中国人造板行业木材需求预测
发布时间：2018-10-12 14:26
【摘要】：人造板是木材加工的主要工业产品之一,在家具制造业、建筑行业、装修装饰以及交通运输等多个领域有着广泛的应用；随着我国经济的发展和人口的增加,人造板消耗行业的规模越来越大,对人造板的消耗量与日俱增,因此人造板行业成为木材消耗的一个重要行业；在当今中国森林资源日益短缺的情况下,加上建筑行业在我国经济增长中有着举足轻重的作用,研究人造板行业对木材的需求不仅对我国森林资源的合理配置有着重要作用,对我国国民经济未来的发展也有一定的参考价值,同时也为我国林业和经济决策者制定相关政策和决定提供科学的参考依据。 人造板的种类有很多,主要产品有三种：胶合板、刨花板、纤维板；此外还有很多其他产品,如细木工板等。在人造板所有产品中,产量较大而又消耗原木的主要是胶合板和细木工板,其他板材,像刨花板和纤维板主要是以木材剩余物以及其他农作物如秸秆和甘蔗渣等为原料,故本论文主要以胶合板和细木工板为研究对象。论文在总结了前人对中国的木材供需和人造板行业研究的基础上,对中国2003-2012年胶合板和细木工板的市场供需、进出口贸易的发展变化进行了分析和研究,得出了中国胶合板和细木工板供需的主要影响因素。最后依据经济预测理论、经济弹性理论、供需平衡理论、系统动力学理论以及二次指数平滑预测方法,分别构建了中国胶合板市场供需系统动力学模型、细木工板二次指数平滑预测模型,并且将国民经济增长速度分为高速、中速、低速三个方案对2013-2017年未来5年胶合板和细木工板的供给量进行了预测。对预测结果再用胶合板和细木工板加工原木利用率折算成原木需求量,从而得到我国人造板行业未来5年的木材需求量,并对相关预测结果进行了总结和讨论。 模型预测结果显示,在高、中、低三种国民经济增长速度下,2017年人造板行业木材需求量分别为5.2亿m3、5.0亿m3、4.7亿m3,这对森林资源本来就比较匮乏的中国无疑是一个巨大的挑战。该结果还表明在不同的国民经济增长速度下,未来5年我国人造板行业对木材的需求量整体呈上升趋势,但是在不同的国民经济增长速度下对木材的需求量略有不同。
[Abstract]:Wood-based panel is one of the main industrial products of wood processing. It has been widely used in furniture manufacturing, construction industry, decoration and decoration, transportation and other fields. The scale of wood-based panel consumption industry is increasing, and the consumption of wood-based panel industry is increasing. Therefore, wood-based panel industry has become an important industry of wood consumption. In addition, the construction industry plays an important role in the economic growth of our country. The study of wood demand in the wood-based panel industry plays an important role not only in the rational allocation of forest resources, but also in the rational allocation of forest resources in China. It also has certain reference value for the future development of our national economy, and also provides scientific reference basis for our forestry and economic decision makers to make relevant policies and decisions. There are many types of wood-based boards, the main products are three: plywood, particleboard, fibreboard; in addition, there are many other products, such as wood board. Of all the products of wood-based panels, plywood and wood boards are the main sources of production and consumption of logs, and other plates, such as particleboard and fiberboard, are mainly made from wood residues and other crops such as straw and bagasse. Therefore, this paper mainly takes plywood and log board as the research object. On the basis of summarizing the previous researches on wood supply and demand and wood-based panel industry in China, the paper analyzes and studies the market supply and demand of plywood and woodboard in China from 2003 to 2012, and the development and change of import and export trade. The main factors influencing the supply and demand of plywood and log board in China are obtained. Finally, based on the economic prediction theory, economic elasticity theory, supply and demand balance theory, system dynamics theory and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method, the system dynamics model of Chinese plywood market is constructed. The quadratic exponential smoothing prediction model of the log board is used to predict the supply of plywood and log board in the next five years from 2013 to 2017. The growth rate of the national economy is divided into three schemes: high speed, medium speed and low speed. The forecast results are converted into log demand by using plywood and log board processing efficiency, and the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in our country in the next 5 years is obtained, and the related forecast results are summarized and discussed. The model forecast results show that under the three national economic growth rates of high, middle and low, the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in 2017 is 520 million m3, 500 million m3 and 470 million m3 respectively, which is undoubtedly a great challenge to China, where forest resources are already scarce. The results also show that the demand for wood in China's wood-based panel industry will increase in the next five years under different national economic growth rates, but the demand for wood will be slightly different under different national economic growth rates.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.88
本文编号：2266462
[Abstract]:Wood-based panel is one of the main industrial products of wood processing. It has been widely used in furniture manufacturing, construction industry, decoration and decoration, transportation and other fields. The scale of wood-based panel consumption industry is increasing, and the consumption of wood-based panel industry is increasing. Therefore, wood-based panel industry has become an important industry of wood consumption. In addition, the construction industry plays an important role in the economic growth of our country. The study of wood demand in the wood-based panel industry plays an important role not only in the rational allocation of forest resources, but also in the rational allocation of forest resources in China. It also has certain reference value for the future development of our national economy, and also provides scientific reference basis for our forestry and economic decision makers to make relevant policies and decisions. There are many types of wood-based boards, the main products are three: plywood, particleboard, fibreboard; in addition, there are many other products, such as wood board. Of all the products of wood-based panels, plywood and wood boards are the main sources of production and consumption of logs, and other plates, such as particleboard and fiberboard, are mainly made from wood residues and other crops such as straw and bagasse. Therefore, this paper mainly takes plywood and log board as the research object. On the basis of summarizing the previous researches on wood supply and demand and wood-based panel industry in China, the paper analyzes and studies the market supply and demand of plywood and woodboard in China from 2003 to 2012, and the development and change of import and export trade. The main factors influencing the supply and demand of plywood and log board in China are obtained. Finally, based on the economic prediction theory, economic elasticity theory, supply and demand balance theory, system dynamics theory and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method, the system dynamics model of Chinese plywood market is constructed. The quadratic exponential smoothing prediction model of the log board is used to predict the supply of plywood and log board in the next five years from 2013 to 2017. The growth rate of the national economy is divided into three schemes: high speed, medium speed and low speed. The forecast results are converted into log demand by using plywood and log board processing efficiency, and the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in our country in the next 5 years is obtained, and the related forecast results are summarized and discussed. The model forecast results show that under the three national economic growth rates of high, middle and low, the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in 2017 is 520 million m3, 500 million m3 and 470 million m3 respectively, which is undoubtedly a great challenge to China, where forest resources are already scarce. The results also show that the demand for wood in China's wood-based panel industry will increase in the next five years under different national economic growth rates, but the demand for wood will be slightly different under different national economic growth rates.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.88
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