中国利率市场化研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 11:41

本文关键词： 利率市场化商业银行存款利率货币市场资本市场货币政策　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2002年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 上个世纪70年代末至80年代，全球经济最引入注目的现象之一，就是如火如荼上演的一波又一波金融自由化的浪潮，而利率市场化是其核心内容，因为，利率不仅是金融体系中最重要的变量，也是市场经济最基础的变量之一。缺少市场化的利率机制，市场经济至少是不完整的，这正是利率市场化成为20世纪末以来世界趋势的主要原因。在这个意义上，研究利率市场化，也是在研究金融自由化。在理论文献中，利率市场化又称利率自由化，指利率不再由货币当局直接决定，而逐步由市场供求自由决定，货币当局更多地以市场参与主体的身份通过市场交易等方式间接影响利率变动。利率市场化改革的要旨不是调节利率水平，而是改革利率(资金价格)的形成机制，使之成为反映宏观经济运行状况的准确价格信号。利率管制的初衷是控制金融资产的分配，并通过这种控制加强银行体系的安全，并促进经济增长。发达国家的利率管制源于1929～1933年大萧条，例如美国于1933年颁布的《银行法》，有了著名的“Q条例”的规定。发展中国家是在二战后，为低成本积累资本，加速经济增长，对利率开始实行管制。到20世纪七、八十年代后，利率管制政策的优势逐渐降低，所产生的弊端开始暴露。发达国家由于利率管制反而造成银行业经营状况恶化，发展中国家多数出现结构性缺陷，企业高负债经营，资金利用效率过低。因此，利率市场化开始逐渐成为各国经济持续发展的必由之路。在中国现已加入WTO的情况下，金融会遇到很多问题，，包括利率、汇率是否完全放开、能否保证货币政策的有效性以及资本自由流动与否。以上问题的平衡至关重要，如果不能同时解决好，就要有侧重、有取舍，需要以更灵活的手段来调控。其中，建立一个市场化的利率体系是很重要的手段之一。可以说，利率市场化问题在中国加入WTO后，变得日趋紧迫了。针对我国利率市场化改革，本论文回顾、分析和判断了其进程；挖掘了我国利率市场化改革的内在逻辑；分析了我国利率与宏观经济指标间的相关度和敏感性；分析并指出了当前利率市场化改革的难点及其原因，提出了需要进一步完善的微观、中观和宏观条件。具体来说，本论文主要内容包括：论文第一和第二章，重点介绍了利率市场化的理论、实践及其对经济增长和增长机制的绩效。第一章，在综述经典利率理论、金融自由化理论和金融约束理论的基础上，提出：不能为利率市场化而利率市场化，利率市场化不是一放了之，需要结合本国实际，着力发挥利率正向效应，真正使利率政策产生作用。为进一步说明这一观点，分析了各国利率市场化改革的实践经验和教训，并以美国为例，总结了利率市场化改革的经验与启示。第二章，介绍了利率市场化对经济增长的作用，包括利率市场化的储蓄效应、投资效应和优化资源配置效应等，指出我国虽然还存在一些金融抑制的特点，但由于利率水平及资金供求总量形势已趋超越金融抑制理论解释的范围，所以我国利率市场化对增长的绩效将更多地体现在增长机制的转变上。论文第三章开始重点对中国利率市场化的研究。首先，对中国利率市场化改革进程作出分析和判断。指出由于学术界对利率市场化讨论范围的不同，导致对中国利率市场化进程判断的迢异。提出本文讨论和界定中国利率市场化的范围是全部金融活动，即将银行市场、金融市场，乃至非正规的资金融通都包括在内。依据这一判断标准，本文认为，中国利率市场化的初始状态，是在非国有经济内以及非国有经济部分和国有经济部分的结合点上，以非正规金融为依托展开的。正规金融使利率市场化迈开了实质性的步伐。文中提出中国在利率市场化的道路上已经走得比较远了，仅剩下国有商业银行的（人民币）存款利率尚未被自由化浪潮所触及。通过对中国利率市场化进程的回顾，可以清晰地看出，利率市场化改革与中国整体经济改革之间表现出近似一致的改革脉络——内生性。为更深人地理解中国利率市场化进程，掌握利率市场化进程的规律，论文第四章对中国利率市场化改革的内在逻辑进行了深入的理论探讨。提出中国利率市场化改革具有与经济体制改革相同的改革逻辑，即边际改革（增量改革），并通过资金市场的“双轨制”特征，详细阐述了“双轨制”的资金市场是中国利率市场化改革的内生动力。第五章，运用回归计量分析检验了利率指标与储蓄、消费、投资间的相关程度和敏感性，旨在说明利率指标在宏观经济中己经扮演了非常重要的角色。这暗示出，利率市场化改革在我国的必要性。因为，从逻辑上讲，只有当利率己经对我国经济运行发挥了日益重要的作用，推动利率市场化才更具有合理性。换言之，为了避兔为市场化而市场化的空洞讨论，我们必须首先探寻利率与经济运行之间的内在关系。第六章，从商业银行特点的角度，分析了存款利率市场化改革是难点的原因。这些特点分别包括：商业银行的存款构成了央行货币供应量的最重要部分；商业银行的支付清算服务具有“准公共产品”的性质：商业银行是生产金融信息最重要的部门，也是提供金融信息最基础部门；利差一直是
[Abstract]:The last century at the end of 70s to 80s, the global economy is one of the most striking phenomena, is like a raging fire staged a wave of the wave of financial liberalization, interest rate marketization is the core content, because the interest rate is not only the most important variable in financial system, also is one of the most basic economic variables. The lack of market interest rate the mechanism of the market, the market economy is not complete at least, this is the interest rate market has become the main trend of the world since the end of twentieth Century. In this sense, the study of interest rate marketization, but also in the research of financial liberalization.
In the theoretical literature, the interest rate market and interest rate liberalization, the interest rate is no longer directly decided by the monetary authorities, and gradually by the market supply and demand the freedom to decide, the monetary authorities more by market participants the identity of the impact of interest rate changes by way of indirect market transactions. The aim of interest liberalization is not to adjust interest rates, but the reform the interest rate (the price of funds) the formation mechanism, making accurate price signals reflect the macroeconomic situation.
The interest rate control is the original intention of controlling the distribution of financial assets, and through this control to strengthen the safety of the banking system, and promote economic growth in developed countries. The control of interest rates from 1929~1933 years of the great depression, for example, in 1933 the United States announced the "Bank Law >, the famous" Q "rules. In the developing countries after World War II, the accumulation of capital is low cost, accelerating economic growth, interest rates began to implement the control. By twentieth Century seven, after 80s, the interest rate control policy advantages gradually reduced, disadvantages arising from the beginning of exposure. Developed countries due to the interest rate regulation in banking but caused deterioration in business conditions, most developing countries there is a structural defect, companies with high debt operation, low efficiency of fund utilization. Therefore, the interest rate market began to become the only way which must be passed sustained economic development of all countries.
In China has joined the WTO, the finance will encounter many problems, including interest rates, exchange rates are fully liberalized, can guarantee the validity of monetary policy and free flow of capital. The crucial balance, if not solved at the same time, it should focus on a trade-off, need to control in a more flexible methods. Among them, the establishment of a market-oriented interest rate system is one of the important means. It can be said that the interest rate marketization in China after joining WTO, it is more and more urgent.
