美国量化宽松货币政策效果研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 22:22

本文关键词： 美国量化宽松传导机制就业效应　出处：《广东财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机使得全球经济遭受重创，为了防止危机进一步深化，刺激经济复苏，美国、英国以及日本等一些受损严重国家的中央银行在尝试使用传统货币政策工具失败之后，立即采取非常规的货币政策如零利率承诺、以调整中央银行资产负债表的规模和/或结构的量化宽松货币政策等，效果不一。美国、英国及日本等国家的量化宽松货币政策备受关注，尤以美国为最。本文通过理解和梳理国内外相关研究，比较系统的分析了量化宽松货币政策的理论基础、传导机制、实践效果以及政策效应。其中，本文通过单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验、VAR模型等多种计量方法对美国量化宽松货币政策效应进行了实证检验。实证结果表明：首先，，美国量化宽松货币政策对于刺激经济增长是有效的。因为该政策膨胀了货币供给，而货币供给的扩张带来了物价水平的上涨和产出的提高，从而使得经济形势好转。因此，美国通过量化宽松货币政策应对本次金融危机总体而言是有效的；第二，美国量化宽松货币政策对于促进就业是有效的，但是由于大部分流动性进入到虚拟经济中，追逐资产的升值，所以对实体经济刺激并不是很大，导致就业效应不显著。最后结合实践效果和效应实证结果，本文就美国量化宽松货币政策对中国的启示进行了讨论，并对该政策可能带来的不利冲击提出了中国应该采取的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the global economy was hit hard by the financial crisis. In order to prevent the crisis from deepening and to stimulate economic recovery, the central banks of some seriously damaged countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, failed in trying to use traditional monetary policy instruments. The immediate adoption of unconventional monetary policies, such as zero interest rate commitments to adjust the size and / or structure of the balance sheet of the Central Bank, has had a mixed effect. Quantitative easing in countries such as the UK and Japan has attracted much attention, especially in the United States. This paper systematically analyzes the theoretical basis, transmission mechanism, practical effect and policy effect of the monetary policy of quantitative easing by understanding and combing the relevant studies at home and abroad. Cointegration test Granger causality test and VAR model are used to test the monetary policy effect of quantitative easing in the United States. The United States quantitative easing monetary policy is effective in stimulating economic growth, because it inflates the money supply, and the expansion of the money supply leads to higher prices and higher output, thus making the economic situation better. The United States is effective in dealing with the financial crisis through quantitative easing monetary policy. Second, quantitative easing monetary policy is effective in promoting employment, but most of the liquidity flows into the virtual economy. In pursuit of the appreciation of assets, the stimulus to the real economy is not great and the employment effect is not significant. Finally, combining with the practical effect and the empirical results of the effect, this paper discusses the implications of the monetary policy of quantitative easing in the United States to China. And put forward the countermeasures that China should adopt to the possible adverse impact of this policy.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F827.12

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