通胀预期环境对我国货币政策效力的影响——基于LSTR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-21 22:16

本文选题：通胀预期　切入点：货币供应量　出处：《经济管理》2012年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在梳理通胀预期与货币政策相互作用机理的基础上,基于1997～2011年的季度数据和非线性的LSTR模型,实证分析了我国货币政策在不同通胀预期环境中的实施效果。研究结果表明,通胀预期环境会显著影响我国的货币政策效力。在不同的通胀预期环境中,利率与货币供应量两种货币政策工具稳定物价的效果存在显著差异。当公众通胀预期程度较弱时,减少货币供应量比提高利率更容易有效控制实际物价水平,但当通胀预期程度较强时,利率政策稳定物价的效果优于货币供给量政策。因此,为提高货币政策的通胀治理效率,央行不但要稳定公众的通胀预期,还应根据不同的通胀预期环境选择更为有效的货币政策工具。
[Abstract]:On the basis of combing the mechanism of the interaction between inflation expectation and monetary policy, based on the quarterly data from 1997 to 2011 and the nonlinear LSTR model, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of monetary policy in different inflation expectation environments in China. Inflation expectation environment will significantly affect the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. In different inflation expectation environments, there are significant differences between interest rate and money supply in stabilizing prices. It is easier to control the real price level effectively by reducing the money supply than raising the interest rate, but when the degree of inflation expectation is strong, the effect of the interest rate policy to stabilize the price is better than the money supply policy. Therefore, in order to improve the inflation control efficiency of the monetary policy, Central banks should not only stabilise public inflation expectations, but also choose more effective monetary policy instruments based on different inflationary expectations.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国管理通胀预期与灵活审慎的货币政策研究”(10CJY064) 国家自然科学基金项目“考虑目标差异的政府R&D资助对企业技术创新的影响研究”(71203097)
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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