In view of China's market-oriented interest rate reform, this paper review, analyze and judge the process; mining the internal logic of China's interest rate marketization reform; analyzes the correlation and sensitivity of China's interest rate and macroeconomic indicators; analysis and pointed out the difficulties and reasons of the current interest rate market reform, put forward to to further improve the micro, meso and macro conditions. Specifically, the main contents of this thesis include:
The first and second chapter, mainly introduces the marketization of interest rate in theory, practice and performance of economic growth and growth mechanism. In the first chapter, reviewed classical interest rate theory, put forward the basic theory of financial liberalization and financial restraint theory, not for the marketization of interest rate and the interest rate market, the interest rate market is not a put that requires a combination of their own reality, exert positive effect of interest rate, the real interest rate policy effects. In order to further illustrate this point of view, the analysis of national interest rate marketization reform practice experience and lessons, and in the United States as an example, summarizes the experience and Enlightenment of the market-oriented interest rate reform.
The second chapter introduces the effect of interest rate marketization on economic growth, including the savings effect of interest rate marketization, investment effect and the optimization of resource allocation effect. It points out that although there are some characteristics of financial repression in China, interest rates and funds are also important.
The total supply and demand situation has gone beyond the scope of the financial restraining theory, so the interest rate marketization will be more effective for the growth.
It is reflected in the transformation of the growth mechanism.
The third chapter of the paper begins to focus on the study of China's interest rate marketization. First, the reform process of China's interest rate marketization is made.
It is pointed out that the difference in the scope of interest rate marketization in the academic circle leads to the process of interest rate marketization in China.
The quite difference. This paper discusses and defines the Chinese interest rate market is in the range of all financial activities, the bank market, gold
Market integration and even informal financial accommodation are included. According to this criterion, the Chinese interest rate market is considered in this paper.
The initial state of the transformation is in the non state economy and the combination of the non state economy and the state-owned economy.
Regular finance has made the interest rate marketization a substantial step. It is proposed that China is in the interest rate market.
The road on the field has gone far, and the interest rate of only the state-owned commercial banks (RMB) has not been liberalized.
The wave has touched it.
Through the review of the process of China's interest rate marketization, it can be clearly seen that the reform of interest rate marketization and the overall economy of China
In order to understand the process of China's interest rate marketization, the process of interest rate marketization should be understood deeply.
In order to grasp the law of interest rate marketization, the fourth chapter of the paper has carried on the deep theory to the internal logic of the reform of Chinese interest rate marketization.
The reform of China's interest rate market reform has the same reform logic as the reform of the economic system, that is, the Marginal Reform (incremental reform).
According to the characteristics of "double track" in the capital market, the capital market of "double track system" is the Chinese interest rate market in detail.
The endogenous impetus of the reform of the field.
In the fifth chapter, the correlation degree and sensitivity of interest rate indicators and savings, consumption and investment are tested by regression econometric analysis.
Sensibility is designed to show that interest rates have played a very important role in the macro-economy.
The necessity of the reform of the field in our country, because, logically, only when interest rates have been exerting on our country's economic operation
The increasingly important role of promoting interest rate marketization is more reasonable. In other words, in order to avoid the market for the rabbit to market
We must first explore the inner relationship between interest rate and economic operation.
In the sixth chapter, from the point of view of the characteristics of commercial banks, this paper analyzes the reasons for the difficulties in the reform of the deposit interest rate marketization.
Including: the deposit of commercial banks constitutes the most important part of the central bank's monetary supply; the payment and liquidation of commercial banks
Service has the nature of "quasi public products": commercial banks are the most important departments for producing financial information and also provide gold.
The most basic Department of the fusion of information; the margin of interest is always

【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F832.1

【引证文献】