我国服务业景气监测预警研究

发布时间：2018-12-18 00:47

【摘要】：服务业景气监测预警，是对服务业进行总体的、综合的、全面的、系统的分析与判断，是对表征服务业经济活动过程和现状的一系列指标进行的监督和量测，从监测结果出发，根据过程规律性的认识，对服务业经济活动未来可能发生的转折和重大变化提出警报，是利用一系列经济指标建立起来的服务业“晴雨表”或“报警器”。它是运用理论分析方法、经验分析方法、数理统计方法等对服务业循环波动这一特定现象进行一整套经济监测、经济评价的体系。对服务业进行监测预警，可以清楚地发现服务业各层面发生的变化，洞悉服务业经济结构发生的转变，引导投资者理性投资，并有利于政府及时采取稳定政策促进服务业平稳、快速发展，因此在实践上意义重大。本文将景气指数、预警信号灯系统两者结合起来，在理论分析与实际应用相结合的基础上，阐述了景气指标的分类、选择、预处理方法。用时差相关分析法、峰谷对应方法并结合格兰杰因果关系检验综合分析划分了先行、一致、滞后三类景气指标，用因子分析法计算了每类指标中各单指标所占的权重大小后，介绍反映景气变动强弱的合成指数(CI)作用以及编制方法。然后建立预警指标体系，划分指标的临界值，用一组类似交通信号灯将每个时期内各预警指标所处状态表示出来，并用数学方法将单指标合成综合的预警指数。最后，本文以我国为例对服务业景气监测预警系统作了实证研究，对我国服务业景气进行综合判断与趋势判断。针对国际金融危机会对我国服务业发展的滞后影响，作者提出今后应在服务业的劳动力投入和资本投入、服务业职工素质和工资制度、居民可支配收入和服务消费增长等方面采取积极措施，促进我国服务业健康发展。
[Abstract]:The service industry boom monitoring and warning is an overall, comprehensive, comprehensive and systematic analysis and judgment of the service industry. It is the supervision and measurement of a series of indicators that characterize the process and current situation of economic activities in the service industry. Starting from the monitoring results, According to the understanding of the process regularity, it is a "barometer" or "alarm device" for the service industry to set up a barometer or an alarm for the possible turning point and major changes in the economic activities of the service industry in the future, which is based on a series of economic indicators. It is a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation system using theoretical analysis method, empirical analysis method, mathematical statistical method and so on, to carry on a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation to this particular phenomenon of service industry cycle fluctuation. Monitoring and early warning of the service industry can clearly find the changes that have taken place at all levels of the service industry, insight into the changes that have taken place in the economic structure of the service industry, guide investors to invest rationally, and help the government to adopt a stable policy in time to promote the stability of the service industry. Rapid development, so in practice is of great significance. Based on the combination of theory analysis and practical application, this paper expounds the classification, selection and pretreatment method of boom index. By means of time-difference correlation analysis, peak-valley correspondence method and Granger causality test, three types of boom indexes are classified: first, consistent and lagging, and the weight of each single index is calculated by factor analysis. This paper introduces the effect of composite index (CI), which reflects the strength of climate change, and the method of compiling it. Then the early warning index system is established, the critical value of the index is divided, the state of each early warning index in each period is expressed by a set of similar traffic signal lights, and the comprehensive early warning index is synthesized by mathematical method. Finally, this paper takes our country as an example to make an empirical study on the service industry boom monitoring and warning system, and makes a comprehensive judgment and trend judgment on the service industry boom in our country. In view of the lagging impact of the international financial crisis on the development of China's service industry, the author suggests that the labor and capital investment in the service industry, the quality of service workers and the wage system should be put forward in the future. Positive measures should be taken to promote the healthy development of service industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719;F224

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