金融发展在中国经济增长中的作用研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 15:16

  本文关键词：金融发展在中国经济增长中的作用研究　出处：《南开大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 金融发展 经济增长 作用机制 非线性关系

【摘要】：金融作为现代经济的核心,对经济增长具有重要的影响作用。在这一点上,学者们基本上已达成共识。但是对于金融发展对经济增长的具体作用机制,尚存在一定的争议。其中,一些学者认为金融发展与经济增长之间存在非线性的关系,且在不同国家不同时期金融发展的作用也存在差异。为此,本文对金融发展在我国经济增长中的作用机制进行探究。 首先,本文对国内外学者关于金融发展在经济增长中作用方式的理论与实证研究文献进行较为系统地梳理与述评,以便为后文的研究提供理论与方法等方面的借鉴。 随后通过构建内生经济增长模型来探讨了金融发展对经济增长的作用机制。文章将金融部门分为银行存贷部门与金融创新部门两类,前者通过提高储蓄——投资转化率来促进物资资本积累,后者则是通过为技术研发提供直接融资来推动生产技术水平提升。这样,金融发展通过这两种作用渠道拉动经济增长。之后,通过利用中国经济数据对这一增长模型的结果进行数值模拟分析发现,金融发展确实能够促进经济增长,但金融两个部门的作用机制不尽相同,由此可能导致金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系。 在对金融发展在我国经济增长中的作用进行分析之前,需要对我国经济增长与金融发展的状况要有一定的了解。为此,本文介绍了建国以来我国经济增长的基本情况,主要是对1952年以来(部分是1978年以来)我国经济在增长中所呈现出来的总量特征、结构特征以及区域特征分别进行统计研究,发现我国经济增长在近60多年(或30多年)以来取得了巨大成就,但也存在一定的问题。 之后,文章主要叙述了改革开放以来我国金融发展与改革的历程与现状。同时,笔者在总结学者们关于衡量金融发展的各种指标基础上,选取了一些比较适合反映我国金融发展的指标,之后对我国金融发展的整体特征与区域特征进行经验描述,发现改革开放以来我国金融业得到了长足的发展,但仍需进一步改革。 在对我国经济增长与金融发展有了一定了解之后,本文着重研究全国范畴下金融发展对我国经济增长的影响方式。由于金融发展对经济增长的作用方式可能是非线性的,为此笔者运用可变参数的空间状态模型与结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型分别对我国年度和季度的相关数据进行实证研究,发现金融发展对经济增长的作用在1996年前后分为两个明显差异的阶段,即1996年以前金融发展的作用较小,而1996年之后该作用较大且相对稳定。 在分析全国情况之后,笔者侧重研究我国金融发展对区域经济增长的作用方式,采用的基本分析方法为面板门限模型,同时考虑到我国区域经济增长与金融发展的空间集聚特征,笔者将空间面板方法与面板门限模型相结合来对金融发展的非线性作用予以进一步的探究。该部分的经验研究表明,金融发展对区域经济增长的作用存在门限效应,在低于一定的门限值之前,金融发展的促进作用较弱,而超过该门限值之后,金融发展的拉动作用凸显。 最后,笔者归纳了本文分析所得出的基本结论,并指出在未来进一步研究中的可能方向。并且根据分析结论所蕴含的政策含义,笔者分别对促进我国金融发展与推动经济增长提出了若干政策措施。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy, has an important effect on the economic growth. At this point, the scholars have basically reached a consensus. But the specific mechanism of financial development on economic growth, there are still some controversy. Among them, some scholars believe that there is a non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth, and there are different countries in different periods of financial development difference. Therefore, the development mechanism in China's economic growth in the financial research.
First of all, this paper systematically reviews and reviews the literatures on the ways and means of financial development in economic growth at home and abroad, so as to provide references for future research.
Then by constructing the endogenous economic growth model to investigate the effect of financial development on economic growth mechanism. The financial sector will be divided into bank loan department and financial innovation department two, the former by increasing savings investment conversion rate to promote the accumulation of physical capital, the latter is by providing direct financing for technology research and development to promote the production technology to enhance the level of financial development. In this way, through the two channels to promote economic growth. After that, numerical simulation analysis by using the China economic data on the growth of the model results, financial development can promote economic growth, but the role of the mechanism of the two financial sector is not the same, which may lead to the nonlinear relationship between financial development with the economic growth.
Before the financial development in China's economic growth on the role of the need for China's economic growth and financial development status have a certain understanding. Therefore, this paper introduces the basic situation of China's economic growth since the founding of new China, mainly since 1952 (partly since 1978) the total characteristics of China's economy which appear in the growth, structure characteristics and regional characteristics were statistical research, found that China's economic growth in the past 60 years (or 30 years) has made great achievements, but there are also some problems.
After that, the article mainly describes the history and current situation of the development and reform of Finance in China since the reform and opening up. At the same time, the author summarizes various scholars based on the measure index of financial development, choosing some suitable to reflect the development of China's financial indicators, the overall characteristics and regional characteristics of China's financial development experience the description, found that since the reform and opening of China's financial industry has been considerable development, but still need further reform.
After a certain understanding of China's economic growth and financial development, this paper focuses on the research of the category under the influence of financial development on China's economic growth. As a result of the financial development may be nonlinear effect on economic growth, the state space model and the structure of the use of variable parameter vector autoregressive (SVAR) empirical study on model data relevant to the China annual and quarterly, found that the effect of financial development on economic increase in 1996 and divided into two different stages, namely, before 1996, the role of financial development is small, but after 1996 the effect is large and relatively stable.
After analyzing the situation, research on China's financial development on the role of regional economic growth on the basic analysis method using the panel threshold model, taking into account China's regional economic growth and financial development of the spatial agglomeration characteristics, the spatial panel method and panel threshold model combined with nonlinear effect on financial development to further explore experience. The part of the study shows that there is a threshold effect of financial development on regional economic growth, before below a certain threshold, the role of financial development is weak, but after more than the threshold value, highlighting the stimulating effect of financial development.
Finally, the author summarizes the basic conclusions obtained in this paper, and points out the possible directions for further research in the future. Based on the policy implications of the conclusion, the author puts forward several policy measures for promoting China's financial development and promoting economic growth respectively.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F124.1
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本文编号：1360314