甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 06:59

本文关键词： 农村金融发展农村消费实证分析甘肃省　出处：《兰州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济增长方式的转型,经济增长对出口的依存度逐渐降低,投资对经济的拉动作用也逐渐疲软,这使得消费成为拉动我国经济增长的主力军,在城镇消费逐步饱和的情况下,深度挖掘农村消费刻不容缓,而在众多影响消费的因素中,金融的作用是举足轻重的,金融对消费有极大的推动作用。甘肃省作为典型的西部欠发达省份,其农村消费市场发展缓慢,如果能够借助其农村金融发展有效的开拓甘肃省农村消费市场,将会对甘肃省农村经济发展甚至国内消费的开发产生重要的现实意义。本文首先针对国内外学者对农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的研究进行综述,然后回顾农村金融发展以及农村消费相关理论,梳理学者对农村金融发展理论及农村消费理论的主要论点。在此基础上,对农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的作用机制进行理论分析,认为农村金融发展可以通过促进农村经济发展、促进农民收入增加、扩大消费需求总量、促进农村消费结构升级四方面来促进农村消费市场发展。在实证检验之前,对甘肃省农村金融发展和农村消费市场发展现状进行分析,对甘肃省农村金融发展现状的研究主要分为金融规模、金融效率、金融结构三个方面,对甘肃省农村消费市场的研究也分为三个方面：人均消费水平、消费差距、消费结构,针对现状指出目前甘肃省农村金融及农村消费市场存在的不足。在实证部分,选取1988-2009年间甘肃省相关数据,运用规范分析与实证分析方法,通过建立模型以及经过单位根检验、协整检验及协整方程、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证检验方法从消费需求和消费结构两个方面来研究甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费市场发展的影响；然后,得出甘肃省农村金发展能够有效促进农村消费市场发展的结论,并给出相关改善甘肃省农村金融发展的建议,以期能为促进甘肃省农村金融市场发展提供可能的参考。
[Abstract]:With the transformation of our country's economic growth mode, the dependence of economic growth on exports is gradually decreasing, and the pulling effect of investment on the economy is gradually weakening, which makes consumption become the main force to stimulate the economic growth of our country. In the case of gradual saturation of urban consumption, it is urgent to dig into rural consumption in depth, and the role of finance is very important among the many factors that affect consumption. As a typical underdeveloped western province, Gansu Province has a slow development of rural consumer market, if it can effectively open up the rural consumer market of Gansu Province with the help of its rural financial development. It will play an important role in the development of rural economy and even domestic consumption in Gansu Province. In this paper, the domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of rural financial development on the rural consumer market were reviewed, and then reviewed the rural financial development and rural consumption related theories. Combing the main arguments of scholars on rural financial development theory and rural consumption theory. On this basis, the impact of rural financial development on rural consumer market mechanism is theoretically analyzed. It is believed that rural financial development can promote the development of rural consumption market by promoting rural economic development, promoting the increase of farmers' income, expanding the total amount of consumption demand and promoting the upgrading of rural consumption structure. Before the empirical test, the paper analyzes the current situation of rural financial development and rural consumer market in Gansu Province. The research on the current situation of rural financial development in Gansu Province is mainly divided into financial scale and financial efficiency. Three aspects of financial structure, Gansu Province rural consumer market research is also divided into three aspects: per capita consumption level, consumption gap, consumption structure. To point out the current situation of Gansu Province rural finance and rural consumer market deficiencies. In the empirical part, select 1988-2009 relevant data in Gansu Province, using normative analysis and empirical analysis methods. Granger causality test is established by establishing model, unit root test, cointegration test and cointegration equation. The impact of rural financial development on rural consumption market in Gansu Province is studied from two aspects of consumption demand and consumption structure by using impulse response analysis and other empirical testing methods. Then, the paper draws the conclusion that the development of rural gold can effectively promote the development of rural consumer market in Gansu Province, and gives some suggestions to improve the rural financial development of Gansu Province. In order to promote the development of rural financial markets in Gansu Province to provide possible reference.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.35;F323.8

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