医药行业估值驱动因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 18:55

本文选题：医药行业　切入点：市盈率　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：医药行业是关系到国计民生的战略性行业。近几年来,随着我国经济的增长和人口老龄化的到来,医药行业呈现迅猛的发展势头。截止至2013年我国医药行业销售收入达20593亿,十年间年均复合增长率为20.04%,远高于GDP增长。医药行业在国民经济中越来越占有重要地位。二级市场方面,截止至2014年3月,医药类上市公司已经达182家。2006年以来,医药行业指数累计上涨幅度超过646%,医药类上市公司越来越受到人们的关注。本文通过描述性统计、相关性分析、Stepwise Regression方法分析了影响医药行业市盈率的因素。研究发现,医药行业市盈率与医保基金支出、人口老龄化有显著的相关性,而与GDP增长率、通货膨胀率等因素相关性不大。说明医药行业需求驱动效应明显且与宏观经济弱相关性。在微观行业层面,本文构建了包括12个变量的多元线性回归模型,并通过Stepwise Regression方法选取一个解释力度最强的回归模型。研究发现医药行业市盈率受到净利润增长率、管理费用率、应收账款周转率、国家政策和换手率的显著影响。表明医药行业是显著的创新驱动型行业,同时对政策极其敏感。
[Abstract]:The pharmaceutical industry is a strategic industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. In recent years, with the growth of our economy and the arrival of the aging population, the pharmaceutical industry has shown a rapid development momentum. By 2013, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry in China has reached 2.0593 trillion. The average annual compound growth rate in the past decade is 20.04%, which is far higher than GDP growth. The pharmaceutical industry is playing an increasingly important role in the national economy. In the secondary market, as of March 2014, the number of pharmaceutical listed companies has reached 182. Since 2006, The cumulative increase of pharmaceutical industry index is more than 646%, and pharmaceutical listed companies are attracting more and more attention. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the P / E ratio of pharmaceutical industry through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and Stepwise Regression method. The P / E ratio of the pharmaceutical industry is significantly correlated with health insurance fund expenditure, population aging, and GDP growth. There is little correlation between inflation rate and other factors, which indicates that the demand-driven effect of pharmaceutical industry is obvious and weakly related to macro-economy. At the micro industry level, a multi-variable linear regression model is constructed, which includes 12 variables. Through the Stepwise Regression method, a regression model with the strongest explanation is selected. The results show that the P / E ratio of pharmaceutical industry is affected by net profit growth rate, management expense rate, account receivable turnover rate, and so on. The significant influence of national policy and turnover rate shows that the pharmaceutical industry is a significant innovation-driven industry and is extremely sensitive to policy.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.72

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