中国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响分析

发布时间：2019-06-21 03:39

【摘要】：从中国加入WTO及实施“走出去”的战略后,中国对外直接投资(OFDI)迅速发展,“引进来”逐渐向“走出去”转变。在国内发展经济新常态和对外推行“一带一路”战略的环境下,服务业已成为我国经济发展的主要动力。近年来服务业发展势头迅猛,中国服务业OFDI的步伐逐渐加大,于此同时中国服务贸易出口总量增长迅速,备受瞩目。本文主要研究的问题为:(1)中国服务业OFDI增长是否促进了中国服务业出口的发展和国际竞争力的提高;(2)中国应该如何优化中国服务业OFDI,使它能更好促进中国服务贸易出口的发展。在理论研究方面,通过对以往文献的研究发现,对外直接投资与贸易的关系形成三种主要理论观点:替代关系,互补关系和没有长期确定的关系。论文研究发现中国服务业OFDI与服务贸易出口存在长期促进效应,且不同行业的作用不一样。在实证分析方面,本文通过格兰杰因果关系检验的方法分析中国服务业OFDI与服务贸易出口之间存在单向的因果关系,然后通过VAR模型脉冲响应函数分析及方差分解的方法,得出两者的相互影响的时间关系。接着从服务业细分行业的角度采用灰色关联度的分析方法,研究了中国服务业分行业对外直接投资对服务贸易出口的作用。最后在本文实证结论以后,提出了优化服务业OFDI结构和推动服务业贸易出口竞争力提升的建议。
[Abstract]:After China's entry into WTO and the implementation of the strategy of "going out", China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) has developed rapidly, and the "introduction" has gradually changed to "going out". Under the environment of the new normal of domestic economic development and the implementation of "Belt and Road Initiative" strategy, the service industry has become the main driving force of China's economic development. In recent years, the service industry has developed rapidly, and the pace of OFDI in China's service industry has gradually increased. At the same time, the total export of China's service trade has grown rapidly and attracted much attention. The main questions of this paper are as follows: (1) whether the growth of OFDI in China's service industry has promoted the development of China's service industry export and the improvement of international competitiveness; (2) how China should optimize China's service industry OFDI, so that it can better promote the development of China's service trade export. In the aspect of theoretical research, through the study of the previous literature, it is found that the relationship between foreign direct investment and trade forms three main theoretical viewpoints: substitution relationship, complementary relationship and no long-term definite relationship. It is found that OFDI of service industry and export of service trade in China have long-term promotion effect, and the role of different industries is different. In the aspect of empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the one-way causality between OFDI and service trade exports in China's service industry by Granger causality test, and then obtains the time relationship between the two by means of impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition of VAR model. Then, from the point of view of service industry subdivision, this paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment in service industry on the export of service trade by using the method of grey correlation degree analysis. Finally, after the empirical conclusion of this paper, this paper puts forward some suggestions to optimize the OFDI structure of service industry and promote the competitiveness of service trade export.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F752.68

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