金融状况、通胀不确定性与通胀预测——基于Markov机制转换模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-11 20:56

本文选题：金融状况指数　切入点：通胀不确定性　出处：《当代经济研究》2012年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：一国的金融状况一般通过信贷传导机制、利率传导机制、汇率传导机制和资产价格传导机制来影响通胀水平并决定通胀趋势,但高通胀水平伴随着较大的通胀不确定性。FCI能有效预测我国的通胀趋势,高通胀状态下FCI对通胀趋势的预测能力强于低通胀状态;低通胀状态下FCI对通胀趋势的短期预测效果优于中长期。我国应尽快指定相关部门制定并定期公布FCI,充分发挥FCI的通胀预测功能,并以此帮助国家实施宏观经济监测、完善调控政策、提高通胀治理效率。要提高央行政策制定的透明度,应避免频繁的政策方向变动,政策调控应尽量平滑操作,从而维持货币政策的稳定性和连贯性、降低通胀不确定性。要充分利用低通胀环境赋予的有利时机推进价格等各项体制的改革。
[Abstract]:The financial situation of a country generally influences the inflation level and determines the inflation trend through the credit transmission mechanism, the interest rate transmission mechanism, the exchange rate transmission mechanism and the asset price transmission mechanism. However, the high inflation level is accompanied by greater inflation uncertainty. FCI can effectively predict the trend of inflation in China. The ability of FCI to predict the inflation trend is stronger than that of low inflation state under the condition of high inflation. Under the condition of low inflation, the short-term forecast effect of FCI on inflation trend is better than that in the medium and long term. Our country should appoint relevant departments to formulate and publish FCIs regularly as soon as possible, so as to give full play to the function of FCI inflation forecast, and to help the country to carry out macroeconomic monitoring. To improve the transparency of the central bank's policy formulation, it is necessary to avoid frequent policy direction changes, and the policy control should be as smooth as possible so as to maintain the stability and consistency of monetary policy. Reduce inflation uncertainty. Take full advantage of the favorable opportunities given by the low inflation environment to promote price and other institutional reforms.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY064、10CJY077) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目(09YJC790152) 江苏省“青蓝工程”
【分类号】：F832;F822.5;F224

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