日本量化宽松政策对其国内宏观经济影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 12:07

本文选题：日本　切入点：超规模量化宽松政策　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在2008年国际金融危机之后,日本国内经济再次陷入疲软状态,通货紧缩与低利率水平并存,为了改善国内经济环境,刺激实体经济投资和消费,日本央行从2010年开始一直实施温和的量化宽松政策,但是对国内经济环境的改善并不显著,因此,日本央行为了摆脱长期的经济疲软局面,决定从2012年开始推行超规模的量化宽松政策。本文主要研究了在日本本轮量化宽松政策推行期间,日本央行官方货币政策会议决议的发布和主要领导人关于量化宽松政策的公开言论以及其他非官方渠道发布的有关该政策的信息对该政策的实施效果的作用。第一章导言部分在阐述了本文的选题背景和意义之后,详细分析了国内外有关本轮日本量化宽松政策的研究及言论,并在此基础上提出了本文研究的创新点是引入了信息发布的虚拟变量对日本量化宽松实施效果进行研究,同时提出了本文的研究思路和方法。第二章主要从几个不同的角度阐述了量化宽松政策的发展史,并且重点梳理了不同学派之间关于货币政策对实体经济传导机制的论点,并结合此次日本实施该量化宽松政策的背景提出了自己的观点。第三章主要是在前入研究货币政策的基础上提出了本文所使用的GARCH计量模型,并结合研究目标选取了合适的控制变量和虚拟变量。第四章选取了最新数据,在第三章模型的基础上,进行了模型的细分,并进行了相关的实证检验,并对检验结果进行了分析。第五章主要是结合本文实证研究的结果分析,提出了相应的结论,并在此基础上,梳理对我国量化宽松的相关货币政策的启示。研究表明日本实施量化宽松货币政策对日经指数有显著性正面影响,对消费者信心和企业信心有显著提升作用,降低了国内失业率,这些经验对于我国经济改革和金融发展具有较高的参考价值。
[Abstract]:After the 2008 international financial crisis, Japan's domestic economy was once again in a state of weakness. Deflation and low interest rates coexist. In order to improve the domestic economic environment and stimulate investment and consumption in the real economy, The Bank of Japan has been implementing moderate quantitative easing policies since 2010, but the improvement to the domestic economic environment has not been significant, so the Bank of Japan is trying to get rid of the long-term economic weakness. We have decided to implement the policy of excessive quantitative easing from 2012. This paper mainly studies the period of this round of quantitative easing in Japan. The impact of the issuance of the resolution of the Bank of Japan's official monetary policy meeting and public statements by key leaders on the policy of quantitative easing, as well as other unofficial information on the policy, on the effectiveness of the implementation of the policy. In the introduction part, after explaining the background and significance of this paper, This paper analyzes in detail the domestic and foreign research and comments on the policy of quantitative easing in Japan, and puts forward the innovation point of this paper, which is the introduction of virtual variables of information release to study the effect of quantitative easing in Japan. At the same time, it puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Chapter two mainly expounds the history of quantitative easing policy from several different angles, and mainly combs the arguments between different schools on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy. Combined with the background of this policy of quantitative easing in Japan, this paper puts forward its own viewpoint. Chapter three mainly puts forward the GARCH measurement model used in this paper on the basis of the previous study of monetary policy. The fourth chapter selects the latest data, on the basis of the model in chapter 3, carries on the subdivision of the model, and carries on the related empirical test, and then selects the appropriate control variable and the fictitious variable in combination with the research goal, the fourth chapter selects the newest data, carries on the model subdivision, and carries on the related empirical test. The fifth chapter is based on the analysis of the results of the empirical research in this paper, and put forward the corresponding conclusions, and on this basis, The research shows that the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan has a significant positive impact on the Nikkei index, and has a significant role in enhancing consumer confidence and business confidence. These experiences have a high reference value for China's economic reform and financial development.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F123.16;F823.13

【参考文献】