中国服务业FDI空间溢出效应研究
发布时间：2019-01-15 20:37
【摘要】：近年来,中国服务业外商直接投资逐渐呈现超越制造业的发展势头,对于促进服务业总量增长及其结构优化的作用已是举足轻重。从而,服务业FDI的溢出效应日益引起学术界的广泛关注。由于经济体之间具有空间依赖(spatial dependence)特征,服务业FDI的溢出效应逐渐跨越地理边界而形成空间扩散现象。但是,现有成果主要聚焦于某一地区内的FDI溢出效应探讨,关于服务业FDI的空间溢出效应(spatial spillover effects)研究颇不多见。鉴于此,本文基于内生经济增长理论的研究框架,采用2003-2012年空间面板数据,构建了空间杜宾模型,并运用极大似然估计(ML)方法对中国服务业FDI的空间溢出效应进行了实证研究与检验。 具体而言,本文的研究可以展开为以下六个部分。第一章对本文的研究背景、意义以及思路进行阐述。第二章则回顾和整理与FDI空间溢出效应相关的国内外研究成果,并对此进行简要的述评。第三章探讨服务业外商直接投资空间溢出效应理论渊源及空间溢出的机理。第四章对我国服务业外商直接投资的空间分布状况进行分析。第五章首先构建以服务业人均产出增长率为被解释变量,以服务业FDI增长率、内资增长率、劳动力增长率作为解释变量,以本地因素作为控制变量的空间效应模型,并予以空间自相关检验以及空间效应模型设定检验,进而在此基础上进行极大似然回归估计与模型稳健性检验。第六章结合实证分析结果归纳本文研究结论,阐释相关启示与政策建议。 研究结果表明：首先,尽管我国的服务业FDI总量不断增加且已成为FDI的主体部分,但依旧存在区域分布失衡与各地区产业分布不合理的现象；其次,不含空间效应的实证分析结果表明,该模型并不能合理反映包括服务业FDI在内的各要素所产生的经济影响；最后,空间效应模型的估计结果显示：服务业外商直接投资存在显著的负向空间溢出效应,内资的功能则更多地体现在其对本地区经济的带动作用上。此外,服务业劳动力在量上的累积无益于本地与周边地区的生产能力提升。而本地因素也会对地区内与邻近地区服务业经济的增长产生影响。结合本文的理论以及实证分析结果,笔者提出几点政策建议：促进地区协调发展,减少地区之间恶性的引资竞争；推进东部地区产业升级与转移,从而带动外资的结构升级与区域转移；鼓励中部地区培养承接转移产业与服务业外资的吸收能力；加大西部地区的政策扶持及地区帮扶力度。
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's service industry has gradually surmounted the development momentum of manufacturing industry, and has played an important role in promoting the growth of total service industry and its structure optimization. As a result, the spillover effect of service FDI has attracted more and more attention from academic circles. Due to the spatial dependence of (spatial dependence) between economies, the spillover effects of FDI in service industry gradually cross geographical boundaries and form spatial diffusion phenomenon. However, the existing results mainly focus on the FDI spillover effects in a certain region, and there are few studies on the spatial spillover effect of FDI in the service industry (spatial spillover effects). In view of this, based on the research framework of endogenous economic growth theory, the spatial Doberbin model is constructed by using the spatial panel data from 2003 to 2012. The spatial spillover effect of Chinese service industry FDI is studied and tested by using the maximum likelihood estimation (ML) method. Specifically, this study can be carried out in the following six parts. The first chapter describes the research background, significance and ideas of this paper. The second chapter reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign research results related to FDI spatial spillover effects. Chapter three discusses the origin of spatial spillover effect of FDI in service industry and the mechanism of spatial spillover. The fourth chapter analyzes the spatial distribution of FDI in China's service industry. In the fifth chapter, we construct a spatial effect model with the per capita output growth rate of the service industry as the explained variable, the service industry FDI growth rate, the domestic capital growth rate and the labor growth rate as the explanatory variables, and the local factors as the controlling variables. Spatial autocorrelation test and spatial effect model setting test are given, and then maximum likelihood regression estimation and model robustness test are carried out. The sixth chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper with empirical analysis results, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, although the total FDI of service industry in China has been increasing and has become the main part of FDI, there still exists the phenomenon of imbalance of regional distribution and unreasonable distribution of industries in different regions; Secondly, the empirical results without spatial effects show that the model can not reasonably reflect the economic impact of various factors, including the service industry FDI. Finally, the estimation results of spatial effect model show that FDI in service industry has significant negative spatial spillover effect, while the function of domestic investment is more reflected in its driving effect on local economy. Moreover, the accumulation of labour in the service sector does not contribute to the growth of local and surrounding production capacity. Local factors will also have an impact on the growth of the service economy in and around the region. Combined with the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to promote the coordinated development of the region, reduce the vicious competition between regions; To promote industrial upgrading and transfer in the eastern region, so as to promote the structural upgrading and regional transfer of foreign capital; to encourage the central region to cultivate the ability to absorb foreign capital from the industry and service industries; and to increase policy support and regional support in the western region.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F719;F832.6
本文编号：2409081
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's service industry has gradually surmounted the development momentum of manufacturing industry, and has played an important role in promoting the growth of total service industry and its structure optimization. As a result, the spillover effect of service FDI has attracted more and more attention from academic circles. Due to the spatial dependence of (spatial dependence) between economies, the spillover effects of FDI in service industry gradually cross geographical boundaries and form spatial diffusion phenomenon. However, the existing results mainly focus on the FDI spillover effects in a certain region, and there are few studies on the spatial spillover effect of FDI in the service industry (spatial spillover effects). In view of this, based on the research framework of endogenous economic growth theory, the spatial Doberbin model is constructed by using the spatial panel data from 2003 to 2012. The spatial spillover effect of Chinese service industry FDI is studied and tested by using the maximum likelihood estimation (ML) method. Specifically, this study can be carried out in the following six parts. The first chapter describes the research background, significance and ideas of this paper. The second chapter reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign research results related to FDI spatial spillover effects. Chapter three discusses the origin of spatial spillover effect of FDI in service industry and the mechanism of spatial spillover. The fourth chapter analyzes the spatial distribution of FDI in China's service industry. In the fifth chapter, we construct a spatial effect model with the per capita output growth rate of the service industry as the explained variable, the service industry FDI growth rate, the domestic capital growth rate and the labor growth rate as the explanatory variables, and the local factors as the controlling variables. Spatial autocorrelation test and spatial effect model setting test are given, and then maximum likelihood regression estimation and model robustness test are carried out. The sixth chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper with empirical analysis results, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, although the total FDI of service industry in China has been increasing and has become the main part of FDI, there still exists the phenomenon of imbalance of regional distribution and unreasonable distribution of industries in different regions; Secondly, the empirical results without spatial effects show that the model can not reasonably reflect the economic impact of various factors, including the service industry FDI. Finally, the estimation results of spatial effect model show that FDI in service industry has significant negative spatial spillover effect, while the function of domestic investment is more reflected in its driving effect on local economy. Moreover, the accumulation of labour in the service sector does not contribute to the growth of local and surrounding production capacity. Local factors will also have an impact on the growth of the service economy in and around the region. Combined with the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to promote the coordinated development of the region, reduce the vicious competition between regions; To promote industrial upgrading and transfer in the eastern region, so as to promote the structural upgrading and regional transfer of foreign capital; to encourage the central region to cultivate the ability to absorb foreign capital from the industry and service industries; and to increase policy support and regional support in the western region.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F719;F832.6
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