政治风险对中国OFDI的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 23:18

本文选题：中国OFDI　切入点：政治风险　出处：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的飞速发展，融入世界经济一体化步伐的加快，中国企业“走出去”战略成效显著，但与此同时，也不可避免地会面临各种政治风险。然而，政治风险具有难以预测和控制的特点，而我国对外直接投资起步晚，积累的经验不足，对投资国家了解不够深入，特别是中国企业投资在政治风险较高的发展中国家的金额比重越来越多，因而政治风险的规避极其必要。由此可见，政治风险对中国OFDI的影响如何，中国OFDI会面临什么样的政治风险，以及如何规避投资中的政治风险，，尽量地减小政治风险发生引起的损失，这些问题都是值得深入研究的。本文首先对OFDI政治风险的概念、成因及其后果等理论进行了基础研究。而后阐述了当前中国OFDI面临政治风险的主要表现，并结合ICRG（国家风险投资指南）数据中的政治风险指数，进一步分析了中国对外直接投资情况。再在综合以往学者研究结论的基础上，考虑中国企业OFDI的实际情况，对政治风险与中国OFDI的关系提出基本假设，继而依据假设选定模型所需变量，对中国投资的110个国家2003-2012年的面板数据进行实证检验。根据实证结果，本文得出中国OFDI倾向于流入政治风险较高的国家这一主要结论。最后，本文根据政治风险对我国OFDI影响的分析结果，从政府和企业两个层面提出了规避政治风险的政策建议：政府应当建立OFDI政治风险评估体系及预警机制，健全OFDI保障立法，并构建防范OFDI政治风险的协调机制；而企业应做好政治风险评估和保险工作，实现多元化和本土化经营，及时采取自我保护策略，将政治风险导致的损失最小化。本文的创新之处在于：第一，整理总结了目前中国OFDI面临的主要政治风险，并结合ICRG的数据定量分析了中国OFDI的政治风险情况，得出中国OFDI偏向于流入政治风险较高国家的结论；第二，利用最新的数据，选择的样本比较全面，既包括了中、高收入的国家，也包括了政治风险突出的低收入国家。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of its integration into the world economy, Chinese enterprises'"going out" strategy has achieved remarkable results, but at the same time, it will inevitably face all kinds of political risks. Political risks are difficult to predict and control. However, China's foreign direct investment started late, accumulated insufficient experience, and did not have a deep understanding of the investment countries. In particular, Chinese enterprises are investing more and more in developing countries with high political risks, so it is extremely necessary to avoid political risks. From this, we can see how political risks affect China's OFDI. What kind of political risk China OFDI will face and how to avoid the political risk in investment and minimize the loss caused by political risk are all worthy of further study. In this paper, the concept, causes and consequences of the political risk of OFDI are studied, and then the main manifestations of the political risk faced by OFDI in China are expounded. Combined with the political risk index in the data of ICRG (National Venture Capital Guide), this paper further analyzes the situation of China's foreign direct investment. Then, on the basis of synthesizing the research conclusions of previous scholars, we consider the actual situation of Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The basic hypothesis of the relationship between political risk and China's OFDI is put forward, and then the panel data of 110 countries investing in China from 2003 to 2012 are tested empirically according to the hypothesis and the variables required by the model. This paper draws the main conclusion that China's OFDI tends to flow into countries with high political risk. Finally, according to the analysis of the influence of political risk on China's OFDI, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on avoiding political risk from the two aspects of government and enterprise: the government should establish OFDI political risk assessment system and early warning mechanism, perfect the legislation of OFDI guarantee, and construct the coordination mechanism to prevent the political risk of OFDI; In order to minimize the loss caused by political risk, enterprises should do well in political risk assessment and insurance, realize diversified and local management, and adopt self-protection strategy in time. The innovations of this paper are as follows: first, the main political risks faced by China's OFDI are summarized, and the political risks of China's OFDI are quantitatively analyzed with the data of ICRG. We draw the conclusion that China's OFDI tends to flow into countries with high political risk. Secondly, using the latest data, we choose a more comprehensive sample, which includes both middle and high income countries and low income countries with prominent political risks.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;D630

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