长三角城市工业碳排放影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 16:27

【摘要】：长三角地区已成为我国经济总量规模最大、经济发展速度最快、发展前景最为广阔的经济核心区域。改革开放之后，尤其是20世纪90年代以来，长三角地区的经济发展跨入了现代化的新阶段。作为中国近代民族工业的发源地，长三角地区的工业发展对于其经济发展起到了主导作用。2012年，长三角地区实现规模以上工业总产值17.35万亿元，比上年同期增长了6.9%，在2000-2011年期间，长三角6个主要城市上海、南京、苏州、无锡、杭州和宁波的工业总产值总和的年平均增长为18.69%。工业经济的飞速发展需要消耗大量的能源资源，但长三角地区一直以来能源资源十分匮乏，一次能源绝大部分需要从区外调入或进口。2007年，长三角的能源消耗总量达44871万吨，能源消费总量占全国比重16.9%，能耗增长速度为9.82%，高于国家平均水平7.80%的速度。2011年，长三角主要的6个城市的工业能源消费总量相比2000年增长了1.56倍，在此条件下，到2020年，长三角地区的GDP要在2000年基础上翻两番，能源的需求量也必将大幅度增加。随着能源消耗的增加，工业二氧化碳的排放量也将不断上升，在长三角6个城市各自的研究样本期间内，CO2的年平均增长速度都在5%以上，节能减排的形势十分严峻。由此可见，工业的发展在促进长三角地区经济发展的同时也对其环境造成了巨大的污染，，不利于经济的可持续发展。本文通过因素分解模型和面板数据模型实证分析了影响长三角地区城市的工业二氧化碳排放的主要因素。首先，文章介绍了CO2减排的研究背景及意义，并就目前国内外关于经济发展与二氧化碳排放关系等相关领域的研究现状进行理论综述，为后面的实证分析奠定理论基础；其次分析了2000-2011年期间长三角地区主要的6个城市的工业经济发展、能源消费及CO2排放的现状和变化趋势，通过建立LMDI模型和面板数据模型分析了长三角地区6个城市工业碳排放变化的影响因素及程度；最后针对每个城市工业细分不同的行业从多个角度提出对策建议，以求促进长三角城市工业的可持续发展。通过理论和实证的分析研究，本文得到以下几个结论：导致工业二氧化碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素是工业经济发展，抑制因素是能源强度，工业部门内部结构也在一定程度上减缓了工业碳排放的增长速度，但抑制作用没有能源强度大，能源消费结构对于碳排放的促进或抑制作用不是很明显；从工业分行业来看，长三角6个城市的工业二氧化碳量增加最为明显的行业主要集中在黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力、热力的生产和供应业等高能耗行业，它们的工业经济发展较快，且行业总产值的比重较高，所以在优化和调整产业结构时应当注重这些行业；石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力、热力的生产和供应业的能源强度的变化抵消了大部分由其他行业所增加的碳排放，所以可以通过引进和应用先进生产技术和设备来降低能源强度，提高能源的使用效率。此外，工业人口规模也是导致碳排放增加的一个重要因素，在将来的节能减排过程中也要注意继续控制工业平均从业人员的不断膨胀，从而进一步减小其对工业碳排放的促进作用。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River Delta region has become the most economic core region with the largest economic aggregate scale, the fastest economic development speed and the development prospect. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the 1990s, the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has entered a new stage of modernization. As the source of modern national industry in China, the industrial development of the Yangtze River Delta region has played a leading role in the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta. In 2012, the total industrial output value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached 17.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 6. 9% over the same period of the previous year, during the period 2000-2011, The annual average annual growth of the total industrial output value of 6 major cities in the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Ningbo, was 18.69%. The rapid development of the industrial economy needs to consume a large amount of energy resources, but the energy resources in the Yangtze River Delta region have been scarce, and most of the energy resources need to be transferred or imported from the outside of the region. In 2007, the total energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta was 44871. In 2011, the total industrial energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000, and under this condition, the total energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000. In the 0-year period, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta region will be doubled on the basis of the year 2000, and the demand for energy will also be greatly increased With the increase of energy consumption, the emission of industrial carbon dioxide will also rise, and the annual average growth rate of CO2 is over 5% during each of the six cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is very important It can be seen that the development of the industry has caused great pollution to the environment of the Yangtze River Delta, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the economy. In this paper, the industrial carbon dioxide emission in the city of the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed by the factor decomposition model and the panel data model. First of all, the paper introduces the research background and significance of CO2 emission reduction, and reviews the current situation of research on the relationship of economic development and carbon dioxide emission at home and abroad. The paper analyses the current situation and trend of industrial and economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emission of six cities in the Yangtze River Delta region during the period 2000-2011, and analyzes the effect of the change of carbon emission in 6 cities in the Yangtze River Delta by establishing the model of LMDI and the data model of the panel. In the end, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to the different industries in order to promote the city industry in the Yangtze River Delta. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, the following conclusions are obtained: the main driving factors leading to the increase of the industrial carbon dioxide emission are the development of the industrial economy and the suppression of the development of the industrial economy. The manufacturing factor is the energy intensity, and the internal structure of the industrial sector has slowed the growth rate of the industrial carbon emission to a certain extent, but the inhibition effect does not have the great energy intensity, and the energy consumption structure is not obvious to the promotion or the inhibition of the carbon emission; From the industrial point of view, the most obvious industries of the industrial carbon dioxide in the six cities of the Yangtze River Delta are mainly concentrated in the high energy consumption industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electric power, thermal power production and supply industry, and their industrial and economic development is fast, and the industry The proportion of the output value is high, so it is necessary to pay attention to these industries in the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure; the changes in the energy intensity of the production and supply of the oil, the coking and the nuclear fuel processing industry, the ferrous metal smelting and the rolling processing industry, the electric power, the thermal power, and the supply industry cancel most of the other lines the carbon emissions from the industry can be reduced by the introduction and application of advanced production techniques and equipment, In addition, the scale of industrial population is an important factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions. In the process of energy-saving and emission reduction, it is also important to pay attention to the continuous expansion of industrial average workers, thus further reducing its impact on industry
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;X22

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