

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