基于FCFF模型的生物医药类上市公司企业价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 10:51

【摘要】：随着我国宏观经济和资本市场的发展与成熟，以资本市场为中心展开的企业重组、并购等外部产权交易和内部投、融资等活动对企业价值评估的依赖性越来越强，价值评估已成为揭示企业价值创造能力和方式的主要工具，也成为金融、投资、财务等领域的重要研究内容，它的出现为企业进行战略分析、投资决策及价值管理提供了更多参考。同时近年来，随着“现金为王”理念的推崇和相关理论的完善，自由现金流及其折现模型逐步成为了衡量企业价值的重要依据，在价值评估中占据了主导地位。因此，从自由现金流角度来探讨企业价值评估问题也成为学者们关注的重点。目前，伴随着科学技术水平的提升和我国医疗制度的改革和推进，作为关系国计民生的重点行业之一，生物医药行业在国民经济中的重要地位越来越凸显，它已逐渐成为我国新的经济增长点和投资关注点，因此，研究该行业的企业价值评估问题对于我国生物医药企业尤其是上市公司改善管理，增强企业竞争力，促进企业持续发展，顺利实现不同主体的利益等具有重要意义。本文正是以此为切入点，从相关理论分析入手，首先对国内外学者在该领域的研究成果进行归纳总结，从而明确本文的写作目的及意义；其次对企业价值评估理论和自由现金流理论进行了深入的剖析，并对自由现金流模型的评估原理进行了介绍；再次描述了生物医药企业的行业特征并以以上理论分析为基础，选取33家在沪深两市上市的A股生物医药类公司作为研究对象进行实证分析，，用自由现金流模型对该类上市公司企业价值进行评估，再对评估结果与股价进行相关性分析，结果表明，以自由现金流模型评估的企业内在价值与股价虽然不完全一致，但二者之间有着高度的相关性，从而验证了该价值评估模型在生物医药类上市公司的适用性；最后，根据分析结果，透视该模型的主要影响因素，并选取相关指标，运用spss17.0统计软件进行主成分分析，再根据各主成分得分及排名将样本企业分为4类，并有针对性的对四类企业提出价值提升途径及策略，从而为该类上市公司企业价值评估模型的选择及企业价值的提升方法提供借鉴和依据，为投资者做出正确的投资决策提供参考，最终促进生物医药产业持续、健康、稳定发展。
[Abstract]:With the development and maturity of China's macro economy and capital market, the external property rights transactions, internal investment and financing activities, such as mergers and acquisitions, which center on the capital market, have become more and more dependent on the evaluation of enterprise value. Value evaluation has become the main tool to reveal the ability and method of enterprise value creation, and has also become an important research content in the fields of finance, investment, finance and so on. Investment decision and value management provide more reference. In recent years, with the promotion of "cash as king" and the improvement of relevant theories, free cash flow and its discount model have gradually become an important basis for measuring the value of enterprises, and occupy a dominant position in value evaluation. Therefore, from the perspective of free cash flow to explore the evaluation of enterprise value has become the focus of scholars. At present, with the improvement of science and technology and the reform and promotion of our medical system, as one of the key industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, the biomedical industry is becoming more and more important in the national economy. It has gradually become the new economic growth point and investment concern of our country. Therefore, the study of the enterprise value evaluation in this industry can improve the management and enhance the competitiveness of the biopharmaceutical enterprises, especially the listed companies. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of enterprises and realize the interests of different subjects. This article is based on this point, from the relevant theoretical analysis, first of all, the domestic and foreign scholars in the field of research results are summarized, so as to clarify the purpose and significance of this writing; Secondly, the theory of enterprise value evaluation and the theory of free cash flow are deeply analyzed, and the evaluation principle of free cash flow model is introduced, and then the industry characteristics of biomedical enterprises are described and based on the above theoretical analysis. This paper selects 33 A-share biopharmaceutical companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the research object, evaluates the value of the listed companies with the free cash flow model, and then analyzes the correlation between the evaluation results and the stock price. The results show that there is a high correlation between the internal value and the stock price of the enterprises assessed by the free cash flow model, but there is a high correlation between them, which verifies the applicability of the valuation model in the biomedical listed companies. According to the analysis results, the main influencing factors of the model are analyzed, and the relevant indexes are selected. The principal component analysis is carried out by using the spss17.0 statistical software, and then the sample enterprises are divided into 4 categories according to the score and ranking of each principal component. And put forward the way and strategy to enhance the value of the four kinds of enterprises, so as to provide reference and basis for the selection of the value evaluation model and the promotion method of the enterprise value of this kind of listed company. It provides reference for investors to make correct investment decision, and finally promotes the sustainable, healthy and stable development of biomedical industry.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.72

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