基于系统动力学的我国煤炭资源供需系统研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 22:17

本文选题：煤炭供给 + 煤炭需求　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国能源生产和消费一直以来以煤炭为主，煤炭的供需问题关系到我国经济发展社会进步等各各方面，是关系到我国经济命脉和国防安全的重要问题，，是社会可待续发展的重要基础随着改革开放的发展，我国经济和社会等领域发生了重多变化，能源领域也面临着诸多挑战科学的分析我国煤炭资源需求和供给及相关的影响因素，对于制定正确的能源发展计划，保障我国战略目标的实现，构建节约型社会和和谐社会都具有重要的意义本文在分析我国煤炭生产消费运输替代能源环境等因素的基础上，应用系统动力学的方法，结合经济学相关原理，对我国煤炭资源供需的相关问题进行了模拟和决策分析在国际市场影响下，中国煤炭资源供需中的影响因素有哪些，影响程度有多少，我国未来20年内，中国煤炭资源国内煤炭资源的供应量和需求量为多少，我国现在的政策在考虑环境国际能源市场能源保障等诸多问题的前提下如何改善等等，都是本文着重分析的问题本文的具体内容如下：煤炭是不可再生且非清洁资源，煤炭供需问题不仅仅局限于供需双方，也涉及到环境能源安全保障运输替代能源等多方面，且随着2009以来我国由一个煤炭净出口国变为煤炭净进口国，我国煤炭市场与国际煤炭市场相互影响程度逐渐加深运用系统动力学模型模拟我国煤炭资源供需系统，从而预测出我国煤炭在今后20年内的煤炭供应量和消费量，并进行敏感性分析，得出降低我国煤炭消费比例和降低我国煤炭消费强度都可以减少煤炭的消费量，其中降低煤炭消费强度比降低煤炭消费比例更有效果的结论，再以此对环境和国际市场的影响进行了模拟，结果表明，降低煤炭消费强度是更有效的缓解环境压力的举措，且无论是降低我国煤炭消费比例还是降低我国煤炭消费强度都可以扩大我国能源政策的调控空间，提高我国能源保障安全根据模型模拟和分析出的结果，借鉴国际发达国际的能源政策，本文得出能源政策意见建议：煤炭资源节能为先，建立能源储备战略，调整能源生产和消费结构，加强对环境问题关注，合理利用国际市场，加强宏观调控，规避不利因素，从而推动经济和社会的发展
[Abstract]:China ' s energy production and consumption have been mainly coal - based , the supply - demand of coal has been related to the economic development and social progress of our country , it is an important basis for the sustainable development of our country . With the development of reform and opening - up , China ' s economy and society have changed more and more .

Based on the analysis of the factors such as the alternative energy environment of coal production and consumption in China , this paper simulates and analyzes the related problems of the supply and demand of coal resources in China under the influence of international market .

The concrete contents of this paper are as follows :

Coal is a non - renewable and non - clean resource . The problem of coal supply and demand is not only limited to the supply and demand side , but also to the environment energy security and transportation alternative energy , and the impact of coal consumption intensity on the environment and international market can be reduced .

Based on the results of the model simulation and analysis , we draw lessons from the energy policy of the international developed international . In this paper , we draw a suggestion of energy policy : first , to establish the energy reserve strategy , to adjust the energy production and consumption structure , to strengthen the attention to the environment , to make rational use of the international market , to strengthen the macro - control and avoid the adverse factors , thus to promote the development of the economy and society .

【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21;N941.3

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