我国创业板上市公司估值研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 08:06

本文关键词：我国创业板上市公司估值研究　出处：《天津师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：创业板作为资金融通的渠道存在,为科技型和服务类的创业中小企业提供了便捷的选择；但是创业板本身存在时间短,成熟市场上运用有效的估值方法和理论在迁移到创业板时,需要考虑其自身特征和上市企业的行业属性。本文对创业板的发展历程和创建基础做了梳理,对应用成熟估值方法对创业企业估值做出了初步的探讨,并且以2013年的股市月度数据对相对估值法中的市盈率、动态市盈率、市净率和市销率等在应用中的长处和局限性做出了讨论,对剩余收益模型进行改造使其和估值比率结合反映创业板股票价格波动规律。本文还对各主要市场及指数间在市盈率等指标间的差异做了描述性统计,得出创业板自身在生命周期内的特色；此外,对创业板内的行业市盈率间的差别做了相关变量统计,认为市盈率在公共服务领域内的差别不大,在其他行业内的差别比较明显尤其是在商业服务和科技领域。在对创业板发展历程的研究中,本文做了比较分析,以国外创业板及我国香港及大陆创业板的发展历程做出划分,对主板市场和创业板的差异、中外创业板的差异都做了细致的整理工作,在对比中主要涉及上市及退市制度和信息披露方面的差别以及指标要求的沿革；在对创业板建立基础的分析中,通过借鉴以往的研究成果,认为主要包含交易层面、技术层面、产业层面和国家战略层面的基础性变革要求。本文结论主要有：(1)成熟市场关于股票定价的折现现金流模型并不适用于直接对创业板进行估值,因为该方法预测现金流稳定可预期不符合创业板公司的基本事实；(2)相对估价法在实际应用中展现了它的价值,作为可比公司的选定上,以历史的公司自身作为比较,虽然可能导致循环论证的结果,但是估值的本质也并不在于给出精确的数值：(3)剩余收益模型将会计数据和公司价值联系起来,利用其思想结合账面净资产可以得到持续经营的公司价值；(4)创业板的建立有一定的历史和逻辑基础,在其发展过程中人们对其认识逐渐加深；虽然目前CAPM模型验证其并非有效市场,但是作为中国自主创新行业资本流动的快捷渠道已经展现出不同的特征；(5)综合指标对股价的解释能力要低于更为细化的行业和概念指标。
[Abstract]:The gem as a financing channel, provides a convenient choice for science and technology and service business of small and medium-sized enterprises; but the gem itself exists in a short time, the mature market valuation method and the theory of effective use of the gem in the migration, the need to consider its own characteristics and attributes of the industry. This paper listed enterprise development the course of the gem and create a foundation to do the sort, the application of mature valuation method to make a preliminary study on enterprise valuation, and the stock market in 2013 monthly data on the relative valuation method in earnings, earnings dynamic, strengths and limitations, and the net rate of sales ratio in the application of the discussion on the residual income model to the transformation and combination of the gem valuation ratio can reflect the law of stock price fluctuation. The major market index and between earnings and other indicators of the difference Do different descriptive statistics, the gem itself in the life cycle characteristics; in addition, the difference between the price earnings ratio of the gem in the industry to do the related variables statistics, that earnings in the public service in the field of little difference in other industries the difference more obvious especially in the field of science and technology and business services in the research on the development history of the gem, this paper made a comparative analysis on the development process of overseas gem and Hongkong and Mainland China gem to divide, differences on the main market and gem, gem of the difference between China and foreign countries have done a detailed finishing work, in contrast, mainly related to the listing and delisting system and information disclosure requirements of the difference and the index; in the analysis is based on the gem, by referring to the previous research results, mainly includes the transaction level, technical level, production The basic change requirements of the industry level and the national strategic level.
In this paper, the main conclusions are: (1) the mature market on the stock pricing model of discount cash flow does not apply to direct the valuation of the gem, because this method can be expected to forecast cash does not conform to the basic facts of the gem's steady flow; (2) the relative valuation method in the practical application shows its value as the comparable companies selected, in the history of the company itself as a comparison, although it may lead to circular reasoning results, but also the essence of valuation is not give accurate numerical: (3) the residual income model accounting data and the company value of the link, using the thought of combination of the carrying amount of the net assets value of the company can get sustainable management; (4) the establishment of GEM has a historical and logical basis, in the process of development of the understanding of the people gradually deepened; although the CAPM model to verify its effect but not the market. As a fast way of capital flow in China's independent innovation industry, it has shown different characteristics. (5) the explanatory power of comprehensive index to share price is lower than the more detailed industry and conceptual indicators.

【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F276.6

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